Why More Newcomers Are Settling Outside Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal

Now? That number has dropped to 46% in the 12 months ending mid-2025. That’s not a small adjustment. That’s a real change in where people are choosing to build their lives. Canada’s immigration story is no longer just about attracting newcomers. It’s about where they stay, where they move next, and which regions are turning arrivals into long-term residents.

New Statistics Canada data shows that newcomers are spreading out across Canada, instead of settling mainly in Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal.

Key Takeaways

• Newcomers are spreading out beyond the Big Three. Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal still matter, but they’re no longer the default landing spots they once were.

• Big-city growth has cooled. With fewer temporary residents and slower overall growth, the biggest hubs aren’t absorbing as much of the population increase as before.

• More smaller and mid-sized cities are getting attention. As settlement patterns shift, more newcomers are choosing a wider range of cities and provinces.

• Housing and work drive the “second move.” People often move within a province for better housing, and when they move to another province it’s more likely tied to work or family.

The Big Three Slowdown 

The “Big Three” census metropolitan areas (CMAs) – Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal – have long been Canada’s main newcomer magnets. For years, these cities felt like growth machines. But from July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, that momentum slowed sharply. 

Toronto recorded virtually flat growth (-0.0%) during that period. That’s a dramatic change from the year before, when it saw record growth of +269,143 people (+3.9%). In other words, Toronto went from rapid expansion to standing still in just one year. 

Vancouver grew by only +0.2%. A big reason was a net loss of 10,098 non-permanent residents, compared with a net gain of +91,573 the year before. Its previous growth rate had been much higher at +3.7% between July 2023 and 2024. 

Montreal grew by +0.5%, also slower than the year before (+2.4%). It still recorded a net gain of +17,635 non-permanent residents, but that’s far below the +98,757 it gained in the preceding year.  

However, it wasn’t only a Big Three issue. All 41 CMAs saw slower population growth than the year before. So, what changed? 

The Main Driver: Fewer Temporary Residents 

The biggest factor behind the slowdown was a decline in non-permanent residents, especially study permit holders. Large cities tend to host more temporary residents, so when those numbers drop, growth slows quickly. At the same time, immigration overall fell 6.2% nationally between 2023–24 and 2024–25.  

The decline was even sharper in the biggest cities: 

• Toronto, ON: -10%

• Vancouver, BC: -14% 

Permanent immigration has now replaced temporary residents as the main driver of population growth. Permanent immigration tends to be steadier and more spread out. It may signal the end, at least for now, of explosive urban growth driven mainly by temporary residents. 

The Rise of Secondary Cities 

While growth slowed in the largest CMAs, several other cities stood out between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025: 

• Edmonton, AB: +3.0%

• Calgary, AB: +2.9%

• Moncton, NB: +2.9% 

In addition to benefiting from permanent immigration, Edmonton and Calgary also recorded the largest net gains from interprovincial migration for the third consecutive year. These changes reflect the growing popularity of these cities, both among newcomers and established Canadian residents. 

Meanwhile, in the last five years, the share of immigrants settling in the largest cities within Ontario and Quebec has declined significantly, when compared to the July 2019-2020 numbers: 

• Toronto’s share of Ontario immigrants fell from 76.1% to 60.5%

• Montréal’s share of Quebec immigrants fell from 83.1% to 65.3% 

The Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau and the Québec CMA both saw notable increases in their share of new immigrants. 

Why Newcomers Are Choosing Other Cities 

The numbers show us what has changed. Now let’s look at what’s driving those changes and why more newcomers are looking beyond the Big Three CMAs. 

1. Housing affordability matters

Toronto and Vancouver remain epicenters of Canada’s housing crisis. When housing costs stretch budgets too far, people must reconsider their options in more affordable locations. That applies to Canadians and newcomers alike. 

2. International students are staying where they study

International students study across Canada, in major metro areas, smaller cities and regional communities. After graduation, some move for work or leave Canada, but those who remain in Canada often continue building their lives in the province where they studied, especially once they’re working and progressing toward permanent residence. 

