Canada Temporary Resident Population Tracker: Q2 2026 Update

We track these numbers using Statistics Canada’s official estimates. This shows how Canada is moving toward IRCC’s goal of bringing temporary residents below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. It also explains what changes are driving the trend. 

Canada’s Temporary Resident Share Falls to 6.17%

As of July 1, 2026 (Q2 2026), Statistics Canada estimates that:

• Total population: 41,417,056

• Non-permanent residents (NPRs): 2,558,562

• NPR share of population: ~6.17%

The 6.17% share is down from 6.45% at the end of Q1 2026. But it is still well above the federal government’s goal of bringing the temporary-resident share to less than 5% by the end of 2027.

Statistics Canada reports the non-permanent resident (NPR) population declined by an estimated 117,879 people.

The Trend: Six Consecutive Quarters of Decline

After years of rapid growth, Canada’s non-permanent resident population has now declined for six straight quarters. It has fallen from a peak of 3.15 million in Q4 2024 to 2.55 million in Q2 2026.

Here’s how the numbers have evolved recently:

Table here

How Far Is Canada from the Less-Than-5% Target? 

Using the Q2 2026 population figure, a temporary-resident share of 5% would equal roughly:

≈ 2.07 million non-permanent residents

At 2.55 million, Canada would need to reduce the NPR population by around 487,710 people to fall below the federal target – based on today’s population size. That means further declines are almost certainly coming.

Work Permit Expiries Are Driving the NPR Decline

Within the NPR group, the largest single category is work permit holders at 1,296,046. That means over half of all non-permanent residents in Canada (about 50.6%) were work permit holders in Q2 2026.

Media reports have suggested that over 1.3 million work permits (including extensions) are scheduled to expire in 2026.

These work permit expiries will continue contributing to NPR declines, which is why the next quarterly population updates will be especially important to watch.

Some other NPR categories saw declines too. Key among them were study permit holders, which decreased 8.6% over last quarter, reaching 394,220 in Q2 2026.

Asylum claimants and protected persons, however, increased slightly in number and proportion of the overall NPR population. This NPR group grew by 6,990, or 1.3%, in Q2 2026. Asylum claimants and protected persons now comprise over 20.5% of the total non-permanent resident population in Canada.

Why the NPR Numbers Matter for Policy

These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re the foundation of how the government measures progress toward its less than 5% target by 2027.

The Immigration Levels Plan sets hard caps for permanent residents, but temporary residents are tracked differently. While IRCC controls who enters or stays through permit approvals, renewals, and asylum decisions, the actual population counts come from Statistics Canada.

Using IRCC data, demographic modeling, and statistical adjustments, Statistics Canada estimates how many people are actually in Canada on temporary status at a given moment. By tracking this, we can track how IRCC is progressing toward its goal.

The Changed Goal 

IRCC announced its goal in the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan to bring temporary residents to below 5% of the population by the end of 2027. This gives the government more room to adjust temporary resident numbers based on jobs and housing capacity and economic needs, while still sticking to a clear target. 

That new goal has set an ambitious benchmark, reducing the number from 5% to less than 5% of the total population, or roughly 2,070,852 people (based on Canada’s Q2 2026 population estimate of 41,417,056). Achieving this would require cutting the number by hundreds of thousands over the next year and a half. 

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds. 

Will IRCC Achieve Their TR Population Target?

Is IRCC’s goal of bringing down the non-permanent resident population to below 5% by the end of 2027 achievable? Probably.

With six quarters left to go, IRCC is still at least 487,710 short of its target. Note that this is a moving target, as it is based on the overall population, which also changes every quarter.

Over the last six quarters, since Q1 2025, the total NPR population has declined by 579,567. In percentage terms, NPRs have gone from 7.55% to 6.14% of the population. If one were to look at the numbers alone, we could say that yes, IRCC is well on track to hit its goal.

But the reality is more complicated. The declines we’re seeing in the population are the result of policy measures that were largely enacted in 2024 and early 2025. Some of them will take time to bear fruit, as study and work permits that were issued previously expire over the coming year or two.

Broadly, we need to look at several aspects here:

NPR Arrivals

New student arrivals in the first five months of 2026 were 83% less than the same period in 2024. Similarly, worker arrivals between January and May 2026, were 63% below 2024 levels. That said, worker admissions, at least, are now showing signs of stabilizing. But slower intake alone will not bring the NPR population. It must go hand-in-hand with increased outflow of people already here.

NPR Exits

Although reports suggest that 1.4 million study and work permits are set to expire in 2026, there is little information available on how many have already expired and how many will expire in H2 of 2026.

It’s important to note that an expiring work permit or study permit does not automatically mean someone leaves Canada. Many people renew, switch to a different permit, change status (including becoming a permanent resident), or remain in Canada while awaiting a decision.

But when rules tighten, and fewer people can renew or switch status, more of those “decision points” can lead to people leaving the temporary resident group. This helps explain why Statistics Canada has reported more outflows than inflows, and why the NPR total kept falling into Q2 2026. However, it makes it harder to accurately predict to what degree permit expiries will align with NPR exits.

Besides setting targets, IRCC has also improved processing times for work permits. This means refusals will come through faster, and this may force some people to leave sooner.

TR to PR Transitions

Another factor to keep in mind is TR to PR transitions, which can boost the total population even as they reduce NPR numbers. In the first five months of 2026, 84,135 former temporary residents become permanent residents of Canada. This means that over 29% of the decline in NPR numbers, from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, was due to status transitions, not people leaving the country.

Asylum Claims or Other Non-Permanent Residents

It is worth noting that asylum claimant numbers have risen, even as study permit and work permit holders decline. It is possible, but not certain, that a small percentage of people may have claimed asylum at the end of their study or work permit term.

Some may also remain in Canada without status, but without seeking asylum. This is not unexpected as pathways to remain in Canada narrow for many who have been here for years or even decades.

All things considered, it does seem that IRCC is inclined to keep TR numbers down. Even if the student and worker arrivals hold steady at present levels, the country should be well-placed to hit its current target.

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds.