Canada hits a pothole on the road to economic recovery – Jobs Report

Canada’s jobs recovery kicked into high gear in March, adding more than 303,000 net new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 7.5 percent, the lowest level since February, 2020.

However, a shaky start to spring — Ontario has reinstituted stay-at-home orders across much of the province, Quebec’s largest cities reverted to an 8 p.m. curfew, and B.C. suddenly brought in “circuit-breaker” restrictions — means that the trajectory of Canada’s recovery may not be always on the up-and-up.

The latest Labour Force Survey (LFS) from StatsCan reflects market conditions in mid-March, after many restrictions had been lifted in Ontario and other provinces, but before the aforementioned new restrictions on economic and social activity were reintroduced as the vaccine-versus-variant race continues. Vaccination against COVID-19 ramped up (to borrow a well-worn phrase for our times) through March and will gather pace through Q2, but the simultaneous spread of virus variants also threatens public health and, as a result, Canada’s economic recovery.

So, to what extent can, or should, the latest LFS be read as a contemporary snapshot of the state of Canada’s economy?

Optimists may point to back-to-back months of job gains, with the 300k-plus March gains following nearly 260,000 in February. They may also point to a trend towards more full-time work, with 175,000 (58 percent) of March’s gains in full-time work, following 88,000 net new full-time positions in February (34 percent of that month’s total).

They may also point to the imminent spring federal budget, which is expected to contain ambitious measures to stimulate the economy over the coming months and years.

“The main message is clearly the economy can recover quickly and jobs can recover quickly when things do open up again,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, speaking with Bloomberg.

“When things do open up again”

These six words of Mr. Porter’s comments are on the minds of everyone with an interest in Canada’s economy (usually in the form of a question with the second and third words switched around). In particular, recent newcomers in Canada are looking at short-term job opportunities and longer-term career potential in Canada, as are prospective newcomers abroad, many of whom continue to await the green light to begin actually living and working in Canada having already been approved to do so.

The big “when” is clearly draining on workers and other stakeholders who believed, perhaps naively, that when things opened up again, as they did to some extent in March, things would not then revert back to more restrictive states of lockdown.

So, what about March then?

The latest LFS paints a pretty picture of Canada’s economic recovery, and with good reason.

More workers in Canada are working, and an increasing share of those workers are engaged in more secure forms of work. Total hours worked rose by two points in March, driven by gains in several industries, including educational services, retail trade, and construction. Employment also increased in accommodation and food services, health care and social assistance, education, and information, culture and recreation.

Two-thirds (201,000) of March’s gains were in the private sector, revealing some confidence among business owners that investing in labour is the right next step for their business. This added to private sector gains of 226,000 in February and brought the number of private sector employees to within 2.4% (-300,000) of its February 2020 level, right before the pandemic got underway.

Employment increased in seven provinces, including the most populated provinces: Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Alberta. Newfoundland, PEI, and Manitoba also posted increases.

Employment was unchanged in Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan.

Of Canada’s largest three cities, Toronto posted the most impressive fall in unemployment, from 10.4 percent in February to 8.6 percent in March. Vancouver’s unemployment rate also ticked down from 7.7 percent to 7.5 percent, in line with the national average. Montreal’s unemployment rate moved slightly in the other direction, from 7.4 percent to 7.9 percent.

Looking ahead: restrictions may stagger recovery

Speaking with Global News, Canada’s Employment Minister Carla Qualtrough said: “I don’t think next month’s job numbers will be as hopeful, because they will reflect the lockdowns that are happening now . . . the numbers will dip in the negative again because of this third wave and lockdowns.”

However, Qualtrough added that job numbers are “rebounding very quickly” after lockdowns.

In a rare move, StatsCan’s LSF also acknowledged that next month’s report, which will look at the month of April in retrospect, may look quite different to the March edition, thanks to the labour market impact of economic restrictions.

In plain English, StatsCan expects people to be laid off. The safe betting on which industries and workers are likely to be affected include retail trade and accommodation and food services, particularly in part-time positions.

However, the medium-term view is that if the vaccines can steal a march on the variants, and if as a result current economic restrictions can be lifted in time for summer, then those employers can welcome back even more workers than were hired in February and March.

If that happens, this Montreal-based writer will be among the first to keep those businesses going, sipping a beer on a terrasse some time after 8 p.m.

Canada’s economy blew past expectations in February, adding more than a quarter million new jobs as the country edges back towards pre-pandemic employment levels.

The 259,000 new jobs in February — roughly equivalent to the population of Saskatoon, SK or Windsor, ON — nearly wiped out the 266,000 jobs lost over the previous two months, as various pandemic-related lockdowns and restrictions from December and January lifted across much of the country.

The national unemployment rate has now fallen 1.2 percentage points to 8.2%, the lowest rate since March 2020, a month that will long in the collective consciousness as the month when everything changed.

Canada still has some way to go to get back to those early 2020 levels. There are still around 600,000 fewer people working in Canada compared to a year ago, plus an additional 406,000 more people working less than half of their usual hours. That’s around a million people — roughly equivalent to the population of Ottawa, Canada’s capital — who either remain out of work or who are still working fewer hours than before the pandemic. Moreover, unemployment rates below 6%, a consistent feature of the economy in the couple of years before the pandemic, remain a distant goal.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last week acknowledged that “there are still far too many people for whom things continue to be really tough,” adding: “if that’s you, know that you’re not alone in this crisis. We’re here to help get through it and get back on your feet.” The help the PM refers to includes a range of income support programs that have existed in some form for a year now.

Source: StatsCan, CBC

A surge in Canadian jobs

Canada’s economic resilience to the second wave of the pandemic comes as the country exits its notoriously frosty winter on an upward trajectory with its COVID-19 vaccination efforts.

As more Canadians receive one of the approved vaccines and the number of cases, hospitalisations, and deaths decrease, governments at provincial and municipal levels have lifted many economic restrictions that had been in place since around November of last year. This allowed for the re-opening of many so-called non-essential businesses, cultural and recreational facilities, and some in-person dining. However, capacity limits and other public health requirements, which varied across jurisdictions, remain in place.

It hasn’t all been plain sailing. While restrictions were eased to varying degrees in parts of Quebec, Alberta, and Ontario, Newfoundland re-introduced a lockdown in mid-February, requiring the widespread closure of many businesses and services.

The bulk of newly-added jobs in Canada last month were in part-time work (+171,000), though 88,000 full-timers were also added to payrolls nationwide. Canada’s private sector is gaining confidence and offering more positions; February’s gains included an increase of 226,000 jobs (+1.9%) among private-sector employees, offsetting a similarly sized decline in January, as employment in the retail trade, and accommodation and food services industries recovered in response to the easing of public health restrictions in many jurisdictions.

It also looks like some workers who had been looking for work for a long time are back at work. The number of long-term unemployed — people who had been looking for work or been on temporary layoff for 27 weeks or more — fell by 49,000 (-9.7%) in February from a record high of 512,000 in January.

However, February employment increases were concentrated in jobs paying $17.50 per hour or less, reflecting monthly growth in industries with a high proportion of low-paying jobs.

The number of people working in retail trade increased by 122,000 (+6.1%) in February as restrictions on non-essential stores were lifted in many regions.

