Express Entry 2026: What Canada’s New Immigration Plan Could Tells Us

Let’s look at what IRCC said would happen for Express Entry in 2025, what actually did happen, and what this might tell us about 2026. 

What the 2025 Levels Plan said would happen 

The 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan offered insight into how IRCC would use the Express Entry system to reach its immigration quotas, aligning selections with Canada’s evolving labour-market needs. 

Here is what it called for: 

Express Entry Priorities 

The plan called for 41,700 admissions through category-based draws, focusing on: 

• Health care occupations 

• Trade occupations 

• French-language proficiency 

These categories were chosen based on labour market data, stakeholder input, and provincial consultation. Notably, the plan left out STEM and agricultural draws, even though both remain on IRCC’s list of targeted categories. 

In-Canada Focus 

IRCC projected an in-Canada focus of nearly 83,000 admissions, mainly through the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) and other regional pathways. The intent was to prioritize those already working and contributing within Canada’s economy. 

PNP Expectations 

The 2025 Levels Plan didn’t go into much detail on Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) beyond allocating 55,000 spaces. Given that in the last couple of years, on average 27% of all ITAs went to PNP applicants, it was reasonable to expect that a good portion of these 55,000 spaces would be filled through EE-aligned PNP programs. Using the 27% benchmark, this would translate to roughly 14,850 PNP ITAs expected for 2025, a number far higher than what we’ve actually seen. 

What unfolded in 2025 

Once 2025 got underway, things evolved differently than expected. 

Express Entry Priorities 

To date, IRCC has issued around 30,000 ITAs to French speakers, 10,000 to health care workers, and only 1,250 to trades. Clearly, French-language and health care draws have been prioritized, and it would be hard to argue that trades have received any kind of priority. 

Then came something not hinted at in the 2025 Levels Plan, the Education category, introduced in March 2025, which has seen around 3,500 invitations issued so far this year. While this category wasn’t referenced in the plan itself, it was mentioned during IRCC’s public consultation earlier in 2024, suggesting the department was already considering expanding the category-based selection framework. This addition highlights how IRCC continues to adjust priorities dynamically as labour needs shift. 

Meanwhile, STEM and agricultural draws have not taken place to date, which is consistent with what the 2025 plan suggested — even though both remain officially listed among targeted occupations. 

In-Canada Focus 

The CEC draws have accounted for only 21,850 ITAs this year — far below expectations. Still, the broader in-Canada transition remains strong. From January to August 2025, more than 139,700 former temporary residents became permanent residents, nearly half of all new PRs during that period. 

Since the release of the 2025 Levels Plan, IRCC’s transition binder has provided deeper insight into how the department is pursuing its in-Canada focus. The binder hinted that up to 27,500 PNP spaces will also contribute to this category, expanding the definition beyond what was originally outlined in the plan. The next Immigration Levels Plan may better define the sources that make up the in-Canada target if it remains a key area of focus. 

PNP Reality 

Combining data from IRCC’s new processing tool with the volume of ITAs issued through Express Entry PNP draws shows that non–Express Entry PNP applications are growing much faster than EE-aligned ones. 

This suggests that provinces are becoming increasingly reliant on non-EE-aligned programs to meet their quotas and address local labour needs — a trend worth watching as IRCC shapes its 2026 immigration priorities. And although this shift might not be explicitly clear in the Levels Plan, it may become evident through IRCC’s actions throughout 2025. 

What this means for 2026 

The upcoming Immigration Levels Plan will likely include another annex outlining the updated role of the Express Entry system in meeting the 2026 targets. But if there’s anything we can learn from 2025, it’s that the plan will offer a sense of direction, rather than a precise blueprint. 

Like many others, we’re eagerly anticipating the release of the next Immigration Levels Plan, and you can bet we’ll be offering in-depth coverage and analysis for our community.