Q1 2026 Express Entry Roundup: More Draws, More ITAs

Key Takeaways 

• IRCC issued 55,830 ITAs in Q1 2026, nearly double the same period last year and more than any single quarter in 2025. 

• CEC dominated the quarter, with 30,250 ITAs issued at cut-offs of 507 to 511. That’s already 84% of all CEC ITAs issued in all of 2025. 

• French-language draws remain one of the most accessible pathways, with cut-offs as low as 393 in Q1. 

• Five new categories launched in February 2026, including physicians and senior managers, both requiring Canadian work experience. 

What Express Entry Draws Looked Like in Q1 2026 

Between January 1 and March 31, IRCC held 19 draws and issued 55,830 invitations to apply (ITAs) for permanent residence. This is 82% higher than the 30,683 ITAs issued over the same period in 2025. In fact, it was higher than any single quarter in 2025. The October to December 2025 quarter came closest with 48,160 ITAs. 

Of these, 30,250 ITAs were issued under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC). French-speaking candidates received 18,000 ITAs. 2,939 invitations were issued to Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates. 4,000 ITAs were issued under the healthcare and social services occupations category.  

There were also two net-new category draws, for physicians and senior managers with Canadian work experience. These took place after IRCC’s announcement of the new five categories for 2026 in February: physicians with Canadian experience, senior managers and researchers with Canadian experience, transport occupations, and skilled military recruits. IRCC also retained most of the 2025 categories, including French language, healthcare and social services, trade, STEM, and education.  

CEC Was the Biggest Winner 

In the first three months of 2026, 30,250 ITAs went out to CEC candidates across six draws. This was more than three times the 9,350 CEC ITAs issued in Q1 2025 and made up over 54% of the total ITAs issued in the quarter. 

IRCC has maintained an in-Canada focus for a while, but compared to Oct-Dec 2025, when IRCC issued 15,000 ITAs, numbers more than doubled. 

In fact, only 35,850 CEC ITAs were issued in all of 2025. At the end of March 2026, we’re already at 84% of that number. 

CRS cut-offs for CEC didn’t fluctuate much. They stayed in the 507 to 511 range throughout the quarter, with the final draw of March being at 509. These cut-offs are considerably lower than the 521 to 542 range seen between January and March 2025. 

French Draws Remained Strong and Steady 

18,000 ITAs were issued to Francophone candidates in Q1 at cut-offs ranging from 393 to 400. That’s roughly in line with Q1 2025, when French draws issued 18,500 ITAs.  

The lowest cut-off for French draws in Q1 2025 was 379, but the highest in that quarter was 428. Cut-offs went as high as 481 in August 2025, when only 2,500 ITAs were issued (which is considered small for French draws). 

The fact that over 32% of the ITAs in Q1 2026 went to French-speakers aligns with the government’s goal of rebuilding Francophone communities outside Quebec. 

Small But Consistent Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) Draws 

With seven draws, the PNP led in terms of number of draws conducted in the quarter. Although the total ITAs issued only added up to 2,939, it was slightly higher than the 2,833 issued in Q1 of 2025. 

The relatively small number of ITAs was due to fewer candidates in the pool with provincial nominees. To put this into perspective, as of March 29, 2026, there were 351 candidates in the Express Entry pool with scores in the 601-1200 range. 356 ITAs were issued in PNP draw held on March 30, 2026, clearing out the pool of eligible candidates. This has been the trend for the last several months. 

Cut-off scores in Q1 ranged between 710 and 802. While this gap might seem vast, it is not uncommon for PNP cut-offs to fluctuate significantly. In 2025, PNP cut-offs ranged between 667 and 855. In the January-March 2025 quarter alone, cut-off scores fluctuated by 135 points. 

Occupation-Based Category Draws 

Category-based draws started slow but did better than in Q1 2025, which saw zero occupation-based category draws. 

Between February and March 2026, IRCC conducted draws for two newly created occupation-based categories: physicians and senior managers. Notably, both these categories require Canadian work experience. The healthcare category, which continues from 2025, saw one draw in Q1 2026. 4,000 ITAs were issued with a cut-off score of 467. This signifies a strong start to the year, as the largest healthcare draw of 2025 also saw 4,000 invites go out. 

391 ITAs were issued for the Physicians with Canadian experience category. At a dramatically low CRS cut-off of 169, the draw presumably emptied the pool of eligible candidates. The draw for senior managers with Canadian work experience saw 250 ITAs with a cut-off of 429. 

One notable change applied to all occupation-based categories: the minimum work experience requirement increased from six months to 12 months within the past three years.  

Our Express Entry Forecast for Q2 

It’s hard to make predictions when past draws have been inconsistent, but here’s what we expect the April to June 2026 quarter will look like. 

Canadian Experience Class 

CEC draws will continue, but those hoping for the cut-offs to 500 or below will likely have to wait. With over 30,000 ITAs already been issued under this category, we expect IRCC to conduct smaller draws in Q2. 