Employment in the accommodation and food services industry rose by 65,000 (+7.8%), driven primarily by Ontario and Alberta.

Employment gains in February were concentrated in Quebec (+113,000; +2.7%) and Ontario (+100,000; +1.4%), reflecting a rebound in industries — particularly retail trade and accommodation and food services — where public health measures were strengthened in December and then eased in February.

Employment also increased in British Columbia, Alberta and Manitoba.

After falling steadily from September 2020 to January 2021, the number of people working in the information, culture, and recreation industry was little changed in February.

Urban unemployment is down

Canada’s three largest cities are all enjoying an economic rebound following a tough few months.

Toronto’s unemployment rate now stands at 10.4% (down from 11.8% in January); Montreal is posting an impressive unemployment rate of 7.4% (down from 9.5% in January); Vancouver’s unemployment rate is currently 7.7% (down from 8.9% in January).

Governments, employers, and workers alike are hopeful that more restrictions can be eased over the coming weeks in months, bringing further drops in unemployment.

Recent and more established immigrants, as well as those hoping to move to Canada in 2021 or 2022, have real hope that they can ride the wave of economic growth in Canada when that growth gains momentum. In fact, immigrants are among the more active stimulants of that growth, with studies showing that immigrants start businesses that employ other workers at a higher rate than their Canadian-born counterparts. Immigrants to Canada don’t take jobs from Canadians — they create jobs for Canadians.

Canada’s economy is set to rebound in 2021, but not before a few more bumps in the road over the coming months. A lot depends on the delivery and administration of COVID-19 vaccinations, with public health officials stating that they expect a majority of the Canadian population to be vaccinated by September.

What does this mean for jobs in Canada? How might newcomers’ economic prospects be affected? And when we look back a year from now, how might 2021 be described? This could be the toughest year in living memory to make predictions about the economy and jobs in Canada — but some economists are on the record with bullish predictions for Canada’s economy post-COVID.

2021 is expected to be better than 2020 — not a high bar, admittedly — but this year is expected to see strong growth in the Canadian economy and jobs.“Fundamentally, there wasn’t anything wrong with the economy before this [pandemic] all began,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, one of Canada’s major banking institutions. “And because of the tremendous fiscal support, I do think [the economy is] relatively well-coiled to come back when health conditions do allow.”

He did sound a note of caution, however: “The economy is going to be slogging uphill in the next couple of months. It’s going to be a tough grind through the winter.”

Holding pattern for the winter

Canada’s latest jobs figures, released by StatsCan on January 8, show that unemployment remains much the same as it was on entering the winter season back in November. Unemployment in Canada now sits at 8.6% (editor’s note: StatsCan later revised this upward to 8.8%) , up marginally from the previous report (8.5%). December saw the re-introduction of economic restrictions across Canada, affecting retail, dining and food services, and even office environments in many provinces and regions. Further restrictions implemented later in December are likely to be reflected in January’s jobs figures, to be released next month.

All this led to a seven-month streak of job gains in Canada’s labour market coming to an end in the final month of 2020. Canada lost 63,000 jobs in December, the first time the job market has contracted since March and April, when the first lockdown was just getting underway. By May, more than 3 million jobs had been lost and unemployment stood at 13.7%.

And, despite millions of new jobs and plenty of hiring from May to November, there are still 636,000 fewer people with a job in Canada than there were in February, before the pandemic struck. 2020 will now officially go down as the worst year for Canadian jobs since 1982.

Notwithstanding these record-setting, era-defining numbers, Economist Brendon Bernard from job search site Indeed provided a much-needed silver lining.

“Things could’ve been worse,” he said this week. “December’s drop was nowhere near the scale of the declines we saw last spring, and some areas of the economy, like manufacturing and professional services, still achieved solid gains.

“Nonetheless, it’s clear once again that the job market can’t recover amid a raging pandemic.”

So, when will the Covid-19 pandemic stop raging in Canada?

Spring flowers

Canada’s vaccination program, which got underway in mid-December, has got off to a steady, if underwhelming, start. However, the country has placed orders for multiple vaccine candidates, two of which have already been approved by Canadian health authorities; those orders, if approved and delivered, would be enough to vaccinate the population more than five times over. Canada has essentially bet on many horses in the race, providing real hope — even expectation — that economic, social, and cultural life in Canada will be relatively normal by the year’s end, if not sooner.

As more people are vaccinated over the coming months and as Canada’s notoriously harsh winter turns to spring, making it easier for people to enjoy outdoors, workers and businesses are eyeing up spring as a significant milestone in the lifecycle of the pandemic.

To bridge Canadian workers and businesses to that point and beyond, the emergency wage subsidy program, which covers up to 75% of businesses’ payroll, has already been extended to early summer of 2021, effectively making the federal government the largest HR department in the country. Other new programs help laid off workers cover essential expenses until they find new employment. If by the time the wage subsidy program winds down in June there is some effective mass vaccination completed and some return to a form of normalcy, at least as far as retail, transportation, and work is concerned, this could be the point at which the Canadian economy charges ahead, bringing forth more jobs and wage growth.

However, the usual caveats apply: we don’t know for certain just how well the vaccination program will go, plus a roaring Canadian economy by the second half of 2021 will need all the major stakeholders — that’s governments at all levels, the public and private sectors, and, of course, workers themselves — all pulling in a similar direction in a ‘Team Canada’ effort reminiscent of post-WW2 economic recovery. Moreover, and as 2020 showed, economic predictions in January don’t always pan out neatly.

Mark your calendar for September

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is on record as marking September as a sort of tipping point — the moment when a majority of Canada’s population can expect to have received a vaccine, thereby denying the virus new hosts, in turn relieving pressure on the healthcare system and allowing freer economic and social activity.

How do immigrants to Canada fit into all this?

Thousands of would-be immigrants to Canada have had to pause their moving plans over recent months, despite having already been approved for permanent residence in Canada. Travel restrictions continue to deny these approved immigrants-to-be the right to physically land in Canada and begin lives and careers here.

Given the vaccine rollout and solid predictions for how that will go, COPR (Confirmation of Permanent Residence) holders waiting to land in Canada should expect, but not presume, that they will be allowed to finally land at some point this year, hopefully by the third quarter.

When they do land, they can expect (though again, not presume) that they’ll be entering an economy on the up, with hiring in full flow, employers competing for talent, and Canadians spending some of the considerable amount of savings they’ve amassed while being locked in their homes with little to spend it on.

Economically, late 2021 and 2022 might be a great time to move to Canada.

Canada also plays host to millions of people who already made the move over the months, years, and decades before the pandemic struck. Many immigrants to Canada suffered in 2020 as they either lost their jobs or saw their hours or wages reduced. But, many other immigrants continue to remain gainfully employed.

The most recent StatsCan jobs study uses a three-month rolling average for the employment rate among immigrants who landed within the past five years, which helps smooth out monthly variations. The rate was little changed from the same three-month period a year earlier (65.4%, not seasonally adjusted) as their population and employment levels fell at a similar pace. In contrast, the three-month moving average employment rate declined for immigrants who landed over five years ago (-2.3 percentage points to 57.8%) and for those born in Canada (-2.9 percentage points to 59.6%).

