How Will The 2025 Canadian Election Change Immigration in Canada?

A quick note, we are party-neutral when it comes to politics.  

With that out the way: Here’s what we know so far, and what it could mean for newcomers. 

Key Takeaways 

• Temporary resident numbers will likely stay scaled back regardless of which party wins. 

• Mark Carney’s plan would limit permanent resident admissions to under 1% of Canada’s population annually. French language skills Carney’s proposal would prioritize French-speaking candidates at higher-than-existing rates. 

• Conservatives are focusing on enforcement, including visa overstays, criminal background checks, and cracking down on visitor visa abuse. 

Mark Carney’s Published Immigration Plan 

Mark Carney’s proposed immigration policy emphasizes sustainability and long-term planning. His key proposals include: 

• Cap temporary residents (international students and temporary workers) at less than 5% of the total population by 2027 (down from a recent high of 7.3%). 

• Limit permanent resident admissions to under 1% of Canada’s population annually after 2027. 

• Revitalize the Global Skills Strategy, targeting high-growth sectors and US-based skilled workers. 

• Improve foreign credential recognition, particularly in high-demand fields like healthcare and the skilled trades. 

• Update/overhaul digital tools to reduce backlogs and processing times. 

• Support refugees and protect system integrity, with better legal aid and faster processing for asylum seekers. 

• Boost Francophone immigration to 12%, aiming for 12% of newcomers outside Quebec to be French-speaking by 2029. 

• Strengthen border enforcement and anti-fraud measures to maintain system trust and efficiency. 

You can see the Liberal planning document here. 

Immigration Under Mark Carney vs The Immigration Levels Plan for 2025–2027 

Mark Carney’s plan actually wouldn’t significantly deviate from the system that’s currently in effect, but it would bring a bit more order to the levels planning. It ties immigration to Canada’s overall population, which would help to prevent the immigration system from getting ‘overheated’ like we saw in 2024.  

Population Context 

Here’s what that could look like based on the population data from Statistics Canada data from January 1, 2025:  

• Total population: 41,528,680 

• Projected population in 2027: 42,260,000 

• 1% of the population: ~422,600 (permanent resident admission target under Carney’s plan) 

• 5% of the population: ~2,100,000 (temporary resident target under Carney’s plan) 

Bear in mind that the temporary resident target would include all international students, temporary foreign workers, and other temporary residents at any time. It would not mean that more than 2 million temporary residents would be admitted each year. We would estimate the numbers would be closer to around 600,000 annually to keep the temporary resident population in the target range.  

Strategies for Permanent Residence Under a Liberal Government 

While the strategies going forward will vary depending on the political climate of the day as well as the party in control, here are some strategies and opportunities we see if Canada elects the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney:  

Learn French 

Both the current plan and Carney’s proposal aim to boost Francophone immigration. Targets are increasing year over year, and Carney wants 12% of all PRs outside Quebec to be French-speaking by 2029. French skills could be your golden ticket, especially outside Quebec. 

Two-Step Immigration 

Based on the temporary immigration level targets, it seems likely that the two-step immigration (from temporary resident to permanent resident) will offer opportunities for immigrants. While there’s some short-term pain in the Express Entry system as Canada works to reduce its temporary resident levels, this will likely stabilize by 2027.  

Watch for Credential Recognition Reforms 

Carney’s platform puts emphasis on speeding up foreign credential recognition, particularly in healthcare and skilled trades. These sectors are also highlighted in the 2025 Express Entry draws. If you’re trained in one of these fields, monitor upcoming changes that could smooth your path to PR.

The Conservative Party’s Immigration Plan 

If elected, a Conservative government would: 

• Tie immigration levels directly to housing availability, job growth, and healthcare capacity. 

• Reject the Century Initiative, which proposes tripling Canada’s population over the course of one lifetime. 

• Require union LMIA pre-checks, giving organized labour more oversight in the TFW process. 

• Mandate criminal background checks for international students. 

• Implement visa departure tracking and last-in, first-out refugee processing. 

• Expand removals for visitors who commit crimes. 

You might notice the plans are a little more specific than the Liberal costed plan. The Conservative’s published plan does not include as much detail when it comes to specific numbers.  

You can view the Conservative platform document here. 

Strategies For Immigrating Under a Conservative Government 

This is a little trickier to flesh out since we don’t have any published numbers to work with, but these strategies are likely under a Conservative government:  

1. Compliance and accuracy in applications will be more important than ever. We’ve had a glimpse into tougher processing in the past six months, with visa officers getting tougher on applications since mid-2024. But it’s likely that these very high standards for processing would remain or even escalate under a Conservative government.
2. Monitor for changes to criminal record and background check requirements and be careful to avoid even minor infractions.  
3. You’ll need to keep a better eye on your status too, since the Conservative Party plans to introduce departure tracking and speed up removals.