Immigration Panel Recommends Lowering Canada’s Temporary Resident Targets Further

The C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council is urging the federal government to lower the share of temporary residents to between 3 and 4 percent of Canada’s population. The panel also recommends that Canada improve how it tracks people leaving the country after their permits expire.

The federal government is currently preparing its next Immigration Levels Plan after the public consultation closed on June 30, 2026. Meanwhile, IRCC has continued its efforts to reduce the number of temporary residents to under 5 percent of the population, after several years of rapid growth. In the first six months of 2026, international student and temporary worker arrivals were down 67 percent compared to the same period in 2024.

If you’re an international student, foreign worker, or prospective permanent resident, here’s what the recommendations could mean and why they matter.

Key Takeaways

• The federal government’s current goal is to reduce temporary residents to below 5 percent by the end of 2027.
• C.D. Howe’s immigration council recommends reducing temporary resident targets to 3 to 4 percent of Canada’s population.
• The council says Canada needs better data on when temporary residents leave after their permits expire.
• The experts also expressed concern about one-time initiatives increasing PR admissions above stated targets.

The Immigration Council’s Recommendations

The C.D. Howe Institute’s Immigration Targets Council is preparing its recommendations for the federal government’s annual immigration levels consultations.

C.D. Howe is an independent think tank with no direct affiliation to the government or to IRCC. It will be one among the many stakeholders who provide inputs to the IRCC on the Levels Plan.

Among its key proposals, the council recommends that Canada:

• reduce the temporary resident population to between 3 and 4 percent of the total population;
• improve data collection on temporary residents, particularly when they leave Canada after their permits expire; and
• provide a more complete accounting of permanent resident admissions by including one-time immigration programs alongside annual immigration targets.

According to the council, these measures would give policymakers a clearer understanding of immigration levels and ensure future targets better reflect Canada’s capacity to support newcomers.

Better Tracking of Temporary Residents

One of the council’s biggest concerns is that Canada does not have complete information about what happens after temporary residents arrive.

According to Parisa Mahboubi, the chair of the C.D. Howe Immigration Targets Council, while IRCC tracks the number of study permits and work permits it issues, there is less certainty about how many temporary residents leave Canada when their permits expire, how many extend their status, or how many remain in the country without authorization.

The council argues that more accurate exit data would allow governments to better estimate Canada’s non-permanent resident population and evaluate whether immigration targets are being met.

Since June 2020, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) collects exit information on all travellers, including those leaving Canada by land and commercial airlines. However, matching exit information to expired or cancelled visas is not an automatic process.

Accurate tracking can help improve long-term planning for housing, healthcare, education, and other public services that depend on accurate population estimates.

Lowering Temporary Resident Numbers to 3-4 Percent of the Population

The federal government has already been working to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada. Its current objective is to bring the temporary resident population below 5 percent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027.

According to Statistics Canada estimates, non-permanent residents represented about 6.17 percent of Canada’s population as of July 1, 2026, down from a peak of more than 7 percent in late 2024.

Government measures introduced since 2024 have also led to a sharp decline in new arrivals. Some of these measures include study permit caps, tighter PGWP eligibility rules, low-wage LMIA caps, and restrictions on spousal open work permits.

According to numbers released by IRCC:

• Canada welcomed 22,405 new international students between January and June 2026, compared with 124,930 during the same period in 2024.
• New temporary worker arrivals fell to 98,125 during the first half of 2026, compared with 244,985 in the first six months of 2024.

Despite these declines, the council argues that reducing temporary residents to below 5 percent isn’t enough. Mahboubi told Toronto Star that the 5 percent figure should be seen as the “ceiling, not the floor.”

Based on the Q2 2026 numbers, 5 percent of the population amounts to rough 2.070 million non-permanent residents. In comparison, 3 percent amounts to around 1.242 million — a difference of 828,000 temporary residents.

More Transparency in Permanent Resident Numbers

In addition to recommendations on temporary residents, the council says the federal government should provide a fuller picture of permanent immigration.

The council notes that Canada has announced one-time permanent residence initiatives outside the annual Immigration Levels Plan, including pathways for certain protected persons and skilled workers. According to the council, reporting these admissions separately from the annual plan makes it more difficult to understand the total number of permanent residents Canada expects to admit each year.

In the interest of transparency, in June 2026, IRCC started releasing monthly data on permanent residence admissions. This data clearly distinguishes between admissions under existing programs and one-time initiatives. Moreover, the targets for the one-time initiatives are clearly set out in the supplementary information accompanying the Immigration Levels Plan.

What This Means for International Students and Foreign Workers

The panel’s recommendations do not change Canada’s immigration rules. There are no new restrictions or caps on study permits, work permits, or permanent residence applications.

However, C.D. Howe is preparing its submission to the government on the immigration levels planning for 2027-2029. The next Immigration Levels Plan is expected to be released in November 2026, and C.D. Howe’s recommendations could factor into IRCC’s targets for the coming year.

That said, IRCC’s decisions regarding future immigration plans will be based on many factors, including inputs from the public and other stakeholders, employer demand, the economic situation, and more.

Join the Moving2Canada community to stay informed on the latest immigration news, policy updates, and resources for newcomers.