The relative stability of the employment rate among very recent immigrants masks the fact that, like youth as a whole, younger members of this group continue to face challenging labour market conditions

Canada’s unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 8.5% in November, continuing the steady fall from the record high 13.7% in May, during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Employment in Canada continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than the summer months. Overall employment in Canada rose by 62,000 (+0.3%) in November, following an increase of 84,000 (+0.5%) in October. From May to September, employment grew by an average of 2.7% per month.

Canada’s economic recovery

The national unemployment rate back in February was 5.6%, just prior to the COVID-19 economic shutdown.

By April, the initial widespread COVID-19 economic shutdown had directly affected 5.5 million workers in Canada, including 3.0 million who had lost employment and 2.5 million who remained employed but had experienced COVID-related absences from work. By November, the equivalent figure was 1 million, including a 574,000 (-3.0%) drop in employment since February and a 448,000 (+55.5%) increase since February in workers who were employed but worked less than half their usual hours.

Recent employment gains have been boosted by an increase of 32,000  in the number of public sector employees in November. Hospitals and schools are driving growth in public sector employment, which now exceeds its pre-COVID February level by 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the number of private sector employees was little changed in November compared to recent months, but was down by 411,000 (or -3.3%) compared with 12 months earlier. This decline was largest in accommodation and food services, while employment in professional, scientific and technical services increased. Accommodation and food services are among a group of industries that have been particularly hard-hit by restrictions on economic activity in 2020.

Many of these businesses continue to be kept afloat thanks in part to the Government of Canada’s Emergency Wage Subsidy program, which has now been extended to June 2021, as well as bridging loans and, of course, the innumerable efforts of entrepreneurs and small businesses owners across the country.

Some industries are on the up, others struggle

StatsCan, the agency that submits the data upon which this report is based, has revealed that many industries are enjoying steady growth in employment levels. Among them are:

• Retail trade (up 32,000 jobs in November)
• Construction (+26,000, mostly in Ontario)
• Transportation and warehousing (+20,000, mostly in Ontario and BC)
• Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing (+15,000, now surpassing pre-COVID February levels)
• Natural resources (+10,000, mostly in Alberta and BC)

However, some industries — including information, culture and recreation, as well as accommodation and food services — continue to struggle in the face of a second wave of the spread of COVID-19 and associated economic restrictions.

How are immigrants doing in Canada’s economy?

Though Canada’s borders remain largely closed to the arrival of new immigrants for now, many of those who entered in the years before the pandemic remain employed.

In fact, StatsCan reports that of all the demographic groups tracked, the employment rate among very recent immigrants (those who arrived within the past five years) remains closest to February levels as newcomers continue to provide for themselves and their families in their new home.

For more information on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on immigrant employment, see Transitions into and out of employment by immigrants during the COVID-19 lockdown and recovery.

Which Canadian provinces and cities have job growth?

Employment increased in six provinces in November: Ontario, British Columbia, and in all four Atlantic provinces. Manitoba experienced its first employment loss since April, while the number of people with a job or business held steady in Quebec, Saskatchewan and Alberta.

Employment growth in Toronto was at a standstill in November after increasing for five consecutive months, though the Ontario unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 9.1%, which remains above the national average.

Employment in Quebec was little changed for the second consecutive month. In Montreal, Canada’s second-largest city, employment was flat for the second consecutive month following average monthly growth of 3.8% from May to September. The Quebec unemployment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to 7.2%, below the national average, as fewer people were on temporary layoff.

Employment grew (+1.2%) in Vancouver, albeit at a slower pace than in the previous two months. BC as a whole boasts an unemployment rate of 7.1%.

Times are tougher in the Prairie provinces. Manitoba has had to introduce new COVID-related restrictions, contributing to a decrease of 18,000 jobs, mostly part-time. In both Saskatchewan and Alberta, there was little employment change in November.

Canada has clawed back more than three quarters of the jobs that were lost during the onset of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this year, when around three million workers in Canada lost their jobs and others saw their hours or pay reduced.

To put that in context, Canada’s jobs recovery (also known as claw-back) ratio of 79% is far higher than the 51% witnessed so far in the United States. Adjusted per capita, for every two jobs recovered in the US, Canada has recovered more than three.

The 84,000 net jobs added in Canada in October was, as expected, significantly lower than previous months since the spring. September was +378,000; August, +246,000; July, +419,000; June, +952,000; and May, 289,600.

But, job increases were found across several industries and most of the gains were in full-time work (+69,000), with women aged 25-54 benefiting the most to bring their unemployment rate to 6.6%, far below the national unemployment rate of 8.9% and the lowest among the major demographic groups tracked by Statistics Canada.

The slower growth in Canada’s jobs numbers for October reflect tighter public health measures in response to a spike in Covid-19 infections since the summer. Authorities in some provinces and cities placed new restrictions on businesses where the risk of transmission of the virus is thought to be greater, including restaurants, bars, gyms, and recreational facilities. These businesses’ inability to operate as normal, or at all, meant that some workers were laid off.

However, these restrictions are temporary in nature. Moreover, many businesses are being kept afloat owing to the extension of the Government of Canada’s Emergency Wage Subsidy program and bridging loans (plus, of course, the innumerable efforts of entrepreneurs and small businesses owners across the country).

Challenges and opportunities for 2021

The tantalising prospect of an effective, widely distributed Covid vaccination program has raised real hope of a return to some form of normality next year, and with it a bounce in consumer confidence and continued hiring. Many economic growth projections for 2021 assume some sort of effective vaccine in Canada and globally, allowing for international trade and travel to rebound and for businesses large and small to operate without onerous, pandemic-related restrictions. This week’s news of promising vaccine trials put those assumptions on a more solid footing.

Canadians and newcomers are dreaming of returning to their favourite lunch spot with colleagues and of taking warm weather vacations when Canada is blanketed in snow, all funded by pay rises as Canada’s economy gathers momentum through 2021 and people feel more secure in their jobs and careers.

But even in this best-case scenario, there are those for whom an end to the pandemic does not necessarily mean an end to economic peril: the long-term jobless. The share of workers in Canada considered “long-term unemployed” — meaning out of work and looking for work for 27 weeks or more — is now higher than after the financial crisis of 2008-09. Combined with a continuing (for now) pandemic, increasing automation, and the rise of the “gig” economy, long-term unemployment appears both deeper and stickier than before.

The latest Labour Force Survey — the main study we use to compile this jobs report — notes that long-term unemployment will become a key measure of the ability of Canadian workers to adapt to new labour market conditions by finding new work.

And, while most workers who were among the three million laid off in March and April have now found employment, others have joined the ranks of the long-term unemployed. This category increased by 79,000 (+36.2%) in September and a further 151,000 (+50.7%) in October, reflecting the flow into this category of those who lost jobs in March and April (i.e. at least 27 weeks ago) and have been unemployed since then. As of October, the long-term unemployed totalled 448,000, or one-quarter (24.6%) of all unemployed people.

So, while Canada’s economy displays resilience and opportunity, a sizeable minority of workers — some of whom are highly educated and previously relatively high earning — are finding it tricky to bounce back into gainful employment quickly.

The provincial and industry picture

Employment increased in five provinces in October — Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island — and held relatively steady in the rest.

One noteworthy trend is that recent employment gains are concentrated in the big cities, which are also the most popular immigrant destinations.

