Looking Back at Our 2025 Express Entry Predictions: What We Got Right and Wrong

Now that 2025 is over, we can look back and see where those predictions held up – and where reality surprised us. 

Prediction One: Larger, More Consistent CEC Draws 

What happened: We were mostly wrong. 

We expected to see regular, bi-weekly Canadian Experience Class (CEC) draws in 2025, with around 3,000 to 7,000 invitations per month. That did not happen. 

Instead, CEC draws were very inconsistent. There were long stretches of time where there were no CEC draws at all. This was not something many people expected. 

That said, there were two moments that partly matched our prediction. Early in the year, we saw some draws that looked closer to what we had expected. Then, in December, there was a major increase. IRCC invited about 11,000 people through CEC in December alone. 

While that late surge was significant, it did not make up for the lack of steady draws during the rest of the year. For many candidates, 2025 felt unpredictable and stressful. 

Prediction Two: High CRS Scores Would Continue 

What happened: We were right. 

We predicted that CRS scores for CEC would stay high in 2025, and that is exactly what we saw. We’d outlined that we thought the score would stay above 510 for most of the year.  

In 2025, no CEC draw dropped below 510 points. The final draw of the year was 515, and many draws in the second half of the year were closer to 530. 

High CRS scores, combined with long gaps between draws, made things especially difficult for candidates. Many people were ready to apply but had to wait – and when draws did happen, the scores were still very high. 

While the end of the year showed some improvement, there is still a lot of uncertainty going into 2026. 

Prediction Three: Monthly French Draws 

What happened: We got the timing wrong, but not the emphasis. 

We expected to see one French-language draw per month, with 2,000 to 3,500 invitations each time. That did not happen. 

In reality, there were fewer French draws in 2025 than there were in 2024. There were also long gaps, including no French draws at all between roughly April and July. 

However, when French draws did happen, they were large. Early in the year, the draws were very large. Later in the year, French draws invited around 6,000 people at a time. 

A surprising element of the French category for 2025 was the higher number of refusals for French-language applications. If that trend continues, IRCC may issue even more invitations in 2026 to meet its targets. 

Overall, French remains one of the most predictable Express Entry pathways, given Canada’s strong commitment to admitting French speakers to Canada to live outside Quebec. 

Prediction Four: Trades and Healthcare Draws 

What happened: Mixed results. 

We expected to see 2–3 draws for trades workers in 2025. Instead, there was only one trades draw, held on September 18, which invited 1,250 people. 

Healthcare was very different. We predicted a smaller number of draws (2-3 throughout the year). IRCC held many more healthcare and social services draws than expected, especially in the second half of the year. 

After two small early draws, we saw regular healthcare draws later in the year, and many of them were larger than we had predicted based on the Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027. Given Canada’s ongoing healthcare worker shortages, this shift makes sense, and it is a positive one. 

What 2025 Taught Us 

The biggest lesson from 2025 is that Express Entry did not follow a clear pattern. Even when policy goals stayed the same, draw timing and size changed often and without much warning. 

Some of our predictions were accurate. Others missed the mark. But overall, 2025 showed how difficult it has become to predict Express Entry with confidence. 

As we move into 2026, one thing is clear: consistency matters just as much as CRS scores, and uncertainty has become part of the system.