Will Large CEC Draws be the Norm in 2026?

But recently, things have been looking a little different. IRCC has issued almost as many CEC invitations from the start of December 2025 (19,000) to now as it did between February-November 2025 (19,500 total). The recent large draws have many candidates wondering how long this might last – or if it’s the new norm for 2026.  

The reality is that we don’t know – only certain people at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) know what’s next. Unfortunately, we don’t have a direct line to them. But we’re going to take a look at the data that’s been publicly shared to see where we think CEC draws might take us this year.  

Key Takeaways 

• It’s unlikely that we will see multiple 8,000 invitation rounds in a row. In fact, the most recent round inviting 8,000 candidates may be the largest CEC draw we see this year.  

• We think it’s more likely that invitations will slow down in the coming rounds.  

• Our estimates are based on trends, but they shouldn’t be relied on when you’re deciding whether to enter the Express Entry pool or potential immigration pathways.  

Why We’re Expecting Smaller CEC Draws in 2026 

We’ll nerd out in a moment about what we think we’ll see in 2026, but we won’t bury the lede here.  

The reality is that the current pace of draws is very likely unsustainable.  

There have been 19,000 CEC invitations issued since the start of December 2025. This is 19,000 in around 6 weeks. If this pace continues, we would likely be on track to see around 80,000-110,000 invitations issued to Canadian Experience Class candidates by June 2026 (with those invitations translating to admissions by the end of 2026).  

That’s most likely too many invitations for what’s been allocated in 2026. 

Here’s why:  

Looking Backward: CEC in 2025 

In case you missed it, we outlined what happened in the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) in 2025 in our detailed recap of last year in Express Entry. Last year saw almost 36,000 of the 140,000 invitations to apply issued directly through CEC rounds.  

IRCC hasn’t released complete information for 2025 so we don’t have a complete picture about what admissions looked like for CEC last year. But, we do know that 48,960 people were admitted through CEC between January and October 2025 – that’s 46% of Express Entry admissions during this period. This is in line with historical trends.   

Looking Ahead to 2026 

Canada is hoping to admit 109,000 skilled workers through the High Skilled programs in 2026 (ie. The Express Entry programs: Canadian Experience Class, Federal Skilled Trades, and Federal Skilled Workers). Past trends suggest that around 46% of those admissions would be through the CEC program, or 50,140 admissions.  

This means that we will need to see more invitations to those eligible for Canadian Experience Class than we did in the first half of 2025. While that is good news, the reality is that 2025 had a very slow start when it came to CEC invitations.  

So, Will We See More Large CEC Draws in 2026? 

With the background context out the way, let’s break this down simply:  

Based on past trends, IRCC may be planning for 43,500 to 54,500 Canadian Experience Class (CEC) admissions in 2026. Since July 2025, IRCC has already sent about 30,000 invitations to CEC candidates. In past years, many category-based invitations also went to CEC candidates. In the second half of 2025, that likely added another 15,000 to 18,000 CEC invitations. 

That means 45,000 to 48,000 CEC invitations have been issued for 2026. These invitations will likely fill around 50,150 permanent resident spots. This leaves very few spots still open. 

There is more to consider. IRCC data shows nearly 22,000 CEC applications still being processed. Many of these applicants will become permanent residents in 2026. 

Because of this, CEC invitations will likely slow down in the coming months. 

Unknowns That May Impact The Size of the CEC Draws in 2026 

However, there are a lot of unknowns that could impact the number of invitations we’ll see. So, don’t take what I’ve outlined here as the only pathway forward – the reality is that there are likely things going on behind the scenes that we don’t know about.  

One of the most heartbreaking things we see are reports of people who didn’t enter the pool because they didn’t believe they would receive an invitation. If you’re eligible, it’s likely worth just having your profile in the pool – just in case. It’s free to enter the Express Entry pool, and your profile remains active for a full year. Plus, you can update it at any time. So, as we see it, there’s little harm in having an active profile. Get our detailed guide to setting up your profile (for free).  

Here are some things that could impact the overall volumes of invitations we’ll see going to Canadian Experience Class candidates in 2026:  

Prioritizing In-Canada Candidates  

The latest Immigration Levels Plan did not specifically outline that there’s a plan to prioritize in-Canada candidates (previously called the in-Canada focus), unlike 2025’s levels plan. That said, it is generally believed that IRCC hopes to prioritize in-Canada candidates where possible – outside of the French category-based draws, which will necessarily need to bring candidates in from outside Canada.  

If this is the case, then it’s possible that a higher percentage of invitations will go towards those in the Canadian Experience Class than the 43,500-54,500 outlined above.  

In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if this crept higher – closer to 60,000-70,000 throughout 2026. This would mean we could expect to see a steady flow of invitations going to CEC candidates – though this still wouldn’t support continued draws at the 6,000-8,000 per draw range.  

The Impact of the TR to PR Program 

The outline here doesn’t include numbers from the planned TR to PR program admitting in-Canada workers, since we don’t have any information about this program or how it will be rolled out. We believe it’s likely we’ll see an additional 33,000 permanent resident admissions going to candidates in Canada in 2026-2027, though. So, if that program ends up being rolled out through Express Entry, we’ll likely see more CEC invitations throughout 2026.  

More Hybrid CEC-Category Rounds 

My colleague Rebecca Major outlined that IRCC may shift its focus in 2026 to hybrid CEC-category based rounds. We know that IRCC has planned to invite Canada-based physicians through category-based rounds this year, and Rebecca predicts that we may see a broader shift.  

You can read her take on this possible direction for 2026 here.  

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