Refugees vs PNPs: What’s Happening Behind The Scenes in Canadian Immigration?

Key Takeaways

• Canada’s provincial governments are being asked to agree to take more refugees to receive a higher PNP allocation in 2025.
• Newfoundland and Labrador has received additional spots in its PNP in 2025 after agreeing to welcome 290 refugees over the next two years.
• Canada’s federal government may be making further agreements with the provinces, so we may see the original provincial allocations shift in the coming weeks and months.

Background: The Federal Government’s Frustration over Refugee Resettlement 

There has been tension between Canada’s provinces for some time relating to the distribution of refugees. Quebec, for example, has been vocal about the volume of refugees landing in the province and its capacity to settle them.  

Here’s what Marc Miller, Canada’s Immigration Minister, said in September 2024:  

“Canada—like the rest of the world—faces unprecedented flows of migrants and refugees globally. That’s why we established a coordination table with provinces to work together to distribute asylum claimants fairly across the country—together. 

And that is why it is disappointing that provinces have walked away, effectively ending the Asylum Working Group. For clarity, the federal government was—and is—at the table with resources to work on sharing this challenge as a country. 

No asylum claimant is relocated without their consent—and provinces aren’t forced to take them on. We are working with provinces to demonstrate that there are longer-term economic and social benefits that may be available in welcoming asylum claimants, and the federal government is willing to work with provinces to support a sustainable and voluntary relocation model. What we need is partners who are willing, committed to and engaged on finding a way forward that is equitable and fair.” 

Canada Uses PNP Allocations to Negotiate Refugee Resettlement 

Then, in January, Marc Miller confirmed on social media that Canada’s federal government intends to use refugee resettlement as a bargaining tool for provinces to re-negotiate their Provincial Nominee Program allocations for 2025 – which have been slashed.  

Here’s what Marc Miller said in a post on X  

“Provinces and Territories that are willing to work in a responsible manner with Canada, including playing a role in taking on asylum seekers, will have an opportunity to regain coveted Provincial Nominee spots.” 

• See the post here. 

This is significant because the federal government reduced the 2025 target for the Provincial Nominee Program to 55,000. This is 50% less than the 110,000 target in 2024, which was originally slated to increase to 120,000 in 2025.  

Canada’s provinces have expressed their concern over the significant reduction in the targets. Most provinces rely on the PNP to fill job shortages and otherwise attract talented workers, since newcomers do otherwise tend to move to Quebec or Ontario (Toronto in particular).  

Finally, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the workers who planned immigration pathways in 2024 based on provincial nominee program trends. The allocations had been trending upwards for over a decade, and it was widely accepted that moving to provinces like Prince Edward Island or Saskatchewan could open doors for immigration that might not be open elsewhere. Many of us working in Canadian immigration were shocked to see the PNP targets slashed.  

I personally have a friend who planned to immigrate to BC through the PNP stream targeting veterinary workers. We haven’t yet seen a BC PNP draw this year, but with an allocation of just 4,000 for 2025, BC’s PNP is about to get extremely competitive.  

It’s hard not to be disappointed in the politicking when it has such a profound impact on real humans who are already living and working in Canada.  

So Will The Provinces Get Their PNP Allocations Back?

The answer seems to be yes, some most definitely will.  

Newfoundland and Labrador, which was originally allocated 1,050 provincial nominations for 2025. It recently announced an increase of 1,000 allocations after negotiating a new agreement with the federal government.  

“The new agreement involves: 

• Increasing Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Nominee Program capacity (1,050) by an additional 1,000 spaces, bringing the 2025 allocation to 2,050 spaces (compared to 2,100 in 2024). 

• Maintaining Atlantic Immigration Program capacity at 475 spaces. 

• Welcoming 290 humanitarian migrants to Newfoundland and Labrador over the next two years. 

• The Federal Government paying for the relocation of humanitarian migrants and upfront costs related to housing and wrap-around supports.”  

 (The bold emphasis is ours.) 

How Many Additional Nominations Might The Provinces Negotiate? 

That’s tricky to calculate, and we don’t have all the data at the moment to do so. But here’s a glimpse into what we know so far, vs the 2024 nomination allocations:  

These figures reveal that around 29,615 nominations have been allocated for 2025 already. 

It’s worth noting that the allocations allow provinces to make a nomination. But, once the nomination is made, the worker may bring family members with them – which means that the number of allocations is smaller than the ultimate number of arrivals.  

We know that the range for Provincial Nominee Programs in 2025 is 20,000-65,000 (from the Immigration Levels Plan). The allocations would have been granted to hit a target of 55,000. So, 30,000 nominations would be expected to result in 55,000 permanent residents in Canada. 

It seems the federal government would only have 5,000-8,000 nominations to grant the provinces to stay within the range it provided in the Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027. This would barely cover the reduction in nominations for most provinces, since Ontario, BC, Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan all lost more than 4,000 nominations each this year.  

In other words, it seems unlikely that the federal government could restore all the provinces back to their 2024 allocations – even if they agreed to take on additional refugees.  

This isn’t to say the federal government can’t go above this range – we just aren’t sure where it will pull the further figures from to achieve this.  

We’re interested to see how this unfolds in the coming weeks.