Toronto, for example, led the way for Ontario’s employment gains, while out west in BC, Vancouver, employment increased by 52,000 (+3.8%) and was within 4.3% of its pre-pandemic level.

And, while Alberta’s economy continues to stutter, employment gains in Calgary and Edmonton surpass gains in the province as a whole. October employment gains in Alberta were spread across several industries, including healthcare and social assistance, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale and retail trade.

For the first time since April, employment declined in the accommodation and food services industry last month (-48,000). Months of flat employment continued in a number of industries which have yet to recover to their pre-COVID levels, including construction, and transportation and warehousing.

Nationally, there are some industries that now showcase employment levels that exceed pre-pandemic levels: wholesale trade; professional, scientific and technical services; and educational services.

Further reading: Transitions into and out of employment by immigrants during the COVID-19 lockdown and recovery.

Canada added 378,000 new jobs last month, significantly more than expected by leading economists and more than the quarter million or so jobs added in August.

Most of the employment in September was in full-time work, which rose by 334,000 after months of faster gains in part-time employment.

Canada’s two most populated provinces, Ontario and Quebec, led the way in job gains. Only two provinces, New Brunswick and PEI, experienced a net decline in jobs.

Unemployment in Canada down again

Canada’s unemployment rate declined for the fourth consecutive month in September, falling 1.2 percentage points to 9%. The steady improvement since May, when national unemployment stood at 13.7% and some regions and cities showed a far higher rate of unemployment, comes as provinces and cities across Canada eased restrictions on economic activity and movement in response to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic.

However, job growth and sliding unemployment rates should not be taken as a given.

The potential effect of COVID-19 on Canada’s economy

There are clear signs that Canada’s economy has rebounded since May, when initial restrictions were being eased in many parts of the country. But, as the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases increase in nearly all parts of Canada — hats off to Nova Scotia for and much of Atlantic Canada for bucking this trend, for now at least — economists, public health officials, and politicians caution that it may not be plain sailing until a vaccine may be approved and distributed, hopefully, in 2021.

CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes, for example, says Canada’s labour market faces an unclear future because of the rise in COVID-19 case counts.

“The country is now faced with new virus cases clearly trending in the wrong direction, threatening to upend the labour market recovery,” he writes.

Statistics Canada, the government agency that compiles the Labour Force Survey upon which this Moving2Canada Jobs Report is based, provides an example of how and why increasing case counts and the world-renowned Canadian winter may affect the economy: ‘The accommodation and food services industry is likely to continue to face a number of challenges over the coming months. While outdoor dining is likely to become impractical during the winter months and as some COVID restrictions are re-introduced, a recent study indicated that Canadians plan to reduce spending at restaurants.’

Indeed, many cities and municipalities have placed further restrictions on dining out since the Labour Force Survey was conducted last month. In Montreal, a city world renowned for its array of restaurants and bars, new restrictions limit restaurants to take out and outdoor dining only, and this at a time when Montrealers are reaching for their hat, scarf, and gloves after months of sunshine and warm weather.

A continuation of the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy into 2021, announced recently by the federal government, may mitigate the worst adverse effects of a potential economic downturn as it may allow many businesses to keep staff on payroll even if consumer spending dips.

The provincial picture

For now at least, things are looking rather good in many parts of Canada.

Employment in Ontario increased by 168,000 in September (+2.4% month over month), largely in full-time work, and building on gains of 670,000 over the previous three months. The bulk of new jobs in Ontario last month were in accommodation and food services, manufacturing, and educational services. The unemployment rate fell 1.1 percentage points to 9.5%, the fourth consecutive monthly decline.

In Toronto, the largest city in Ontario — indeed, in Canada — employment increased by 114,000 (+3.4%), a faster pace of growth than the province overall.

Next door in Quebec, employment rose by 77,000 (+1.8%), adding to gains of 630,000 over the previous four months. Like in Ontario, educational services and accommodation and food services contributed the most to the gains in September. Quebec’s unemployment rate now stands at 7.4%, below the national average but higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 5.1%.

In Montreal, employment grew by 57,000 (+2.7%) in September, a faster growth rate than Quebec as a whole.

Out west, employment in British Columbia grew by 55,000 (+2.3%) in September, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, as the unemployment rate fell 2.3 percentage points to 8.4%.

In Vancouver, by far the largest city in BC, employment increased by 35,000 (+2.7%) and was 7.9% below its February level, a degree of recovery lower than the province as a whole.

Like most Canadian cities, Vancouver posted healthy job gains last month.

Employment in Alberta rose by 38,000 (+1.8%) in September, nearly all in full-time work, though the unemployment rate was little changed at 11.7%. Educational services, information, culture and recreation, and public administration contributed the most to the increase.

Employment in Manitoba, home to the city of Winnipeg, is up for the fifth consecutive month with 15,000 jobs added in September, and unemployment stands at 7%. Meanwhile in Saskatchewan, the unemployment rate has dipped to 6.8%.

In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia reported the largest employment gain in September, up 12,000 (+2.7%), continuing the upward trend that began five months earlier. The unemployment rate fell 2.4 percentage points to 7.9%.

New Brunswick’s unemployment rate rose to 10.4% as more people searched for work. Across the Confederation Bridge in Prince Edward Island, employment fell slightly following four successive monthly gains. PEI’s unemployment rate is 10.1%.

Newfoundland’s unemployment rate continues to exceed the national average, at 14.8%.

Immigrant employment in Canada

Though Canada’s borders remain largely closed to the arrival of new immigrants for now, many of those who entered in the years before the pandemic continue to do well in Canada’s economy.

Immigrants who landed in Canada more than five years ago are more likely than recent immigrants to be employed in industries where employment has been relatively less affected by COVID-19, including health care and social assistance; public administration; and finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing.

That said, the employment rate of recent immigrants is actually greater than the national average, as newcomers continue to provide for themselves and their families in their new home.

Nearly a quarter-million new jobs were added to the Canadian economy in August, building on job growth over recent months that has seen nearly two million jobs added since May.

As public health restrictions continue to ease across the country and businesses and workplaces reopen, more workers — immigrants included — are finding employment. Canada’s national unemployment rate has ticked down to 10.2%, down from 10.9% last month.

Moreover, more people are working more hours, thereby increasing their income.

A full-time recovery

Of the 246,000 new jobs added in August, most (206,000) were in full-time work, showing increasing confidence among employers.

Full-time employment now stands at 93.9% of pre-pandemic levels, compared with 96.1% for part-time work. In the months prior to the COVID-19 economic shutdown full-time employment had reached record highs, while growth in part-time work was relatively flat.

The latest figures bring the four-month total of new jobs to around 1.9 million since May. But because 3 million jobs were lost in March and April, Canada still has 1.1 million fewer paid workers than it did in February, before COVID-19 hit.

The pace of job recovery is also leveling off. Employment rose by 246,000 (+1.4%) in August, compared with 419,000 (+2.4%) in July. The months of May and June combined added 1.2 million new jobs.

Anticipating these jobs numbers, Rishi Sondhi, economist at TD, stated last week: “This reflects a pause, or plateau, in re-opening plans after emergency measure rollbacks bolstered the performance in the early stage of the recovery. While third quarter growth will almost assuredly be extremely strong, it can’t grow that way forever and momentum is predictably slowing.”

