Canada Temporary Resident Population Tracker: Q2 2026 Update

We track these numbers using Statistics Canada’s official estimates. This shows how Canada is moving toward IRCC’s goal of bringing temporary residents below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. It also explains what changes are driving the trend. 

Canada’s Temporary Resident Share Falls to 6.17%

As of July 1, 2026 (Q2 2026), Statistics Canada estimates that:

• Total population: 41,498,407

• Non-permanent residents (NPRs): 2,779,774

• NPR share of population: ~6.69%

The 6.69% share is down from 6.7% at the end of Q1 2026. But it is still well above the federal government’s goal of bringing the temporary-resident share to less than 5% by the end of 2027.

Statistics Canada reports the non-permanent resident (NPR) population declined by an estimated 18,875 people.

The Trend: Three Consecutive Quarters of Decline

After years of rapid growth, Canada’s non-permanent resident population has now declined for three straight quarters. It has fallen from a peak of 2.98 million in Q4 2024 to 2.78 million in Q2 2026.

Here’s how the numbers have evolved recently:

Table here

How Far Is Canada from the Less-Than-5% Target? 

Using the Q2 2026 population figure, a temporary-resident share of 5% would equal roughly:

≈ 2.089 million non-permanent residents

At 2.77 million, Canada would need to reduce the NPR population by around 689,854 people to fall below the federal target – based on the current population size. That means further declines are almost certainly coming.

Work Permit Expiries Are Driving the NPR Decline

Within the NPR group, the largest single category is work permit holders at 1,496,248. That means over half of all non-permanent residents in Canada (about 53.8%) were work permit holders in Q2 2026.

Media reports have suggested that over 1.3 million work permits (including extensions) are scheduled to expire in 2026.

These work permit expiries will continue contributing to NPR declines, which is why the next quarterly population updates will be especially important to watch.

Some other NPR categories saw declines too. Key among them were study permit holders, which decreased 5.3% over last quarter, reaching 399,133 in Q2 2026.

Asylum claimants and protected persons decreased slightly in numbers, but continue to make up a significant proportion of the overall NPR population. This NPR group declined by 7,015, or 1.3%, in Q2 2026. Asylum claimants and protected persons now comprise over 19% of the total non-permanent resident population in Canada.

Why the NPR Numbers Matter for Policy

These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re the foundation of how the government measures progress toward its less than 5% target by 2027.

The Immigration Levels Plan sets hard caps for permanent residents, but temporary residents are tracked differently. While IRCC controls who enters or stays through permit approvals, renewals, and asylum decisions, the actual population counts come from Statistics Canada.

Using IRCC data, demographic modeling, and statistical adjustments, Statistics Canada estimates how many people are actually in Canada on temporary status at a given moment. By tracking this, we can track how IRCC is progressing toward its goal.

The Changed Goal 

IRCC announced its goal in the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan to bring temporary residents to below 5% of the population by the end of 2027. This gives the government more room to adjust temporary resident numbers based on jobs and housing capacity and economic needs, while still sticking to a clear target. 

That new goal has set an ambitious benchmark, reducing the number from 5% to less than 5% of the total population, or roughly 2,074,920 people (based on Canada’s Q2 2026 population estimate of 41,498,407). Achieving this would require cutting the number by hundreds of thousands over the next year and a half. 

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds. 

Will IRCC Achieve Their TR Population Target?

Is IRCC’s goal of bringing down the non-permanent resident population to below 5% by the end of 2027 achievable? Probably.

With six quarters left to go, IRCC is still at least 689,854 short of its target. Note that this is a moving target, as it is based on the overall population, which also changes every quarter.

Over the last two years, since Q2 2024, the total NPR population has declined by 120,309. In percentage terms, NPRs have gone from 7.04% to 6.65% of the population. If one were to look at the numbers alone, it would appear that despite the policy changes, the government hasn’t significantly moved the needle on actual numbers.

But the reality is more complicated. Some policy measures will take time to bear fruit, as study and work permits that were issued previously expire over the coming year or two.

Broadly, we need to look at several aspects here:

NPR Arrivals

New student arrivals in the first seven months of 2026 were 80% less than the same period in 2024. Similarly, worker arrivals between January and July 2026, were 48% below 2024 levels. That said, worker admissions, at least, are now showing signs of stabilizing. But slower intake alone will not bring the NPR population down. It must go hand-in-hand with increased outflow of people already here.

NPR Exits

Although reports suggest that 1.4 million study and work permits are set to expire in 2026, there is little information available on how many have already expired and how many will expire in H2 of 2026.

It’s important to note that an expiring work permit or study permit does not automatically mean someone leaves Canada. Many people renew, switch to a different permit, change status (including becoming a permanent resident), or remain in Canada while awaiting a decision.

But when rules tighten, and fewer people can renew or switch status, more of those “decision points” can lead to people leaving the temporary resident group. This helps explain why Statistics Canada has reported more outflows than inflows, and why the NPR total kept falling into Q2 2026. However, it makes it harder to accurately predict to what degree permit expiries will align with NPR exits.

Besides setting targets, IRCC has also improved processing times for work permits. This means refusals will come through faster, and this may force some people to leave sooner.

TR to PR Transitions

Another factor to keep in mind is TR to PR transitions, which can boost the total population even as they reduce NPR numbers. In the first seven months of 2026, 127,135 former temporary residents become permanent residents of Canada. This means that although NPR numbers declined by 83,377 between January 2026 and July 2026, 1.5 times that many temporary residents became permanent residents in that time.

Asylum Claims or Other Non-Permanent Residents

It is worth noting that asylum claimant numbers have risen, even as study permit and work permit holders decline. It is possible, but not certain, that a small percentage of people may have claimed asylum at the end of their study or work permit term.

Some may also remain in Canada without status, but without seeking asylum. This is not unexpected as pathways to remain in Canada narrow for many who have been here for years or even decades.

All things considered, it does seem that IRCC is inclined to keep TR numbers down. Even if the student and worker arrivals hold steady at present levels, the country should be well-placed to hit its current target.

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds.