What the Future Looks Like for Category-Based Express Entry Candidates

Data from Employment and Social Development Canada’s (ESDC) Canadian Occupation Projection System (COPS) can help us understand which jobs are in demand now and whether they will stay that way. 

Key Takeaways 

• Healthcare has highest rate of vacancies among Express Entry eligible jobs 

• Trade vacancies, including non-Express Entry eligible jobs will most likely skyrocket 

• No STEM jobs are considered at high risk of shortage, but this can change at any time 

Healthcare and Social Services Occupations (Including Physicians)  

Since May 2023, there have been 62 category-based selection draws, with 38 of them specifically targeting in-demand occupations (the remaining 24 were for French Language Proficiency).  

Healthcare has been an Express Entry category since 2023, with social service occupations added in 2025.  

The latest data from StatsCan says vacancies in health-related occupations made up 15.0% (86,540) of all job vacancies in Canada in 2024.  

COPS predicts that this number will rise to 92,900 by 2033.  

Further, the COPS includes data showing which jobs are most likely to face a strong risk of worker shortages.     

COPS shows 38 NOC occupation codes that are likely to have a shortage between now and 2033. Of these, 24 are healthcare and social services occupations. 

Express Entry Healthcare Occupations with a Strong Risk of Shortage

Trade Occupations  

The latest report from Statistics Canada shows that year over year, vacancies in trades, transport, and equipment operators actually decreased by 11,900 (-11.0%) in the third quarter of 2025.  

The largest decreases were in vacancies for construction trades helpers and labourers (-2,700 to 9,600) and material handlers (-1,200 to 6,300).

However, job vacancies for carpenters have increased (+2,500 to 7,200).   

COPS data shows that occupations in the trades, transport, and equipment operator sector will rise even higher than healthcare to 125,600 vacant positions in 2033.  

These are the occupations at Strong Risk of Shortage that are eligible for an Express Entry ITA.  

Express Entry Trade Occupations with a Strong Risk of Shortage 

Education  

IRCC added an Education category in 2025. Among the eligible occupations, Early Childhood Educators and Assistants stand out as a Strong Risk of Shortage. COPS projects 16,300 vacant positions throughout 2025, rising to 16,900 by 2033.   

The surge in demand is likely in response to Canada’s growing need for childcare. It can take months for Canadian families to find an affordable daycare spot for their children, leaving one parent unable to remain in the workforce while taking on the majority of childcare duties. Learn more about childcare in Canada in our dedicated piece.  

STEM and Agriculture and Agri-food  

STEM covers occupations within Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics.  

Eligible STEM category occupations are highly engineering-oriented, such as mechanical engineers, civil engineers, and geological engineers, as well as technicians and assistants.  

There aren’t any STEM occupations considered at a strong risk of shortage, but this could change over the coming years, as some are listed at “moderate” risk.   

The same goes for jobs in Agriculture and Agri-food.   

This may partially help to explain why we didn’t see any STEM or Agriculture draws in 2025. We’re interested to see whether these two categories are maintained this year when the 2026 Express Entry draw categories are announced (possibly next month). 

The Long-Term Outlook 

There are no guarantees in any job hunt, but the long-term employment outlook is positive for Express Entry candidates who meet the criteria for category-based selection. Check out our article on top jobs in 2026 to find out what is in demand right now. 

Canada’s healthcare system is becoming increasingly strained by an aging population. Those in Healthcare occupations have a good chance of finding something. Multiple jobs should be available for workers for years to come.    

However, you may face some delays entering the workforce because provincial authorities license many healthcare occupations. You might need to retrain and get specific certificates before you are allowed to practice.  

The list of Express Entry-eligible trade occupations looks short, but the vacancy rate is expected to skyrocket across all trade occupations over the next few years. As a result, IRCC could add more eligible occupations to the category. A similar outlook exists for Education.   

STEM currently shows no eligible occupations with a strong risk of shortage, but several are at moderate risk. Candidates in STEM occupations shouldn’t be discouraged about their chances of either an ITA or finding a job once they arrive in Canada.  

The job landscape is constantly shifting. IRCC may add more Express Entry eligible categories. It could also add or remove occupations to existing ones. Keep up to date with the changes by joining the Moving2Canada community.