Immigrant employment up

More immigrants are finding jobs in Canada. Statistics Canada reports that the employment rate for very recent immigrants (those who landed less than five years ago) is now close to pre-pandemic levels (-1.5 percentage points), with immigrants who landed more than five years ago not far behind (-3.2 percentage points).

Newcomers and long-settled immigrants alike are enjoying a steady recovery within the Canadian labour market, with their employment rates now up for a fourth consecutive month.

Working from home somewhere other than home

StatsCan, the government agency that gathers these numbers, has now begun collecting data on the number of workers working from home. Their findings reveal that the “new normal” may not mean commuting 10 feet from bed to desk and the work day consisting of Zoom meeting after Zoom meeting (though that remains the default for many, including this writer).

In fact, the number of Canadians working from home has declined (in absolute and relative terms) for the fourth consecutive month. StatsCan reports that in April, at the height of the COVID-19 economic shutdown, 3.4 million Canadians who worked their usual hours had adjusted to public health restrictions by beginning to work from home. This number has fallen each month since May, when the gradual easing of public health restrictions began, and reached 2.5 million in August.

Among Canadians who worked their usual hours in August, the total number working from home fell by nearly 300,000 compared with July, while the number working at locations other than home increased by almost 400,000.

So, a future of absolutely everyone working remotely and from home is not quite yet upon us.

Where the jobs are

Every Canadian province added jobs in August, except Alberta and New Brunswick.

The charge was led by Ontario, where 142,000 new jobs were added in August, nearly all in full-time work, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points to 10.6%. Public health restrictions in some cities in Southern Ontario, including Toronto, had eased by mid-August, allowing more business to open and rehire. In Toronto, still the most popular immigrant destination in Canada, employment increased by 121,000 (+3.8%), nearly double the growth rate of the province, and reached 93.3% of its pre-pandemic level.

121,000 new jobs in Toronto last month.

In neighbouring Quebec, employment increased by 54,000 (+1.3%) in August, building on gains of 576,000 over the previous three months and bringing employment to within 95.7% of its February level. August employment growth was entirely in full-time work and the unemployment rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 8.7%, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Employment in Montreal grew by 38,000 (+1.8%) in August and reached 96.0% of its pre-pandemic level.

British Columbia reported the largest jobs increase out west, up 15,000 (+0.6%). Employment reached 94.1% of its February level and the unemployment rate fell 0.4 percentage points to 10.7%. Vancouver’s unemployment rate stands at 12.4%, above both the provincial and national averages.

While employment in Alberta was little changed, the unemployment rate declined by a full percentage point to 11.8%. StatsCan attributes this to fewer people looking for work in Alberta.

In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia had the largest employment gain in August, up 7,200 (+1.6%), but mostly in part-time work. The unemployment rate was little changed at 10.3%, as more Nova Scotians participated in the labour market.

Nova Scotia, as well as Atlantic Canada more broadly, has coped remarkably well during the pandemic. Provincial governments have banded together to allow travel within the Atlantic region, but continue to restrict non-essential movement into the region. Extremely low levels of Covid-19 infection across the region have aided economic recovery.

After notable increases in May and June, employment in New Brunswick held steady for the second consecutive month. The unemployment rates in PEI and Newfoundland are down again, to 10.7% and 13.1%, respectively.

Canada’s economy added 418,500 new jobs in July, the third consecutive month of job gains as the Canadian economy recovers from the initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic.

The national unemployment rate — now at 10.9%, down from 12.3% last month — is also moving in the right direction.

These promising economic signs are in large part thanks to Canada’s success in slowing the spread of the virus in combination with substantial public spending to stimulate economic activity. The responsible actions of individuals, communities, workers, and employers, who continue to maintain physical distancing requirements and restrictions on large gatherings, has also contributed to the economic upswing, allowing more people to return to work.

It should be noted, however, that most employment gains in July were in part-time work, which increased by 345,000 (+11.3%), compared with a much smaller increase of 73,000 (+0.5%) in full-time work. Moreover, July’s job gain, when added to the 953,000 in June and the 290,000 from May, still leaves Canada with 1.3 million fewer jobs than it had in February, before widespread lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus began.

Canada still has a way to go.

Why so many part-time jobs in July?

StatsCan, the government agency that puts together these figures, notes that the COVID-19 labour market shock was felt particularly hard in part-time work. From February to April, losses in part-time work (-29.6%) were significantly heavier than in full-time employment (-12.5%). This was due to a number of factors, including part-time work being more prevalent in industries that were most affected by the economic shutdown, such as retail trade, accommodation, and food services. Despite large gains in July, however, employment remains well below pre-COVID-19 levels in accommodation and food services.

Part-time work is now showing something closer to a V-shaped recovery than full-time work, which is taking longer to recover. Growth in part-time work has outpaced full-time growth in each of the past three months. With July’s gains, part-time work is now closer to its pre-COVID level (-5.0%) than full-time employment (-7.5%).

The slower growth in full-time work is reflected in an increase in the proportion of part-time workers who would rather be putting in full-time hours. In July 2019, 22.2% of those working less than 30 hours per week would have preferred full-time work. One year later, this proportion had increased to 29.7%, indicating that the economic shutdown and subsequent reopening has resulted in a reduction, at least temporarily, in the number of hours being offered by employers.

Employment increased strongly in the services-producing sector (+348,000; +2.5%), driven by gains in wholesale and retail trade and in accommodation and food services. The services-producing sector has now reached 93.0% of its pre-COVID February level, essentially the same level of recovery as in the goods-producing sector (93.1%).

Newcomers enjoy upward trend in employment

The employment rate among very recent immigrants (those who arrived within the past five years) rose for a third consecutive month in July, up 2.1 percentage points to 60.5%. The month-over-month increase in this group’s employment rate was greater than the increases observed among landed immigrants of more than five years (+0.8 percentage points to 54.5%), and those born in Canada. Employment among recent immigrants is actually slightly higher than people born in Canada, who now show an employment rate of 59.1%.

The employment rate is defined as the number of employed persons expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years of age and over, whereas the unemployment rate is defined as unemployed persons expressed as a percentage of the labour force. Therefore, the unemployment rate and employment rate together don’t necessarily add up to 100.

Employment increases in most provinces

In Ontario, Canada’s most popular destination province for newcomers, employment rose by 151,000 (+2.2%) in July, building on an increase of 378,000 in June and bringing employment to 91.7% of its pre-pandemic level. The initial easing of COVID-19 restrictions occurred later in Ontario than in most other provinces. Indeed, restrictions have been eased more slowly in certain parts of Ontario, including Toronto, than in other parts. The unemployment rate in Ontario now stands at 11.3%, slightly above the national average but with scope for further decreases if further reopening goes according to plan.

Employment in Quebec increased by 98,000 (+2.4%) in July, led by increases in part-time work. This added to gains in the previous two months and brings employment in Quebec to 94.4% of its pre-COVID level. Quebec’s unemployment rate decreased to 9.5%, the third consecutive monthly decrease.

The number of people employed in British Columbia increased by 70,000 (+3.0%) in July, reaching 93.5% of the February employment level, with the unemployment rate falling to 11.1%. Vancouver, however, is lagging slightly behind BC as a whole; employment in the city and its surrounding suburbs is at 89.9% of the February level.

