Canada Grabs The Reins On Immigration, But At Whose Expense?

Why? Well, at a media briefing today the federal government accused the provinces of not providing enough data on their needs.

First, a quick primer. The Provincial Nominee Program, or PNP, started in Manitoba in the late 1990s. The fundamental concept was that the folks in Winnipeg knew better than bureaucrats more than 2,000 kilometres away in Ottawa about what kind of immigrants Manitoba needed.

It worked. Other provinces joined in. And while there were bumps in the road and varying levels of immigrant retention, it grew. In fact it grew to such an extent that when Canada outlined its 2023-2025 immigration plan just a year ago, the PNP had the highest target levels of any program — even higher than the federal government’s own flagship Express Entry system (117,500 vs 120,000 for 2025).

But while Canada’s overall permanent immigration levels will take a hit of between 21 and 27 percent across the board over three years in the revised plan announced this week, it’s the PNP and other regional programs that will take the biggest hit of all — around 50 percent.

As Cat Stevens wrote and Rod Stewart sang, when it comes to immigration policy Canada’s federal government is telling the provinces — the first cut is the deepest.

Instead of annual targets of between 110,000 and 120,000, the plan now is to hold the PNP steady at 55,000 admissions per year.

Further, the Atlantic Immigration Pilot — previously championed as a great success story — is being reined in from 8,500 annual slots to 5,000.

So if overall immigration is down no more than 27 percent, but down 50 percent in certain high-volume categories, does that mean smaller cuts to other programs?

In fact, it means no cuts in some cases, and even increases.

Let’s look at Express Entry, for example (reminder: that’s the federal system). When you compare the original plan for 2025 against the new plan, Express Entry slots will actually hold pretty steady or even increase. The feds have now carved out an ‘In-Canada Focus’ stream within the economic streams. In-Canada Focus will be ‘primarily admissions from the Canadian Experience Class’ (their words, not mine). The CEC is an Express Entry program.

In-Canada Focus will have between 70,930 and 82,980 slots annually, though the government is giving itself a pretty wide annual target either side of those numbers, especially on the lower end.

Then you have what is now being termed ‘Federal Economic Priorities’. When you look under the hood this is primarily category-based selection through Express Entry (side note: the feds are now staking out a goal to have up to 10 percent of PR admissions outside Quebec be French speakers, and Federal Economic Priorities appears the most likely vehicle to satisfy that goal).

There will be between 41,700 and 47,800 slots annually for this stream, with some wiggle room either side.

The sum of In-Canada Focus and Federal Economic Priorities — that is to say, for Express Entry in the round — adds up to around 125,000 target admissions annually (though again the caveat that the target is wider than usual).

And the previous target? 117,500.

The story here is not only that the government of Canada is cutting immigration, but also that it is wresting control of economic immigration back to Ottawa and away from provincial and regional powers.

It’s worth noting that Canada’s Immigration Minister, Marc Miller, has a — ahem — combative style when it comes to federal-provincial relations. In a recent press conference ostensibly called to outline cuts to temporary immigration pathways, Miller called some provincial premiers (heads of government) a word in French that people variously translate as either “idiots” or “knuckleheads”. This was in response to a question on asylum policy.

It just so happens that provincial premiers typically also ask for more immigration slots for the PNP. Alberta’s Dannielle Smith, for example, recently asked for more PNP slots — as in, more than the original quota, not the now-slashed quota.

And while it’s too much conjecture to suggest that the Minister allowed his opinion of provincial counterparts to influence federal policy, provincial governments are unlikely to be happy with the exact opposite of what they requested for the PNP. It’s safe to say that Marc Miller will not be on many premiers’ Christmas card list.

So, why did the feds go after the PNP? Well, in announcing the revised targets Minister Miller stated during a media briefing that the federal government needs provinces to come forward and tell Ottawa what their needs are, heavily implying that the federal government has not been receiving this information as a key input to guide policy.

“Adjustments will be made to our economic immigration streams to prioritize that transition of workers already here [in Canada] and focus on the labour, and be responsive to the labour market needs,” said Miller, flanked by Liberal Party colleagues.

“For that we need provinces to move forward and come forward with their data and tell us their needs. The federal government has an understanding of what those needs are — it is a sophisticated one, but it isn’t the only voice in this, and provinces have a responsibility to come to us and tell us what those needs are.”

Either way, Express Entry is very much alive and kicking.