Those hoping to study in Canada have experienced quite a lot of turbulence since early 2024, when Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) initially announced plans to overhaul the international student system. This continued throughout 2024 with massive changes to study permit processing (including the introduction of the Provincial Attestation Letter system), as well as huge planned decreases in international student numbers. 

International students have also seen massive changes in 2024 and 2025 to post-graduation work permit eligibility and spousal open work permit eligibility. These changes have made Canada a little less attractive as a study destination overall. 

So, with a planned 50% decrease in new study permits for 2026 – what does this seemingly huge change actually mean for those hoping to study in Canada in the coming years?  

What We Expected to See in 2026-2028 

Since 2018, the federal government has shared its actual target for immigration levels for the following year plus notional targets for the two years after that. So, in the 2025 Immigration Levels Plan, we did get a glimpse into what the government expected for the 2026 levels for international students. 

That plan outlined that it expected to provide new student permits to 305,900 students in 2025, 2026, and 2027.

Reported International Student Targets for 2026

But, that’s not the number we saw for 2026 in the Immigration Levels Plan for 2026-2028 tabled in today’s federal budget. Instead, the number was much, much lower. 

The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets a temporary resident admission target for international students at just 155,000 new study permits in 2026. This looks like a staggering decrease of almost 51% from the prior year’s levels plan.

The Reality of International Student Arrivals in 2025

From January to August 2025, Canada welcomed just 89,430 new international students, based on its data from the Understanding student and temporary resident numbers in Canada dashboard. This means 132,505 fewer international students arrived in Canada between January to August 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. 

If things continue at about the same pace, arrivals (calculated by the number of people issued study permits) could reach around 130,000 in 2025. Though, August is usually one of the biggest months in international student arrivals so it’s possible that the number of student arrivals may be even lower in 2025 – somewhere around the 110,000-120,000 mark. 

While the Immigration Levels Plan for 2026-2028 looks like a big departure from the original planned levels – it actually closely reflects what we’ve seen so far in 2025. 

If the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan was followed, we would have seen roughly double the number of international students entering Canada during this period. So, the roughly 50% planned decrease won’t have large impacts on international students – and the best suggestion we have for international students at this time is to not panic, and to proceed as though things will continue as they have been – since that’s what the Immigration Levels Plan shows us is likely to happen.

While the decrease may seem fairly staggering, in reality it aligns fairly closely with what we’ve seen so far in 2025 in terms of new international students arriving in Canada – which is what the Immigration Levels Plan actually details. 

So, 2026 is likely to be another year of ‘the same’ for international students.

‘The same’ may be high refusal rates for applications received – and likely around the same number of international students arriving each month as what we’ve seen in 2025 (or possibly even a little higher). 

IRCC’s data shows us that 214,795 new study permits were processed between January and August 2025. This means that refusal rates are sitting at around 62% so far for 2025, which is historically high. 

Recent headlines suggest that this is particularly true for prospective students from India, who may be facing higher than average refusal rates for study permits. Reuters reported earlier this week that around 75% of study permit applications from those with Indian citizenship have been refused so far in 2025. The Reuters reporting suggests that suspected fraud could be at least partially to blame for the high refusal rates.

To reiterate – while the numbers seem scary, the change in Immigration Levels Planning is not necessarily bad news. It does show that international student levels will remain lower than the highs they reached in 2023, but they aren’t cause for alarm for those applying today. 

If we were to guess what 2026 will look like for international students based on the current data and the recent Immigration Levels Plan for 2026-2028, we would anticipate a period of more stability and certainty for international students going into 2026. This would be a very welcome change (even if overall international student levels remain lower during this time).