Alberta showed its first decrease in unemployment since the economic shutdown, dropping to 12.8% from 15.5% last month. Employment in Alberta increased by 67,000 (+3.2%) in July, including gains in both full-time and part-time work.

Employment in Saskatchewan rose by 13,000 (+2.5%) while the unemployment rate fell to 8.8%. Neighbouring Manitoba increased (+12,000) for the third consecutive month and the unemployment rate declined to 8.2%.

Out east, employment in Newfoundland and Labrador increased by 4,300 (+2.1%) and the unemployment rate dropped to 15.6%.

In Nova Scotia, employment rose by 3,400 (+0.8%) in July, reaching 92.7% of its February level. The unemployment rate in the province declined to 10.8%.

Employment in Prince Edward Island rose by 1,100 in July (+1.5%), adding to the gains in the previous two months. The unemployment rate declined to 11.7%.

In New Brunswick, employment was little changed in July after recording employment gains of 39,000 from April to June. Employment in the province was at 96.6% of its pre-COVID February level, the most complete employment recovery of all provinces to date.

Each province’s employment figures are far stronger in July than back in April, as shown by the table below, courtesy of StatsCan.

The Canadian economy added 953,000 new jobs in June, of which a slim majority (488,000) were in full-time positions. Many businesses forced closed by the pandemic have now reopened, hiring back workers who had been temporarily laid off and, in some cases, hiring for entirely new positions.

With back-to-back months of job growth in Canada — nearly 300,000 jobs were added in May — and consumer confidence returning, workers and families across the country, including immigrants, may be relieved to see real signs of life in the Canadian economy after a tough few months.

The unemployment rate in Canada fell to 12.3 percent in June after hitting a record high of 13.7 percent in May. While this was the largest monthly decline on record, the unemployment rate remains much higher than February, when it was 5.6 percent.

Canada’s economic rebound continues

Around three million workers in Canada lost their jobs through March and April, an unprecedented number of layoffs, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

According to Statistics Canada, the government agency that compiles these monthly job figures, employment rose by nearly one million in June (+953,000; +5.8%), with gains split between full-time work (+488,000 or +3.5%) and part-time work (+465,000 or +17.9%). However, employment in June was 1.8 million (-9.2%) lower than in February, before the pandemic unleashed its effects on public health and the economy.

So, Canada still has a way to go before pre-Covid employment levels might be a reality again.

Sharper recovery than previous economic downturns

The employment losses resulting from the COVID-19 economic shutdown were unprecedented in their speed and depth, but there is a fundamental difference between the 2020 economic downturn and previous downturns. In this case, the economy was effectively frozen, deliberately so, in the interests of public health. This resulted in quite a different sort of downturn whereby legislators, acting on the advice of public health authorities, implemented temporary measures such as the closure of many businesses and stay-at-home orders.

As those measures are relaxed, the economy returns to life.

With the easing of restrictions in May and June, the initial recovery of employment — to within 9.2% of pre-pandemic levels — has been sharper than in previous downturns, when recovery to pre-downturn employment has taken from two to five years.

This gradual easing of restrictions and the re-opening of the economy continues to present both opportunities and challenges for employers and workers. Physical distancing in restaurants, bars, cafes, and stores means that many businesses are not operating at full capacity, or even close to it.

Statistics Canada states that as more Covid-related restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, it is expected that the number of people on temporary layoff will decrease as people return to their previous job or, either by necessity or choice, transition to looking for new work.

Employment increases in all provinces

By the time the latest jobs data was gathered in mid-June, all provinces and cities across Canada had substantially eased their Covid-related restrictions, and this was reflected in the job growth figures nationwide.

In Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, employment rose by 378,000 in June (+5.9% over May), the first increase since the economic shutdown. The proportion of people working less than half of their usual hours declined by 6.5 percentage points to 14.1 percent in Ontario, where the unemployment rate declined 1.4 percentage points to 12.2 percent as the number of people on temporary layoff declined. The recovery rate in Toronto, the largest city in Ontario and Canada, was slightly slower than in Ontario as a whole, mainly due to the fact that the easing of some restrictions in Toronto was delayed until June 24.

Quebec’s unemployment rate, at 10.7%, is now below the national average. Quebec added 248,000 (+6.5%) jobs in June, adding to similar gains (+231,000) in May when the province led the way in job growth nationally. The unemployment rate in Montreal is now 12.3 percent, down nearly three percentage points from May. The decline in unemployment in Quebec was entirely driven by fewer people on temporary layoff.

British Columbia added 118,000 jobs in June, following an increase of 43,000 in May. The proportion of employed people working less than half of their usual hours declined, and the unemployment rate edged down 0.4 percentage points to 13.0 percent.

In the other Western provinces, employment increased in Saskatchewan (+30,000) for the first time since the economic shutdown and rose for the second consecutive month in both Alberta (+92,000) and Manitoba (+29,000).

In New Brunswick, the first province to begin easing restrictions during the spring, employment increased by 22,000 in June.

Employment increased in the other Eastern provinces as well. For the second consecutive month Nova Scotia (+29,000) had net job growth, while Newfoundland and Labrador (+6,000) and Prince Edward Island (+1,700) also chipped in.

The lowest current unemployment levels in Canada are in Quebec (10.7 percent) and New Brunswick (9.9 percent).

Canada’s economy added 289,600 jobs in May, most of them full-time, as parts of the economy reopened during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Some economists had predicted a loss of around half a million more jobs in May — in addition to the three million or so jobs lost in Canada through March and April — and an unemployment rate of 15%.

But the latest data from Statistics Canada shows an unemployment rate of 13.7%, up from 13% last month. The increase in Canada’s unemployment rate came as more people started looking for work, rather than additional layoffs. 

Statistics Canada also says the number of people who worked less than half their usual hours fell by 292,000 in May.

The reopening of Canada’s economy comes as provinces and municipalities can say with confidence that they are “past the peak” of contagion having “flattened the curve”, with more manageable case loads and new practices in place to ensure that businesses that are allowed to reopen in some way may do so safely. This has allowed businesses to reopen in a staged manner, a practice that should continue through the summer months, all going according to plan.

So, is this month’s Jobs Report good or bad news? Trevin Stratton, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Chief Economist and VP of Policy, says we shouldn’t read too much into the figures just yet.

“It is indeed a strange time when we react favorably to slowing job losses that by any standard measure would be catastrophic. Today’s figures [289,600 jobs gained, but 13.7% unemployment] are both terrible and positive at the same time,” he said in a release.

Meanwhile, Royce Mendes, senior economist at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC), noted, “The surprisingly positive readings on employment paint a more optimistic picture of the early part of the recovery, but there’s still a long road back.”

The long road back: where are the new jobs created in Canada?

Quebec accounted for nearly 80 per cent of the jobs created. Employment in Quebec increased by 231,000 (+6.5%) and the proportion of workers who worked less than half their usual work hours for COVID-19-related reasons declined by 6.6 percentage points to 19.3%. 

