Express Entry Draws in 2024: Expectation vs Reality

An undated internal memo from Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) might hold the answers. This rare document sheds light on what IRCC had planned for the second half of 2024, revealing strategic decisions that could explain why you didn’t get that ITA. 

With a focus on Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates, French-speaking applicants, and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), the memo outlined a clear strategy for addressing the needs of expiring Post-Graduate Work Permits (PGWPs) and meeting long-term immigration goals. However, expectations set by this internal plan didn’t entirely align with what unfolded in reality.

This article examines the memo’s key expectations, compares them with the reality of Express Entry draws from July to December 2024, and explores what these developments mean for prospective candidates for 2025.

Key Expectations From the Memo

Although the internal memo is not dated, we believe it was written in early June 2024, and laid out the following expectations for Express Entry draws for the second half of 2024. 

Focus on CEC Rounds:

IRCC planned to frontload Canadian Experience Class (CEC) rounds to maximize invitations for PGWP holders in 2024, particularly before October and November, as this is when a large quantity of PGWP expired. 

French Proficiency Rounds:

Maximize focus on French-speaking candidates, aiming to exceed the 30% target for Category Based Selection (CBS) rounds, to help work towards the yearly target of 7% in 2025. 

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP):

PNP-only rounds were expected to precede CEC or CBS rounds starting the week of June 17, 2024.

CRS Score Impact:

By focusing more on CEC-only rounds, IRCC expected the CRS cut-off to drop to around 500 due to increased invitations and pool depth.

Deproiritisation of Some Categories: 

To allow a stronger focus on French, Healthcare and Trade occupations, IRCC confirmed that they would no longer hold STEM, Transport or Agricultural draws.

The Reality of What Happened

Here is what actually happened from July 2024 to December 2024:

Focus on CEC Rounds:

Between July and September, there were consistent, high- volume CEC draws, with several thousand CEC candidates being invited with each draw. 

In October and November, IRCC conducted frequent CEC draws but the volume of invites issued was much lower than in prior months. 

This is in line with IRCC expectations in the memo. 

French Proficiency Rounds:

Out of the 11 category-based draws that took place in the second half of 2024, 8 of these were French language proficiency draws with almost 50% of the invites from category-based draws going to the French language category.

This is in line with IRCC expectations in the memo. 

One deviation from the memo is reference to the 7% target for 2025. This has since increased to 8.5% with the release of the new Immigration levels plan for 2025-2027. 

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP):

This expectation became a reality with IRCC conducting PNP draws before CEC and CBS draws. 

CRS Score Impact:

Despite the anticipation of CRS scores dropping to 500 for CEC-only rounds, the actual scores ranged between 507 and 515 between July and September and increased to between 539 and 547 in October and November.

Expectation did not meet reality when it came to the projected CRS cut-off. This could have been due to increased competitiveness in the Express Entry pool. 

In light of the news that points will no longer be awarded to applicants with a job offer, we do expect that the CRS cut-off will go to around 500 in the future. 

Deproiritisation of Some Categories: 

This expectation became a reality with IRCC conducting only French, Trade and Healthcare CBS.

But, how frustrating is this! IRCC internally decided to stop targeting certain categories but failed to inform the public about this decision. Their webpage still lists six categories under CBS, when really there are only three.

Other Interesting Findings from the Memo:

The internal memo not only outlined key priorities but also revealed several interesting insights that shed light on how decisions were made and why certain candidates may have been overlooked in the latter half of 2024.

General Draws:

The memo confirmed that the majority of those selected in the general rounds of invitations in 2024 were CEC candidates. This isn’t surprising, given that the CRS cut-off during general draws did not dip below 524 in 2024.

With the renewed focus on in-Canada applicants, we would be surprised to see a general draw in 2025. However, for those outside of Canada, don’t give up hope. Explore other options, and ensure your Express Entry profile is as strong as possible. Use this time to maximize your points so when general draws resume, you’re ready!

CEC CRS Cut-Off

The memo provides some insight into the competitiveness of the CEC pool. 98% of CEC applicants in the pool score over 500 CRS points! If you’re a CEC candidate with a score below 500, you should seriously consider ways to boost your CRS points. Even with the upcoming changes to job offer points in Spring 2025, this highlights just how competitive the CEC pool has become. Although this could change as we get into 2025, it is best to concentrate on making your CRS score as strong as possible.

Competitiveness of The Pool

The memo provides insight into the competitiveness of the Express Entry pool, noting that recent Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws were front-loaded due to a surge in Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP) expiring as a result of COVID-19 measures. This created a large influx of highly qualified applicants with Canadian Education and work experience, particularly in 2024, leading to higher CRS cut-offs. Most invitations were issued to candidates with scores above 500, making it challenging for lower-scoring candidates to secure an Invitation to Apply (ITA). This surge has contributed to the heightened competition within the pool.

However, as the memo suggests, this wave of PGWP expirations should largely be behind us by 2025. With fewer applicants facing expiring work permits, the overall competitiveness of the CEC pool may ease, and securing a spot could become more attainable. The immigration levels plan for the first time allocates a good portion of spots for in-Canada applicants, in theory, creating better opportunities for eligible candidates who are well-prepared. While the pool will still be competitive, 2025 may offer a more balanced environment for those seeking to immigrate to Canada with Canadian experience.

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