A Breakdown of Canada’s 2026 PR Backlog and What It Means for Applicants

Inventory matters because IRCC does not process applications in isolation. Every permanent residence file must fit within the Immigration Levels Plan, which sets how many people Canada can actually accept each year. When there are more applications in the system than available spaces, applicants wait. 

IRCC explicitly acknowledges this in the tool itself: 

“The Immigration Levels Plan sets the number of newcomers that Canada plans to welcome each year. If there are more people applying than available spaces, processing times may increase.” 

The January 14 update is significant because it provides a snapshot of the backlog Canada is entering 2026 with. When we compare those numbers against the 2026 immigration levels, we can start to see who is likely to be processed in 2026, and who may still be waiting beyond 2027 if their file is already in the queue. 

A critical reminder before we look at the numbers 

This analysis is a guide only. 

There will be applicants who already have approvals but have not yet activated their permanent residence. When they land in 2026, they will still count toward that year’s quota. There is no public data showing how many of these cases exist, so no analysis can be exact. 

That said, the relationship between inventory and targets still tells us a lot. 

What the January inventory tells us 

Federal high-skilled programs (CEC, FSW, PNP – Express Entry) 

There are approximately 60,000 federal high-skilled applications in the system going into 2026, compared to a 2026 target of 109,000. 

This is one of the few areas where inventory and targets are reasonably aligned. Even after accounting for approved-but-not-landed cases, there is still room to finalise most applications. 

What this means: 

• Most applicants in the queue for these programs should be finalised in 2026 

• Extended delays are more likely to be case-specific rather than systemic 

Atlantic Immigration Program (AIP) 

IRCC is entering 2026 with 13,600 AIP applications in the queue, against a target of roughly 4,000 admissions. 

That gap matters. Even with steady processing, there are simply not enough spaces for every application already submitted to result in PR in 2026, or 2027/2028 looking at notional targets set.  

What this means: Some applications will be finalised in 2026 but many will roll into future years. 

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP – total) 

Across Express Entry and non-Express Entry streams, there are approximately 106,200 PNP applications in the system. Even with a high 2026 target of 91,500, existing demand for PNP spots exceeds places available.  

What this means: Not every PNP application currently in the queue will be finalised in 2026. Some spillovers into 2027 are unavoidable. 

PNP processing will continue, but inventory already exceeds available spaces. 

Family class (spouses and partners) 

There are approximately 119,600 family sponsorship applications in the system going into 2026, compared to a target of around 69,000. 

What this means: A significant number of families will be waiting beyond 2026 for their PR file to be processed. 

Humanitarian & Compassionate (H&C) 

IRCC is carrying roughly 95,400 H&C applications against a target of approximately 1,100 admissions. 

This is why H&C processing times stretch into 10 years or more.  

What this means: 

• Only a very small number of applicants will be finalised in 2026 

• Most cases will remain in the system for many years 

Protected persons in Canada 

There are approximately 132,200 protected person applications in the queue, with a target of about 20,000. This volume guarantees a multi-year backlog. 

What this means: Some progress will be made in 2026 but many applicants will be waiting well beyond 2026. 

The timing of this update is an important reminder of something many applicants overlook: the time it takes to process a file is not just about how many officers are available. Processing is constrained by capacity, not just speed. 

IRCC can only finalise as many permanent residents as the Immigration Levels Plan allows each year. When inventory exceeds those limits, files wait, even if they are complete and ready for a decision. 

The pattern is consistent: 

• Programs where inventory aligns with targets tend to move faster 

• Programs where inventory far exceeds targets create multi-year waits 

Understanding where your application sits relative to annual immigration levels is one of the most important ways to set realistic expectations for 2026 and beyond. 

For many applicants waiting for their PR application to be processed, temporary work permit options may still be available, especially for those already in Canada. Even if you are confident your PR application will be finalised in 2026 or before your current status expires, it is always prudent to review the options available to ensure you can maintain status and continue working in Canada while your application remains in the queue.