This follows a devastating early spring during which the unemployment rate in Quebec shot up to 17%, a rate that has now snapped back in line with the national average at 13.7%. The Quebec provincial government eased restrictions on much business before Statistics Canada gathered data mid-May, notably in construction from mid-April, and in retail trade and manufacturing outside Montreal from May 4. Despite the slower reopening of the economy in the Montreal census metropolitan area, home to nearly half the population of Quebec, employment increased by 97,000 (+5.3%) in the Montreal CMA in May.

Montreal posted strong job creation figures for May.

The proportion of workers working from a location other than home increased from 60% in April to 65% in May. The largest employment increases in Quebec were in construction (+58,000), manufacturing (+56,000) and wholesale and retail trade (+54,000), three industries with a relatively high proportion of jobs that are difficult to do from home. The fact that Quebec has a higher share of jobs that are difficult to perform off-site goes a long way to explaining why its rise in unemployment earlier this year was so extreme, and why its recovery now is so impressive.

Montreal’s unemployment rate (15.2%) is now in line with Canada’s two other largest cities, Toronto (15.4%) and Vancouver (14.1%), with the latter two having seen a rise in unemployment in May.

Ontario, home to Toronto, was the only province to see a loss in net job creation in May (-65,000). Most restrictions on economic activity remained in place in Ontario when the jobs data was gathered, as Ontario’s government has taken a more cautious approach to reopening the economy. We may expect job creation in Ontario to grow through the summer months as its phased reopening unfolds.

British Columbia added 43,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate rose 1.9 percentage points to 13.4% as more people looked for work. Almost all of the employment increase in B.C. were in the services-producing sector (+41,000), led by accommodation and food services (+12,000), educational services (+12,000), and wholesale and retail trade (+12,000). Like Ontario, B.C. should show stronger employment figures over the coming months.

Meanwhile, unemployment in Alberta now stands at 15.5%, while the Prairie provinces of Saskatchewan (12.5%) and Manitoba (11.2%) are holding steady as their phased reopenings take shape. Out East, Newfoundland (16.3%) now has the highest unemployment rate in Canada, despite 10,000 new jobs in May, while Nova Scotia (13.6%), PEI (13.9%), and New Brunswick (12.8%) are all within a percentage point of the national average.

The Canadian economy is feeling the impacts of the coronavirus pandemic, with the loss of around two million jobs in April — a record high — and a national unemployment rate of 13 percent, up from 7.8 in March.

However, leading economists had expected the loss of four million jobs and an unemployment rate of 18 per cent by now.

The April Labour Force Survey (LFS) from Statistics Canada reflect labour market conditions during the week of April 12 to April 18. By then, the COVID-19 economic shutdown — including a number of travel restrictions, business closures, and physical distancing measures — had been fully implemented across Canada.

Before the coronavirus made its way to Canada, national unemployment was steady at less than 6 percent and wage growth was outpacing inflation. The loss of 1,993,800 jobs in April follows one million jobs lost in March, while many of those who still have work have seen their hours and incomes slashed.

As of the week of April 12, the cumulative effect of the COVID-19 economic shutdown—the number of Canadians who were either not employed or working substantially reduced hours—was 5.5 million, or more than one-quarter of February’s employment level. – StatsCan

But if any country can bounce back quickly, it’s Canada. The government’s wage subsidy scheme, which encourages employers to retain workers by covering up to 75% of wages for a 12-week period, is now in full flow, as is the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), which assists those who have been laid off.

However, the state may not be willing or able to offer this level of economic support beyond a few months. Fortunately, Canada’s provinces, little by little and at varying speeds, are opening up more sectors of their economies through May and into the summer months, in doing so giving workers and families the economic support they need by more traditional means. As more provinces’ economies open to more sectors over time, it may be expected that more workers will be engaged in employment, even if in some cases they work fewer hours or earn less income than previously.

Has Canada reached peak unemployment for this pandemic?

It’s probably too early to say, but signs are that the dramatic hike in unemployment from February to March and again into April may not be as bad when May’s figures are released in early June. Indeed, it is possible that the unemployment rate will steady or even decrease as government support schemes continue and more sectors of the economy open for business.

Where in Canada has high unemployment right now?

Canada’s three largest cities — Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver — have all suffered to some extent since February, but Montreal in particular witnessed a drastic climb in unemployment. Quebec’s largest city clocked in with unemployment sitting at 18.2% in April, up from less than 5% in February.

Meanwhile, Toronto’s unemployment rate for April stood at 11.1% (up from 5.5%) and Vancouver’s 10.8% (up from 4.6).

Montreal’s unemployment rate has skyrocketed.

As for the provincial picture, again it’s Quebec, with an unemployment rate of 17%, leading a race that nobody wants to win. Newfoundland (16%) follows in second, with the other Atlantic provinces of New Brunswick (13.2%), Nova Scotia (12%), and PEI (10.8%) faring slightly better. Out west, Manitoba (11.4%), Saskatchewan (11.3%), Alberta (13.4%), and British Columbia (11.5%) have all seen rises in unemployment to varying extents. Ontario, Canada’s most populous province and home to the highest share of newcomers, has an unemployment rate of 11.3%.

And how are immigrants in Canada doing?

Employment among recent immigrants (those who arrived within the past five years) fell more sharply from February to April (-23.2%) than it did for non-immigrants (-14.0%). According to StatsCan, this is partly because recent immigrants are more likely than people born in Canada to work in industries that have been particularly affected by the COVID-19 economic shutdown, such as accommodation and food services, and less likely to work in less severely-impacted industries, such as public administration.

More established immigrants are faring better. This may be expected, as these immigrants have had more time to put down roots, establish professional careers and, in many cases, enter public administration jobs. Employment among the total landed immigrant population declined by 18.0% from February to April (not adjusted for seasonality), as established immigrants (10 years or more) (-17.0%) and recent immigrants (more than 5 but less than 10 years) (-17.4%) fared better than their very recently-arrived counterparts.

It was all going so well.

Just weeks ago, the outlook for Canada’s labour market was favourable. The national unemployment rate had hovered between 5 and 6 percent for the previous couple of years, and companies were struggling to find workers. Wage increases were outpacing inflation. Canada’s economy was humming. Everything was rosy. The immediate future looked bright.

Then the coronavirus pandemic hit, and hit hard. Over recent weeks COVID-19 has wiped out jobs, either temporarily or permanently. The global health crisis quickly initiated a severe economic downturn, and companies started laying off staff in their droves – well over one million workers in Canada applied for Employment Insurance (EI) benefits in the couple of weeks after large portions of the economy grinded to a halt. Many of those who kept their job (so far) have seen their hours reduced, affecting their income.

This probably does not tell the whole story of COVID-19 and Canada’s economy so far, however. StatsCan, Canada’s national statistics agency, released its monthly Labour Force Survey on April 9, using March 15 to 21 as the sample week – a time when the government began enforcing strict guidelines around social gatherings and called on non-essential businesses to close up shop. But this Mid-March snapshot does not include layoffs from late March or early April, and so Canada’s unemployment rate today is probably even higher than 7.8%.

“These interventions resulted in a dramatic slowdown in economic activity and a sudden shock to the Canadian labour market,” states the StatsCan report. “The slowdown continued beyond the LFS [Labour Force Survey] reference week and is likely to be more fully reflected in April LFS data.”

