After December 10’s Huge CEC Draw, Will the CRS Drop in 2026?

Many are feeling a renewed sense of optimism after this large draw. Meanwhile, others are worried that it means there will be fewer, smaller draws given the relatively small quota expected for Canadian Experience Class-specific draws in 2026.  

Here’s what we know so far.  

The Express Entry Pool Grew Massively in 2025 

The first look into the pool in 2025 showed us that there were 227,305 candidates in the Express Entry pool. By 7 December 2025, that number had ballooned to 242,379. That’s an increase of over 15,000.  

However, it’s worth noting that the pool reached its peak for 2025 in June, when it hit a remarkable 257,557 candidates sitting in the Express Entry pool.  

The volume of people in the pool decreased after we saw more consistent larger draws. In the first half of the year, we only saw 41,845 invitations issued. From July onwards, we’ve seen closer to 60,000 – 59,754 as of December 10, 2025. So, that invitation cadence was enough to drop the overall candidate pool by 15,178.  

Competition at the 451-500 and 501-600 Levels is Fierce 

Many of us carefully watch the pool at the 501-600 range because that’s where the CRS cut-off for the Canadian Experience Class has been coming in throughout 2025. However, the pool is most congested at the 451-500 range.  

The 451-500 Range in 2025 

The 451-500 range has over 68,000 candidates, as of December 7, 2025, making it the range within the pool with the most candidates. Most of those candidates have a score between 451-480. Though, there’s a further 24,748 candidates with scores between 481-500.  

These candidates are just a few small changes away from reaching the 500+ range, such as improving language scores, or gaining an additional year of Canadian work experience.  

What this tells us is that we’re likely to continue seeing a steady stream of candidates entering the 501+ range in 2026.  

The 501-600 Range in 2025 

There were 24,001 candidates in the 501-600 range in mid-January 2025. By December 7, 2025, that number had increased to 27,096.  

We can assume that the total number of candidates in the pool at the 501-600 range on December 11, 2025 is sitting at around 21,200-22,000, depending on how many people entered the pool at this range. Note that this is an estimate based on past trends and it could be inaccurate.   

I based it especially on the rare two-day glimpse into the pool we received on November 23 and November 24. IRCC typically only provides weekly insights into the pool at the current time (it used to be every draw). However, the two-day insights we received showed that 138 candidates entered the pool at the 501-600 range between November 23 and 24. That tracks with what we’ve seen historically, with general calculations throughout the year showing around 110 to 220 people entering the pool at the 501+ range each day.  

We also know that there are around 21,200-22,000 candidates in the Express Entry pool with a score of 501-520 – thanks to the draw on December 10, 2025. Many of these candidates will gain additional points throughout 2026, thanks to improved language scores, more Canadian work experience, and even foreign work experience or French language proficiency.  

So, Will The CEC Score Drop Below 520 in 2026? 

Unfortunately, this comes with an unsatisfying answer – we don’t know. It will depend on how often Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conduct draws for CEC, and how large those draws are. Whether CEC-category hybrid draws become more commonplace may also impact the scores, though it’s possible these draws may end up favouring workers with slightly lower scores.  

If we see another round inviting 6,000 – yes it’s likely. However, we’d expect to see a decrease to 515 or so following another large draw, assuming a relatively even CRS distribution. 

If IRCC only holds relatively small draws, inviting just 500-1,000 candidates in each round, then it’s possible the CRS won’t drop further and it may even increase throughout 2026.  

So, if no-one knows, what’s the takeaway here?  

Your takeaway from this is that you should continue to work on what you can control. Focus on things like retaking language tests to max out your points for language proficiency, reaching out to employers from previous countries to be able to prove foreign work experience (if you have it), or learning French.  

We saw an online account today discussing that they had given up hope that scores would drop in 2025. They’re sitting at around 518, but could have scored 521 if they’d retaken their language test to max it out. They would have been invited in the December 10, 2025 draw had they focused on what they could control.  

These small changes in your CRS may seem insignificant, but it very well could be the difference between getting an invitation to apply in 2026 and missing out.  

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