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Immigration
By Rebecca Major
Posted on August 18, 2025
Get results as they happen – plus expert insights on what it means for your chances, straight to your inbox.
Today’s draw looks like most of the recent PNP draws we’ve seen this year: high scores, a smaller number of invitations, and back to the usual Monday schedule. And honestly? These PNP-only draws are starting to feel a bit same-old, same-old. The pattern is predictable, the scores stay high, and there aren’t many surprises or big changes to dig into.
For candidates, that’s not a bad thing – it means you know what to expect. If you’ve got a provincial nomination, you’ll get an invite. If you don’t, you won’t. Simple. But for those of us who watch and write about these draws, it can feel a little like déjà vu. But the real story isn’t in each PNP draw anymore, but in the bigger picture that shows up when you look back at the whole year.
Here’s what the numbers tell us so far in 2025:
6,470 ITAs issued across 15 draws
Average draw size: 431
Now compare that to 2024:
15,483 ITAs issued across 14 draws
Average draw size: 1,106
That’s a massive shift. In just one year, the average size of a PNP-only draw has dropped by more than half. And that change points us toward the bigger picture: the problem isn’t really with the draws themselves, it’s with the number of candidates holding a provincial nomination in the first place.
Today’s draw invited all candidates in the pool with a CRS score above 600. The smaller size of recent PNP draws isn’t because IRCC is deliberately holding back invitations each round. Instead, it’s the result of earlier policy decisions.
IRCC has imposed strict caps on the number of applicants each province can nominate. As provinces approach their annual caps, they issue fewer nominations, which means fewer PNP candidates end up in the Express Entry pool. By the time draws occur, there aren’t enough eligible candidates to support larger rounds.
In short, while IRCC isn’t actively restricting invitations during PNP draws, the smaller draw sizes are a direct consequence of its earlier decision to limit provincial nomination caps. This trend is likely to continue through the rest of the year.
The PNP route may still remain a smart and strategic pathway to permanent residence in 2025, but whether it’s the right choice for you depends heavily on your individual profile. Unlike past years, PNPs are now for the few, not for the many.
Competition to secure a provincial nomination has become increasingly steep. Provinces have limited nomination allocations, and many have stricter selection criteria, prioritizing candidates with specific work experience, in-demand occupations, strong language skills, or existing ties to the province.
This means that even highly qualified candidates may find themselves ineligible for certain provincial streams or facing long waits in expression of interest (EOI) pools.
In short, while a provincial nomination can be a powerful tool for boosting your CRS score and securing an ITA, it’s important to understand the individual requirements of each province, stay alert to program openings, especially as provinces continue to refine their immigration priorities throughout 2025.
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If you’re not familiar with Canada’s Express Entry system, it’s an application management system used to manage economic immigrants to Canada. The benefits of the Express Entry system are that it offers streamlined application timelines for people who are ranked highly and invited to apply for permanent residence. After you receive an invitation and submit your application, it usually takes IRCC around 6 months to make a decision.
With that in mind, the Provincial Nominee Program is a program that’s offered at the provincial level but then managed and approved at the federal level. Some PNPs require you to be eligible for Express Entry, so they can be inter-related, but there are also PNPs that allow you to immigrate even if you don’t qualify for Express Entry.
Learn more about Canada’s PNPs via our PNP Tracker, which comes with a range of tools, including a stream finder.
Canada Abroad is a transparent Canadian immigration consultancy with advice you can trust. Led by Deanne Acres-Lans (RCIC #508363), the team delivers professional, regulated, and efficient service.
Led by Anthony Doherty (RCIC #510956) and Cassandra Fultz (#514356), the Doherty Fultz team uses their 40+ years of experience to empower you towards settling in Canada.
Led by Jenny Perez (RCIC #423103), Perez McKenzie Immigration is a Canadian immigration consultancy based in British Columbia, with offices in Vancouver and Whistler.
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