As of March 29, 2026, there were 11,648 candidates in the pool with scores in the 501-600 range. However, profiles in this range have been steadily declining. On 7 December 2025, less than three months ago, there were 27,096 profiles in this range. This means IRCC will eventually have to lower cut-offs, possibly in Q3. 

We expect five or six CEC draws in Q2 of 2026, given IRCC’s continued in-Canada focus.  

Given the steep ITA numbers we’ve seen in Q1, it is possible that some TR-to-PR transitions are happening through the CEC program. 

Provincial Nominee Program 

PNP was the only category that saw a draw every single month last year, and we expect that pattern to continue. We predict six PNP draws in the April to June 2026 quarter. 

Overall, 10,898 ITAs were issued to PNP candidates in 2025. We saw anywhere between 1,743 and 3,660 PNP ITAs per quarter. We expect draw sizes to be on the higher end of this range in 2026because PNP targets for 2026 are 91,500, significantly higher than the 55,000 target for 2025. 

However, the math isn’t that simple. First, most PNP applications are processed outside of the Express Entry system. According to a Statistics Canada report, in 2024, only around 38% of PNP applications were processed through Express Entry. 

Second, we need to factor in applications that are already in processing. As of March 9, 2026, there were already 121,000 PNP applicants waiting for a decision (including those who did not apply through Express Entry). This means even if IRCC did not conduct any PNP draws this year, they could still meet their target. 

We’re not saying we expect that to happen. On the contrary, we expect small but consistent draws to continue throughout Q2 2026, with anywhere between 2,000 and 3,000 ITAs issued. 

French and Healthcare & Social Services Draws 

48,000 ITAs were issued to French-speakers in 2025, and 14,500 were issued to candidates in healthcare and social services occupations. These remained the largest, most consistent categories last year, and we expect that trend to continue in 2026. 

We predict three or four French language draws in Q2 2026. These will remain large, and we expect around 15,000 to 19,000 ITAs to be issued to French-speakers in this quarter. 

Healthcare and social services draws will be less frequent. We anticipate one or two large draws with 2,500 to 4,000 ITAs going out in the quarter. 

Other Category-Based Draws 

This is where we venture into guesswork territory. As of February 2026, there are 10 categories in total (this includes French and healthcare, which we already talked about). 

Does that mean IRCC has to conduct at least one draw for each category this year? Not necessarily. A review of 2025 category-based draws shows that besides French and Healthcare and social services occupations, IRCC only conducted draws for two categories: Education and Trade occupations. Two 2025 categories (Agriculture and agri-food occupations, and STEM occupations) remained untouched. 

Based on this pattern, we expect at least one (possibly two) of the following categories to see a draw in Q2 of 2026: 

• Trade occupations 

• Transport occupations 

• Researchers with Canadian work experience 

• Skilled military recruits 

CRS cut-offs for these are hard to predict for these and will depend on the number of eligible candidates already in the pool. If there are only a few hundred candidates for a particular category, it is not uncommon for the cut-off to be an arbitrary low score (such as 169 for the Physicians draw in February 2026). If there are sufficient candidates in the pool, expect scores in the range of 425 to 500. 

Zooming Out: The Broader Outlook for Express Entry in 2026 

The pattern across Q1 2026 (and 2025) clearly shows that candidates already in Canada with skilled work experience, and those with French-language ability are being prioritized. 

According to the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, the 2026 target for the Federal High Skilled category is 109,000. This includes CEC and category-based draws.  

In Q1 of 2026, 52,891 ITAs were issued to candidates under CEC and category-based draws (the Federal High Skilled category). This means we’re already at 51% of the target.  

This isn’t surprising, but it does mean that ITAs may slow towards mid-year and pick up in Q4. Admissions trail ITAs by several months as it takes time for candidates to apply for PR and for the applications to be processed. Currently, processing time for CEC applications sits at 7 months, so someone who applies for PR in April will only get a decision by November 2026. Candidates who enter the pool in later months may likely fall under the targets for 2027. 

If you’re in the Express Entry pool, or planning to enter it soon, you’ll have a better chance of success if you have French language proficiency, Canadian work experience, a provincial nomination, or at least 12 months of work experience in one of the specified categories. 

Revisit Express Entry Draws from Q1 2026 

• Provincial Nominee Program draws in Q1 2026: January 5, January 20, February 3, February 16, March 2, March 16, March 30 
• Canadian Experience Class draws in Q1 2026: January 7, January 21, February 17, March 3, March 17, March 31 
• French-Language Proficiency draws in Q1 2026: February 6, March 4, March 18 
• Physicians with Canadian Work Experience draw: February 19, 2026 
• Healthcare and Social Services Occupations draw: February 20, 2026 
• Senior Managers with Canadian Work Experience: March 5, 2026