PNP targets will jump from 55,000 in 2025 to 91,500 in 2026 and then climb slightly higher to 92,500 for both 2027 and 2028, a clear signal that provinces are being asked to play a bigger role in shaping the country’s economic immigration future. 

This marks a sharp reversal from 2025, when IRCC reduced PNP spaces as part of a broader effort to rebalance economic immigration and prioritize workers already in Canada. At the time, Minister Marc Miller emphasized that adjustments were needed to make programs more responsive to labour market realities, and that provinces had a crucial role to play in identifying their own workforce needs.

(It was also around this time he made headlines for referring to some provincial premiers with a French term loosely translated as either “idiots” or “knuckleheads.”)

Signs of a Comeback 

If you’ve been watching closely, there were signs this was coming. September and October saw a steady increase in PNP activity, with several provinces ramping up invitation rounds. 

Then came October 16, 2025, when Immigration Minister Lena Metlege Diab confirmed the federal government would boost PNP allocations to give provinces greater control over regional labour needs. The new levels plan simply makes it official: the provinces are back in focus. 

Backlogs and Reality Checks 

While the higher allocations are welcome, they won’t produce an immediate surge of new nominations. The levels plan accounts for arrivals, that is, those who have had their permanent residence applications processed and approved.  

As of October 9, 2025, the PNP backlog stood at about 110,000 applications. Even with faster Express Entry–aligned PNP streams averaging around seven months of processing time, many candidates who receive invitations in 2026 likely won’t land until 2027 or 2028. 

In short, most of the new 2026 allocations will go to files already in the system. The levels plan may allow these files to be processed faster. The real impact will come later. The extra spaces planned for 2027 and 2028 could pave the way for ramped-up provincial activity and more consistent nomination rounds beginning in 2026, to make sure quotas are reached for 2027 and 2028. 

Where to Play in 2026

We don’t yet know how IRCC will distribute the new allocations across provinces, or how each province will choose to use them. Will they focus on Express Entry–aligned PNPs? Or will they lean on non-EE-aligned streams? 

Looking at a decade of data offers a few hints. 

Data from the IRCC open data, compiled by Moving2Canada. 

While the share of EE-aligned PNP admissions has grown since 2015, most admissions still come through non-EE streams. 

Will that change in 2026? Probably not. So far in 2025, only 7,885 PNP-specific Express Entry invitations have been issued. That means just 7,885 applicants with a provincial nomination entered the EE pool this year, and since a nomination almost guarantees an ITA, we don’t expect many EE applicants with a PNP nomination to be waiting there for long. 

Looking at recent PNP invitation trends, provinces continue to issue a much larger share of nominations through non-EE-aligned streams, suggesting this pattern will carry into 2026. 

Taken together, the data shows that provinces still favour their own independent pathways over EE-aligned programs. 

What Applicants Can Take from This 

For anyone planning to immigrate in 2026 or beyond, a few takeaways stand out: 

• Stay competitive: Interest in PNPs will rise fast, and many 2026 spots will be taken up by applicants already in the queue. But that shouldn’t discourage you, instead, focus on where the new allocations are going and how each province plans to use its additional spaces. 
• Stay flexible: Keep an eye on both EE-aligned and non-EE PNPs. Provinces may adjust their strategies as they balance speed, labour needs, and their share of the national target. 
• Stay vigilant: With expanded allocations, provinces may broaden eligibility criteria or launch new streams. Staying informed will help you spot opportunities early and adapt your plans accordingly. 

Sign up for our newsletter to receive up-to-date information on PNP draws, trends, and program changes for 2026.