Newcomers Should Expect Longer Immigration Processing Timelines in 2025

Current IRCC Backlogs 

IRCC periodically provides updates about its immigration processing backlogs. Over the past few years, the very high numbers of applications in the IRCC backlog has made news headlines more than once.  

The most recent update from IRCC shows that there are more than 2 million applications waiting to be processed, and over 1 million of those are outside of the service standards (ie. They have taken longer to be processed than the timeline IRCC is required to strive for, as outlined in this government document.)  

What A Reduced Workforce Means For IRCC Processing Times 

With fewer workers processing applications, it seems likely that those applying for temporary and permanent residence and Canadian citizenship will face longer waits. 

Based on the backlog information IRCC has published, it seems that many Citizenship applications and permanent residence applications are currently falling within the service standards. So, most applications are processed within the 180 day period specified for many economic PR applications and 12 months for citizenship.  

However, temporary resident applications are not faring as well, with over 54% of applications currently in a backlog – and that’s with current staffing levels.

Source: IRCC Immigration Backlog 

We predict that temporary resident processing timelines will continue to get longer after IRCC reduces its workforce. We think, unfortunately, that permanent resident applications and citizenship applications will take priority. Certain in-demand temporary resident applications are also likely to be processed more quickly, including applications under the Global Talent Stream.  

How Soon Will The Backlog Increase?  

This isn’t clear, based on what we know today. We know that IRCC will reduce its workforce size by around 25%, starting mid-February. However, the changes are expected to happen gradually over the next three years.  

So, we expect to see a gradual increase in processing timelines over this period, as opposed to a massive increase all at once.  

The backlog increase may also vary based on where the cuts happen. For example, if IRCC reduces the number of staff outside of Canada, then applications outside Canada will likely be subject to much longer waits. This could also be regional, and based on political relationships between Canada and the other country. For instance, Canada may maintain higher levels of staff processing applications from outside Canada made in the US compared to, say Australia, due to current political tensions.  

How Much Longer Will Newcomers Have to Wait for an Immigration Decision?   

This is where things are very unclear.  

Given that Canada’s immigration targets have also been significantly reduced, it’s possible that interest in living in Canada will reduce and fewer applications will be submitted. This would mean that the impact on processing delays might be fairly minor.  

There’s also potential for IRCC to introduce further automations that reduce the amount of time it takes for immigration officers to process applications, which would further limit the potential delays.  

That being said, the current backlog is significant. And with rising volumes of refugee claims, plus challenges with transitioning to permanent residence, it’s possible that recent changes will actually increase the number of applications IRCC receives. For example, temporary work permits based on an LMIA are now only valid for 1 year, which means those who can’t become permanent residents yet will possibly need to apply for a further LMIA and temporary work permit every year, instead of every other year. This would increase the number of temporary applications in the backlog. We may even find ourselves in the absurd situation where workers might be on maintained status for longer than the work permit validity would have been.  

What to do if You’re Affected by a Backlog?  

Unfortunately, your options are very limited if you’re impacted by a backlog. It’s not possible to apply for (or pay for) priority processing.  

As a result, it’s more important than ever to be proactive and prepared. We strongly suggest that you apply for your new work permit or permanent residence as soon as you are eligible. Don’t procrastinate or wait until it’s closer to the date your existing work permit expires, as these delays are likely to increase uncertainty and stress.  

We also suggest keeping an eye on processing times for your potential immigration pathways. It’s important that you stay informed and on top of any changes in immigration processing or policy.  

We also suggest creating a free Moving2Canada account and working your way through your immigration checklist. These checklists are tailored to your individual program and unique circumstances, and they’re truly a valuable resource. We’re able to bring them to you for free thanks to funding from the Canadian government and our commercial partners.