3. Federal immigration tightening

The 2026– 2028 Immigration Levels Plan (much like the 2025– 2027 plan) has reduced both permanent resident and temporary resident targets and set an explicit goal of bringing the temporary resident share down to about 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2027.  

Provincial Nominee Programs and regional immigration programs account for a larger share of the Immigration Levels Plan. As a result, newcomers moving to Canada are spreading out across the country, rather than being concentrated in the three urban hubs. Similarly, temporary residents in Canada are looking beyond Toronto, Vancouver, and Montréal and paying closer attention to regional options and pathways, since the best route to PR can depend on where you study, live and work. 

Where People Settle Long-Term 

Urbanization has stalled for the first time in decades. As of July 1, 2025, 74.8% of Canadians live in a CMA, unchanged from the year before. Large cities aren’t shrinking dramatically. But they’re no longer absorbing the majority of growth. The result is that Canada is entering a more regionally balanced immigration era. The question now is, where do immigrants stay and why? 

Looking at five-year retention rates for the 2017 cohort, Ontario (93.5%), British Columbia (87.5%), and Alberta (87.3%) retained a high share of immigrants. In other words, most newcomers who landed in those provinces were still there five years later. These provinces tend to act as long-term anchors. 

Other regions face more challenges. In Atlantic Canada, Nova Scotia retention remains around 62%, and New Brunswick has improved to 51.7%, while PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador have seen declines. The Atlantic Immigration Program hopes to increase the rate of retention of newcomers to these provinces. 

Saskatchewan’s five-year retention rate dropped by 16.4 percentage points when comparing the 2013 cohort to the 2017 cohort. Many who left relocated to Ontario, Alberta, or British Columbia. 

The pattern suggests that while some provinces successfully attract newcomers, not all are able to keep them long term. 

Why People Move Within Canada 

According to the 2022 Canadian Housing Survey, about one-third of households (33.3%) moved to a different home in the previous five years. 94.4% of those moves happened within the same province, and often within the same city or town.  But the reasons behind those moves depend on how far people go. 

Moving Within a Province: It’s Mostly About Housing 

When people move within the same province, housing is the main driver.  The most common reason is simple: upgrading to a larger or better-quality home.  

About 25.3% of movers listed that as one of their reasons. After that came: 

• Becoming a homeowner (19.2%) 

• Moving to a more desirable neighbourhood (13.5%) 

• Changes in household or family size (13.5%) 

What’s interesting is that when Statistics Canada looked across five regions – Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies, and British Columbia – the top two reasons were the same everywhere, in the same order. No matter the region, people tend to move locally because they want better housing. 

Moving to Another Province: It’s Mostly About Work (and Family) 

Only 5.6% of households moved to a different province, but these moves tell a different story. Among interprovincial movers, the most frequently cited reason was a new job or job transfer (42.5%). Wanting to be closer to family (27.6%) was also common. 

Housing upgrades were far less important when people crossed provincial lines. Only 4.5% cited upgrading to a better home, compared with 26.6% of those who moved within their province. 

So, while local moves are mostly about housing, provincial moves are more about education, jobs, and family ties. 

What This Means for Newcomers 

You may find there’s a bit less competition when overall newcomer numbers are lower, especially in the places that used to get the biggest share. But it’s also a good reminder to look beyond the big cities. 

In many places, housing can be more affordable, and some job markets may feel less crowded, which can help you get your footing faster. You might also come across provincial nomination pathways that are closely tied to local labour needs. And while it depends on your field, some regions, including Alberta and the Ottawa area, have been drawing more attention as places where newcomers can build momentum. But retention matters. A strong first job doesn’t always mean long-term stability. The best settlement decisions balance housing, career growth, and community fit, because the goal isn’t just to arrive in Canada, it’s to stay, grow, and feel at home. 

Want help turning this data into a real plan for your move? Join our community to get insights, newcomer resources, and guidance navigating life in Canada.