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Updated on January 10, 2025
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Date: January 21st, 2025
Type of Draw: Provincial Nominee Program Draw
CRS Prediction: 790+
Join our newsletter to stay updated about draws and changes to Express Entry as they happen.
If you want to learn more about the latest Express Entry draw, check out our extremely popular Express Entry Draw Results webpage.
Given the volatility we’ve seen in Express Entry Draws, it is hard to predict the exact schedule for 2025. But we do estimate the following draws, based on past trends:
We estimate we may see Canadian Experience Class draws on the following date:
Canada’s 2025–2027 immigration levels plan significantly reduces Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) targets, cutting planned admissions from 120,000 in 2025 to 55,000, compared to an expected 110,000 in 2024. This sharp decrease will likely result in fewer invitations in PNP Express Entry draws in 2025, although draw frequency should remain similar to 2024- that is one PNP draw every two weeks.
The 2025–2027 immigration levels plan’s shift toward prioritizing in-Canada applicants indicates that more Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws may occur in 2025. While CEC draws were relatively consistent in late 2024 (excluding December), the number of invitations issued per draw was small. Looking ahead, we anticipate an increase in the number of invitations per draw while maintaining a biweekly draw frequency.
Just over 40,000 spots are allocated for category-based draws in the 2025–2027 immigration levels plan. As a result, we expect to see one to two category-based draws a month, focusing on Healthcare, Trade and those with French language Proficiency.
With a focus on in- Canada and category-based applicants, we will be surprised if we see any general or all program draws in 2025.
It’s not possible to know exactly when the next Express Entry draw will happen. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has complete discretion regarding Express Entry draws. They could, in theory, complete just one draw every year or complete tiny draws every day.
However, IRCC tends to try to complete draws on a regular schedule. It does this to increase confidence in the Express Entry system, and to allow them to manage application volumes internally. So, generally speaking, there is a strain on internal resources any time that the draw schedule moves away from the bi-weekly schedule. As a result, IRCC will likely conduct a draw every two weeks. Since May, IRCC has returned to holding draws every 2 weeks. We hope this consistency continues.
When it comes to predicting the type of draw, this is harder. We can look to historical data to guess the types of draws to come. For instance, recently, IRCC has held more PNP and CEC draws. That, along with the communication coming from IRCC on the topic of transitioning more temporary residents to permanent residents, brings us to the conclusion that IRCC will continue PNP and CEC draws. IRCC has also committed to welcoming more French-speaking immigrants to Canada. With this target, we can conclude that a good share of category-based draws will go to French speakers.
The schedule of Express Entry draws is influenced by a range of factors. Understanding these can help you guess when the next draw might happen.
The Canadian government’s immigration policies and annual targets play a significant role in determining the frequency, size, and type of Express Entry draws.
Canada’s economic needs and labor market demands are also critical factors. The government may adjust the draw schedule based on the current economic climate and the demand for specific skills in the labor market.
Looking at historical trends can provide insights into the timing of draws. Typically, draws are held approximately every two weeks. However, this can vary due to administrative considerations, such as processing backlogs or policy changes. Monitoring the patterns over the past months or years can help predict future draws, though these are always subject to change.
Staying informed about immigration in Canada can help you prepare for your Express Entry journey. A free Moving2Canada account can help. You’ll receive free access to our newsletters, immigration checklists, and a host of other settlement resources — all tailored to your immigration journey. Sign up here.
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