Canada Temporary Resident Population Tracker: Q1 2026 Update

We track these numbers using Statistics Canada’s official estimates. This shows how Canada is moving toward IRCC’s goal of bringing temporary residents below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. It also explains what changes are driving the trend. 

Canada’s Temporary-Resident Share Falls to 6.46% 

As of April 1, 2026 (Q1 2026), Statistics Canada estimates that: 

• Total population: 41,417,056

• Non-permanent residents (NPRs): 2,676,441

• NPR share of population: ~6.46% 

The 6.46% share is down from 6.85% at the end of Q4 2025. But it is still well above the federal government’s goal of bringing the temporary-resident share to less than 5% by the end of 2027. 

Statistics Canada reports the non permanent resident (NPR) population declined by an estimated 117,879 people. However, the latest quarterly report suggests actuals could differ significantly from these estimates. It states that application processing time increases and policy changes, specifically an increase in permit extensions, could mean the actual NPR decline may not be as steep as expected.

The Trend: Five Consecutive Quarters of Decline 

After years of rapid growth, Canada’s non-permanent resident population has now declined for five straight quarters. It has fallen from a peak of 3.15 million in Q4 2024 to 2.67 million in Q1 2026. 

Here’s how the numbers have evolved recently: 

Table here

How Far Is Canada from the Less-Than-5% Target? 

Using the Q1 2026 population figure, a temporary-resident share of 5% would equal roughly: 

≈ 2.07 million non-permanent residents 

At 2.67 million, Canada would need to reduce the NPR population by around 605,600 people to fall below the federal target – based on today’s population size. That means further declines are almost certainly coming. 

How Work Permit Expiries Are Driving The NPR Decline 

Within the NPR group, the largest single category is work permit holders at 1,375,566. That means over half of all non-permanent residents in Canada (about 51%) were work permit holders in Q1 2026. 

Media reports have suggested that over 1.3 million work permits (including extensions) are scheduled to expire in 2026.

It’s important to note that an expiring work permit does not automatically mean someone leaves Canada. Many people renew, switch to a different permit, change status (including becoming a permanent resident), or remain in Canada while awaiting a decision. 

But when rules tighten, and fewer people can renew or switch status, more of those “decision points” can lead to people leaving the temporary resident group. This helps explain why Statistics Canada has reported more outflows than inflows, and why the NPR total kept falling into Q1 2026. 

These work permit expiries will continue contributing to NPR declines, which is why the next quarterly population updates will be especially important to watch.   

Why the NPR Numbers Matter for Policy

These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re the foundation of how the government measures progress toward its less than 5% target by 2027. 

The Immigration Levels Plan sets hard caps for permanent residents, but temporary residents are tracked differently. While IRCC controls who enters or stays through permit approvals, renewals, and asylum decisions, the actual population counts come from Statistics Canada. 

Using IRCC data, demographic modeling, and statistical adjustments, Statistics Canada estimates how many people are actually in Canada on temporary status at a given moment. By tracking this, we can track how IRCC is progressing toward its goal. 

The Changed Goal 

IRCC announced its goal in the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan to bring temporary residents to below 5% of the population by the end of 2027. This gives the government more room to adjust temporary resident numbers based on jobs and housing capacity and economic needs, while still sticking to a clear target. 

That new goal has set an ambitious benchmark, reducing the number from 5% to less than 5% of the total population, or roughly 2,070,852 people (based on Canada’s Q1 2026 population estimate of 41,417,056). Achieving this would require cutting the number by hundreds of thousands over the next year and a half. 

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds.