Canada’s Slower Population Growth: What It Means for Newcomers

The slowed growth is likely due to the significant immigration policy changes that came into effect in 2024, including international student caps, stricter criteria for temporary residents, and reduced permanent resident targets. These policies have resulted in heartbreak for many temporary residents who have been living and working in Canada, and who may no longer qualify for the Express Entry draws which have persistently high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-offs or Canada’s PNPs, which are struggling to meet demand.  

But, the slowed population growth may have a few slivers of silver lining for those in Canada.  

Fewer Non-Permanent Residents Could Benefit Job Seekers 

Between October 1, 2024, and January 1, 2025, the number of non-permanent residents in Canada dropped by 28,341. This was the first decrease since late 2021. For newcomers, a smaller influx of non-permanent residents may mean: 

• Less Competition for Jobs: With fewer people arriving on work or study permits, local job markets could open up, making it a bit easier for current and future newcomers to find work. 

• Potential Wage Growth: As the labor supply tightens, employers may need to raise wages to attract and keep skilled talent. 

Even though there are fewer non-permanent residents now, over 3 million remain in Canada, making up about 7.3% of the total population. Existing policies are designed to further reduce the number of temporary residents, so it’s likely we’ll see further slowing of population growth in Q1 of 2025 when the next population report is released.  

Slowdown and Housing: Possible Relief for Renters 

One of the biggest challenges newcomers face is the high cost of housing, especially in popular cities. Canada’s slower population growth could help cool some housing markets, including rentals. Early indicators already suggest falling rental prices in certain areas. For those just arriving, less competition for apartments could mean more options and potentially lower rent. 

• See the recent national rent report from Rentals.ca.

Annual Growth Still Strong 

Despite the recent slowdown, Canada’s population grew by 744,324 people (+1.8%) over 2024. While that’s lower than in 2023 (+3.1%) and 2022 (+2.5%), it still beats all annual growth rates from 1972 to 2021. Most of 2024’s growth happened during the first six months of the year (before the policy shift). 

• Why It Matters: International migration remains the key driver of this growth. In 2024, Canada welcomed 483,591 permanent immigrants—its highest total since 1972, when data became available. This supports the idea that Canada remains open to newcomers and continues to value international talent. 

Where Populations Grew and Shrunk 

Provinces and Territories with Gains 

From October 1, 2024, to January 1, 2025, these regions saw positive growth: 

• Alberta (+0.6%) 

• Saskatchewan (+0.3%) 

• Manitoba (+0.3%) 

• Yukon (+0.4%) 

• Northwest Territories (+0.3%) 

• Nunavut (+0.4%) 

Provinces with Population Declines 

Three of the Atlantic provinces experienced slight drops in population during the same period: 

• Newfoundland and Labrador (-0.1%) 

• Prince Edward Island (about -0.0%, but still a decline) 

• Nova Scotia (about -0.0%, but still a decline) 

These minor losses were linked to fewer non-permanent residents, lower immigration, and a natural decrease (more deaths than births). Such drops in the fourth quarter used to be common before 2021 but hadn’t happened since late 2020. 

Outlook for Newcomers 

1. Reduced Competition: With the slowing flow of non-permanent residents, newcomers might find it less crowded in job markets and rental hunts. 
2. Possible Job Growth: If fewer people enter on work permits, local employers may offer better wages to attract skilled newcomers. 
3. Housing Relief: Softer population growth could help balance the demand for rentals, potentially leading to lower rents or more choices for tenants. 

Of course, these benefits will vary by region, and the situation may change if government policies shift again. For instance, Alberta continues to show strong population gains, meaning it could remain a hot spot for jobs but also for housing demand. 

Final Thoughts 

For newcomers, this slower expansion could present new opportunities: more jobs, potentially higher pay, and a less crowded rental market. Even with the slowdown, Canada still relies heavily on international migration, welcoming near-record numbers of new permanent residents every year. As a result, it continues to be a country where newcomers can plan for a bright future (one a pathway to permanent residence has been established)—one that may become a bit more affordable in the months ahead, depending on the outcome of the trade war with the US.