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By Rebecca Major
Updated 52 minutes ago
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Draws are currently challenging to predict due to inconsistent draw patterns from IRCC in 2025.
Predicted date: October 16-17, 2025
Type of Draw: Category-Based Express Entry Draws – French or Trades
CRS Prediction: 430+
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Given the volatility we’ve seen in Express Entry Draws, it is hard to predict the exact schedule for 2025. But we do estimate the following draws, based on past trends:
We estimate we may see Canadian Experience Class draws on the following dates:
There has been a great deal of turbulence in the schedule for Canadian Experience Class draws in 2025. Unfortunately, this makes it very challenging to predict when the next draw may take place. We understand that it’s frustrating for those of you in the pool waiting for an invitation to apply, and we’re sorry it’s happening.
Category-based draws in 2025 have shown a degree of unpredictability. However, Our estimates suggest that Category-Based Express Entry Draws are likely to be held on the following dates:
Canada’s 2025–2027 immigration levels plan significantly reduces Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) targets, cutting planned admissions from 120,000 in 2025 to 55,000, compared to an expected 110,000 in 2024. This sharp decrease will likely result in fewer invitations in PNP Express Entry draws in 2025, although draw frequency should remain similar to 2024- that is, one PNP draw every two weeks.
Provinces have recently been given the option to gain back some PNP spots lost in the 2025 allocations, on the condition that they accept more refugees. To date, Newfoundland and Labrador is the only province to take advantage of this, but we expect other provinces to be in talks with the federal government to regain reduced PNP spots. You can read more about this here.
The 2025–2027 immigration levels plan’s shift toward prioritizing in-Canada applicants indicates that more Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws may occur in 2025. While CEC draws were relatively consistent in late 2024 (excluding December), the number of invitations issued per draw was small. Looking ahead, we anticipate an increase in the number of invitations per draw while maintaining a biweekly draw frequency.
Just over 40,000 invitations are allocated for category-based draws in the 2025–2027 immigration levels plan. As a result, we expect to see one to two category-based draws a month, focusing on Healthcare, Trade and those with French language Proficiency.
With IRCC focusing more on in-Canada and category-based applicants this year, we don’t expect to see any general or all-program draws for the rest of 2025. So far, there haven’t been any general draws this year, and the last one was held on April 23, 2024. Based on how things are going, it would be quite surprising if IRCC decides to hold another general draw before the year ends.
It’s impossible to know exactly when the next Express Entry draw will happen. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has full discretion over the timing and type of draws — they could, in theory, hold one large draw a year or several smaller ones each week.
That said, IRCC usually aims to maintain a consistent schedule. This regularity helps build trust in the Express Entry system and allows IRCC to better manage application volumes.
At Moving2Canada, our team carefully tracks Express Entry trends, including changes in CRS scores, shifts in the candidate pool, and new immigration data and announcements from IRCC. We stay informed about the latest policy updates, draw patterns, and released government data so we can provide the most accurate and up-to-date predictions possible.
Also, our category-based draw estimates are based on data obtained through an Access to Information and Personal Information (ATIP) request made by RCIC Mandeep Lidher. In response to that request, IRCC shared its plans for the number of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) to be issued per category in 2025. These figures give us valuable insight into which categories may still see draws this year — and which ones may not.
Predicting the type of upcoming draws for the rest of 2025 is still challenging, but recent patterns and IRCC communications provide strong hints. We expect a continued focus on PNP and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws, aligning with IRCC’s commitment to help more temporary residents become permanent residents. IRCC will continue to prioritize Francophone immigration outside Quebec, so we expect to see more French-proficiency draws throughout the rest of 2025 as part of that effort.
The schedule of Express Entry draws is influenced by a range of factors. Understanding these can help you guess when the next draw might happen.
The Canadian government’s immigration policies and annual targets play a significant role in determining the frequency, size, and type of Express Entry draws.
Canada’s economic needs and labor market demands are also critical factors. The government may adjust the draw schedule based on the current economic climate and the demand for specific skills in the labor market.
Looking at historical trends can provide insights into the timing of draws. Typically, draws are held approximately every two weeks. However, this can vary due to administrative considerations, such as processing backlogs or policy changes. Monitoring the patterns over the past months or years can help predict future draws, though these are always subject to change.
Keeping informed about immigration updates in Canada can make a big difference in your Express Entry journey. Join the Moving2Canada community to get the latest news, insights, and updates — straight to your inbox.
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