Canada’s 2025 Election Results: A Newcomer’s Guide

What’s the impact of a minority government? How did Donald Trump influence the results? And what does this mean for government policy moving forward? This is the newcomer’s guide to understanding the results of the 2025 Canadian election.

A Primer: What You Need to Know

This election was destined to happen as soon as former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he would be stepping down in early January 2025. Trudeau had been Prime Minister since 2015—nearly 10 years. He was the leader of the Liberal Party, generally considered Canada’s centrist or centre-left political party.

In recent years, Canadians had grown tired and frustrated with Trudeau, with many blaming his Liberal Government for failing to adequately address housing affordability and cost-of-living issues. By December 2024, Trudeau had a record-low approval rating of only 22%.

Just before Trudeau announced he was stepping down, the Liberal Party was polling at only 20%. Meanwhile, the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was polling at nearly 45%—ahead by nearly 25 points and projected to win a massive majority government in the next election. Poilievre has a fiery political style—known for verbally sparring with rival politicians and journalists. His policy platform largely centred on addressing affordability issues: strengthening the economy, building homes, and cracking down on crime.

After Trudeau announced he was stepping down, the Liberal Party held a leadership campaign to select a new leader. Mark Carney won that campaign, replacing Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party. Mark Carney was sworn in as Prime Minister on March 14, 2025. One week later, Carney asked the Governor General to call an election, which was scheduled for April 28.

Carney is the former Governor of the Bank of Canada, leading the institution through the 2008 financial crisis. He was also Governor of the Bank of England, leading that institution through the precarious Brexit period. Although Carney lacks political experience, his economic expertise appeals to many voters.

The Election Campaign: Trump vs. Affordability

Prior to 2025, affordability was seen as the primary issue driving the Canadian electorate. Inflation had increased the cost of living, and a lack of affordable housing made homeownership unattainable by many, especially younger voters. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre had spent years as the leader of the official opposition, denouncing Trudeau’s leadership and advocating policies to address those issues. Prior to Trudeau’s resignation, every poll suggested that Poilievre was on track to win in a landslide.

Enter: Donald Trump.

U.S. President Donald Trump became one of the central issues of the Canadian election. After beginning his second term in January, Trump repeatedly threatened to annex Canada, turning the country into “the 51st state.” This notion was deeply unpopular among Canadians. In March 2025, Trump exacerbated his unpopularity among Canadians when he announced he would be imposing a series of tariffs on Canadian imports to the United States. Some of these tariffs have since come into effect—including on steel, aluminum, and automobiles.

With Donald Trump’s threats to Canada, suddenly many Canadians had a new ballot box issue: electing a leader who could respond to Trump’s economic and political threats. Mark Carney’s economic experience gave him a strong advantage over Pierre Poilievre in this arena. The Liberal Party jumped in the polls—from 20% in December to 44% in April. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives lost ground, slipping from a projected 44% of the vote to approximately 40%.

The Headline: Mark Carney & the Liberal Party Won

In the end, Mark Carney maintained enough appeal to win the election. His Liberal Party won 169 seats, forming a minority government. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party won 144 seats. The popular vote was close. The Liberals received 43.7% of the overall vote with the Conservatives receiving 41.3%.

The popular vote was relatively close, indicating the while Carney may have won the election, the issues of housing affordability and cost-of-living remain top of mind for many Canadians. If Carney is unable to address housing affordability and cost-of-living, the Canadian electorate may vote differently in the next election, choosing a new party with a platform to better address these present-day challenges.

What is a Minority Government?

Canada is a parliamentary democracy. In an election, Canadians vote to elect a member of parliament (MP) to represent their electoral district in the House of Commons. Each MP is associated with a political party (except in a handful of cases where candidates run as independents). The party with the most MPs is deemed to win the election.

There are currently 343 MPs in the House of Commons. If a party wins 172 or more seats—50% or higher—their government is known as a “majority government.” If the winning party has fewer than 172 seats, then their government is known as a “minority government.”

Most government legislation must pass through the of House of Commons with the support of at least 50% of MPs. This includes proposed laws, changes to tax policy, and government spending. In a minority government, the party in power must seek the support of other parties’ MPs to pass their legislation.

Minority governments are less stable than majority governments. In a minority government, an election could be called at any time if the party in power receives a vote of no confidence.

Prime Minister Mark Carney will have to navigate the complexities of a minority government to accomplish his agenda without triggering an election. Typically, this means either creating a formal partnership with another party (like the supply-and-confidence agreement the Liberals held with the NDP from 2021-2024), or passing legislation on a piecemeal bases, working with whichever party is most likely to support a given piece of legislation.

What is the outlook for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party?

The election results for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party were both positive and negative.

Poilievre lost the election, dramatically losing the 25-point lead he held in the polls in December. He also lost his own seat—he had been an MP in an Ottawa riding for more than 20 years. However, Poilievre led the Conservative Party to win 41.3% of the popular vote in Canada. This is the highest percentage of the vote the Conservatives have won in decades.

With these contrasting results, Poilievre’s future remains uncertain. He may stay on as party leader, hoping to claim victory in the next election. However, it’s possible that others in the Conservative Party may try to oust Poilievre, advocating for a new leader.

What about Canada’s other political parties?

Canada has many political parties. However, the 2025 election was dominated by the Liberals and Conservatives. Canada’s other popular political parties include:

• The New Democratic Party: Further left-wing than the Liberal Party, the NDP ebbs and flows in popularity. In 2011, the party won 103 seats becoming the official opposition. In recent years, its support has plummeted, with the party winning just 7 seats in the 2025 election. Party leader, Jagmeet Singh, stepped down immediately following the election results.
• The Bloc Québécois: This party only exists in the province of Quebec. It’s a party devoted to Quebec’s interests. Since its founding in 1991, the party has always won seats in Quebec, representing the province in federal politics. In 2025, Bloc support slipped, dropping from 32 seats to 22 seats.
• The Green Party: Advocating for environmental policies addressing climate change, the Green Party only ever wins a handful of seats. 2025 was a particularly disappointing result for the Greens, with only a single Green Party MP winning a seat.

One common trend in the 2025 is a diminishment of support for the above-mentioned parties. Their voters flocked instead to the Liberals and Conservatives. This is how the Conservative Party managed to win its highest percentage of the popular vote in decades while still losing the overall election.

When will the next Canadian election take place?

In Canada, a government can serve a maximum of four years before conducting a new election. However, during minority governments, elections are often called early when the party in power receives a vote of non-confidence in the House of Commons.

It’s hard to predict exactly when this will happen. It could take place in 2026 (or even earlier) if Mark Carney is unable to maintain the support of the other parties in passing his legislative agenda. However, the government could also endure for two or three years before an election is triggered.

Another possibility is that Mark Carney could choose to trigger an election himself. This often happens when a Prime Minister feels confident in their popularity and their capacity to win an election.

What does this mean for Canadian immigration?

With Mark Carney and the Liberal Government winning the election, the Liberals will set policy for Canadian immigration, at least while Carney remains in power. In his election platform, Carney indicated that he plans to continue to scale back admissions of temporary residents (international students & workers) to less than 5% of the total population. He also promised to cap permanent resident admissions to less than 1% of the Canadian population per year (that’s about 400,000).

For full details on Carney’s election platform check out our article on the subject.

A platform is not a policy. It’s possible that Prime Minister Carney’s actual immigration policies will differ from those stated in the party platform. Our team will be monitoring the Prime Minister’s actions and will keep our community updated with any relevant news.