A Slow Start to Provincial Nominee Program Invitations in 2025

In this post, we’re going to compare last year’s PNP draw activity at the provincial level, and highlight some of the changes the provinces have already announced regarding their PNPs for this year.   

Key Takeaways 

• Total invitations in January 2025 plunged from over 10,000 in January 2024 to just 356. 

• Ontario shifted from large-scale draws (8,122 invites) to a highly targeted round with only 4 invitations. 

• BC’s draws shrank dramatically, moving from over 1,000 invitations to a single digit count in January. 

• Provinces are clearly struggling to make sense of their immigration allocations for 2025, after these programs had experienced significantly ongoing growth for the past decade.  

Comparing January 2024 to January 2025 in PNP 

Ontario
• January 2024: 8,122 invites
• January 2025: 4 invites 

British Columbia
• January 2024: 1,039 invites
• January 2025: 10 invites 

Manitoba
• January 2024: 392 invites
• January 2025: 320 invites 

Alberta
• January 2024: 109 invites
• January 2025: 0 invites (draws commenced in February) 

Prince Edward Island
• January 2024: 136 invites
• January 2025: 22 invites 

Quebec & Saskatchewan
• January 2024: 1,007 (Quebec) and 13 (Saskatchewan) invites
• January 2025: No reported draws 

Trends in PNP Draw Data in 2025 

Comparing this year’s data with last year’s, we see a clear trend toward more targeted draws by the provinces alongside a significant decrease in the total draw activity. In January 2024, we saw more than 10,000 invitations. In the same period in 2025, we saw 356. 

This reduction is clearly not proportionate to the 50% overall decrease in PNP nominations for the year. Instead, it hints at the challenges the provinces are facing in determining who should be prioritized. Let’s look at the provinces in more detail: 

Ontario’s Provincial Nominee Program in 2025 

Ontario’s 2025 draws have been very targeted—for example, a small round of just 4 invitations in the Employer Job Offer: Foreign Worker stream—compared to last year’s large-scale draws that reached thousands of candidates across health, tech, and international student streams. 

Homing In on BC 

BC has historically completed weekly draws, alternating between tech and general draws with targeted draws for in-demand workers each week, like clockwork with very few seasonal breaks. The pause in draws (outside of the small entrepreneur program draw we saw in January) is extremely unusual and highlights the difficulties BC faces in terms of allocating its 4,000 nominations for this year. 

We would predict that BC will continue to target workers through Tech Draws, as well as targeted draws for healthcare, childcare, construction, and veterinary workers. However, we would expect these draws to reduce in size and increase in competition.  

Alberta

In 2025, Alberta has focused on healthcare pathways and rural renewal, with its draws starting in February. We saw two dedicated healthcare draws (one non-Express Entry and one Express Entry) and a 190-candidate rural renewal stream draw between 3-6 February.  

Manitoba

Manitoba stands out as having a relatively unchanged approach. It has issued fewer invitations in 2025, compared to the same period in 2024. But its reduction is nothing like what we’re seeing from other provinces. This may hint towards Manitoba potentially making an agreement with federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller to accept refugees in exchange for an increase in PNP allocations for this year, but this is speculation at this point. You can read more on that here. 

Prince Edward Island

In 2025, PEI has so far issued a draw of 22 candidates focused on healthcare. Last year, PEI held larger draws (78 and 136 candidates) covering a wider range of sectors including construction, manufacturing, and a business work permit entrepreneur stream. While we are expecting to see another PEI draw in February (on the 20th), it’s likely that draw activity will remain deflated compared to levels from early last year. 

Quebec

There are no 2025 draws reported for Quebec yet – and we don’t expect to see any until later this year (likely around May). Quebec had previously announced a temporary pause on invitations for its Skilled Worker program, since it operates its own immigration program in conjunction with the federal government.  

What To Expect Going Forward 

Here are some of the things we expect to see in Provincial Nominee Program draws at the provincial level this year:  

• With allocations slashed, provinces will likely continue with smaller, more targeted draws, making every invitation count. 

• Expect tighter competition as provinces recalibrate and focus on candidates who clearly match local labor market needs. 

• Keep an eye on federal-provincial negotiations, as shifts in refugee or economic policies could impact future PNP allocations. 

• Provinces may introduce niche streams for priority sectors, offering opportunities for applicants with specialized skills.  

• Similarly, provinces may also close programs that don’t meet their immediate or high-priority needs. New Brunswick, for example, has closed the New Brunswick Student connection.  

In summary, PNPs are likely to switch from higher volume draws to careful, targeted selection. This is likely going to have an impact on your immigration journey.

We have always been advocates of planning multiple pathways, since immigration policy can change at any point. Unfortunately, for many applicants who planned to use the Provincial Nominee Program to become permanent residents in Canada, this may no longer be your best path forward.  

We suggest keeping an eye on trends in Provincial Nominee Draws over the next few months to see if it’s a viable option for you this year. If it looks likely that you may not receive a PNP invitation this year, you can see if you’re eligible for other pathways using our immigration quiz.