The unemployment rate increased in all provinces except Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island. The largest increases were in Quebec (+3.6 percentage points to 8.1%), British Columbia (+2.2 percentage points to 7.2%), and Ontario (+2.1 percentage points to 7.6%). And though Alberta’s unemployment rate officially stands at 8.7% (+1.5 points), Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has predicted unheard-of unemployment levels to come in that province, as high as 22% as more employers fight to survive.

March showed the steepest one-month decline in employment in data that go back to 1976. (Source: StatsCan, Globe and Mail)

Not all bad news

“Almost all of the increase in unemployment was due to temporary layoffs, meaning that workers expected to return to their job within six months,” reads the findings. As far as StatsCan is concerned, the glass is half full.

To bridge the gap, the Government of Canada has rushed through a number of measures that Prime Minister Trudeau calls ‘the largest economic program in Canada’s history’. This package includes a 75% wage subsidy (yet to be fully rolled out) and the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), which opened for applications on April 6 and is already sending out money to affected workers. Canada’s Employment Insurance (EI) program has also kicked into high gear for many of those who were laid off over recent weeks.

Canada is dipping into its rainy day fund, but this time it’s pouring. Finance Minister Bill Morneau estimates the total cost of the wage subsidy at $71 billion and the emergency response benefit at another $24 billion.

To learn more about entitlements and economic support for newcomers to Canada, please visit our guide.

When we last spoke to you it was election day in Canada, remember how warm it was? Yeah, us too! Back then we stated that the strength of the economy would be a key reason why the Liberal Party would emerge victorious and that they did. Unfortunately, the positivity in Canada’s employment figures didn’t continue in November as the unemployment rate jumped to 5.9 percent, with the country losing 71,200 jobs that month. Thankfully, the tide turned significantly in December with more than 38,000 full-time jobs being created, and many other part-time positions to boot. This increase reduced the unemployment rate to 5.6 percent.

Ontario and Quebec were the two provinces that led the job gains in the last quarter, with each province adding over 20,000 jobs in December alone. Furthermore,in Ontario there were 245,000 jobs created in 2019. On the flip-side, Newfoundland experienced 5,000 job losses in December.

Finally, the unemployment rate for landed immigrants, that’s anyone who has the right to live in Canada permanently, was 5.6 percent – broadly in line with Canada as a whole.

You can get more details on this information and much more from a video we recorded in snowy Montreal today.

It’s October, the sun is shining, the leaves have turned a beautiful shade of Autumnal gold and we’re less than a week out from the Canadian federal election. If that wasn’t enough, the the Quarterly Canada Jobs Report from Moving2Canada is here to paint a detailed picture of how the economy has been performing over the past three months.

Employment rose by 54,000 in September, which resulted in the unemployment rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 5.5 percent. In the past three months, employment increased by 111,000, or 0.6 percent. On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 456,000, or 2.4 percent. Over the same period, total hours worked were up 1.3 percent.

Canada job market: Fall 2019

Canada Job Market Fall 2019 update

New Canadian employment figures are released each month, and you’ll always find the latest data here on our Quarterly Canada Jobs Report.

The data below comes from the Labour Force Survey, produced by Statistics Canada.

• To view jobs in Canada, visit our Jobs Board
• Visit our Resume Format in Canada page for help with your resume
• Practical advice for finding jobs in Canada
• For construction jobs in Canada, visit Outpost Recruitment

Want to dig deeper into the Canada Jobs Report data? Try these interactive tools, courtesy of StatsCan.

The Provincial Picture

What industries are attracting immigrants to Canada?

The latest jobs figures in Canada are healthy. Very healthy, in fact. Speaking on the continued jobs growth in Canada in the third quarter, Josh Nye, senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada, had this to say:

“There was no give-back after August’s strong jobs numbers as Canada recorded another above-50,000 employment gain in September (the fifth such increase in nine months this year). The labour force is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade, helping sustain job growth late in the economic cycle.”

But what has this got to with immigrants? Well, quite a lot actually.

Newcomers arrive to Canada for a whole host of reasons but job openings and new career opportunities are two of the most important factors. We also know that immigrants continue to contribute to Canada’s economy with unemployment levels either below or slightly above the figure for all Canadians depending on the origin continent of the immigrants in question. With that in mind, we have decided to share this visual representation of the top five industries being pursued by Express Entry candidates to Canada. We hope that this information will help you understand the Canadian jobs market, and the role of immigrants in it, more closely.

If you want to see how the figures in this quarter’s Jobs Report compare with previous ones, then feel free to view our helpful slides below.

Canada’s monthly unemployment rate increased from 5.4 to 5.5 percent in June, and while it is never positive to see this total creeping upwards, the reality is that the employment landscape in Canada remains extremely buoyant in the first half of 2019. In fact, the 5.5 percent unemployment total is a sizable drop from the already lean 5.8 percent figure from January.

In the last six months, the Canadian economy has added 247,500 jobs – the majority of them are full time positions – meaning that this is the single biggest employment growth spurt since 2002.

In addition, wage growth has increased by more than 2 percentage points since January as employers continue to compete for the best candidates. From a provincial perspective, almost all provinces (Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador) have seen unemployment rate reductions since the start of the year.

Finally, immigrants continue to prosper in Canada in 2019 as the economy reaches record-level growth. Find out what employers are saying about the role they play ahead of this October’s federal election below.

Canada job market: 2019’s first six months

Canada Job Market Summer 2019 update

New Canadian employment figures are released each month, and you’ll always find the latest data here on our Moving2Canada Jobs Report.

The data below comes from the Labour Force Survey, produced by Statistics Canada.

• To view jobs in Canada, visit our Jobs Board
• Visit our Resume Format in Canada page for help with your resume
• Practical advice for finding jobs in Canada
• For construction jobs in Canada, visit Outpost Recruitment

Want to dig deeper into the Canada Jobs Report data? Try these interactive tools, courtesy of StatsCan.

The Provincial Picture

October election is business time for immigrants to Canada

With just over three months to go until Canadians go to the polls to elect a new federal government, it should come as little surprise that the issue of immigration is to the fore.

The number of immigrants moving and settling in Canada has increased steadily under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s premiership – with 321,035 new permanent residents in Canada in 2018 – and a political debate has emerged about what immigration route Canada should pursue in the next four years. However, among the business community, there appears to be a clear consensus on this issue.

With the Canadian unemployment rate currently at 5.5 percent, it is widely predicted that immigrants will be needed to grow the economy in the months and years to come. A June 25 report showed the country’s farm labour shortage is costing billions and is expected to balloon in the next decade.

Speaking on the vital role that immigrants have played in growing the Canadian economy, Goldy Hyder, head of the Business Council of Canada, had this to say:

“We don’t want immigration to be used as a political weapon here as it has been in the United States.We agree with the federal government’s targets and we need to meet those targets. The facts clearly demonstrate that Canada is going to need immigrants to help grow the economy.”

This sentiment was echoed by Rocco Rossi, head of Ontario’s Chamber of Commerce who stated that:

“We could do with even more (immigrants), we have enormous needs.”

It remains to be seen what will happen in October’s federal election but it’s not an exaggeration to suggest that the country’s continued economic growth is intrinsically tied to the number of immigrants entering Canada each year. We will continue to monitor this situation closely and keep you informed of all updates.

If you want to see how the figures in this month’s Jobs Report compare with previous months, then feel free to view our helpful slides below.