Only 1 in 5 Newcomers Work in Their Intended Field in Canada. Those Who Do Earn 49 Percent More.

The findings point to a persistent gap between the skills newcomers bring to Canada and the jobs they eventually hold. The StatCan study examined occupational outcomes for newcomers admitted between 2010 and 2020. The sample included more than 568,000 people aged 18 to 54 at the time of admission. 

Key Takeaways 

• Only 1 in 5 newcomers admitted from 2010 to 2020 was working in their intended specific occupation by 2021. 

• Newcomers who worked in their intended major occupational group earned a median of $65,600, compared to $44,000 for those who didn’t. 

• Canadian work experience before permanent residence was the strongest factor linked to occupational match. 

• Newcomers without prior Canadian work experience were about 24 percentage points more likely to move into a lower-skilled role. 

Most Newcomers Don’t End Up in Their Intended Occupation

The study found that occupational match at the specific occupation level was 20 percent in 2021, meaning about one in five newcomers worked in their intended field.  

Match rates were higher at broader occupational levels. About 27 percent worked in the same minor group and 32 percent in the same major group. 

Some fields held up much better than others. At the specific occupation level, registered nurses had the highest match rate at 44.8 percent, followed by software engineers and designers at 36.6 percent, and information systems analysts and consultants at 33.5 percent.  

Computer and information systems professionals were the most likely (66.5 percent) to remain within their minor group. 46.2 percent of other nursing professionals also stayed in closely related occupations. 

At the major group level, professional occupations in natural and applied sciences had the highest match rate at 57 percent, followed by occupations in business and finance at 31.4 percent, and occupations in education services at 29.4 percent.

The Earnings Gap is Sharpest for Highly Educated Newcomers 

The income difference between newcomers who worked in their intended field (major group) and those who didn’t was consistent across nearly every group in the study. Overall, newcomers who worked in their intended occupation earned a median of $65,600, compared to $44,000 for those who didn’t, a gap of over 49 percent. 

Income difference also grew larger with education level. Among newcomers with a graduate degree, those who matched their intended occupation earned $77,600, compared to $49,600 for those who didn’t. This is a gap of about 57 percent. For those with a bachelor’s degree, the gap was $22,800, or roughly 51 percent. In contrast, recent newcomers with only a high school diploma who worked in their intended major group and those who didn’t had an income difference of around 25 percent. 

This shows that immigrants with a higher level of education may experience greater earnings losses when their skills are not fully used. 

Earnings Gap by Immigration Class  

The immigration stream a newcomer came through also shaped their earnings outcomes. Among Federal Skilled Worker Program newcomers, those who matched their intended occupation earned a median of $71,800, compared to $48,000 for those who didn’t (49.6 percent difference). For Canadian Experience Class (CEC) newcomers, the gap ran from $56,300 for those who didn’t match to $78,200 for those who did (38.9 percent). 

Newcomers who immigrated under Family Class and found jobs within their major occupational group earned a median of $55,400 and those who worked in other roles earned a median income of $34,400. This 60.6 percent income gap was the highest among all immigration classes. 

Income Difference by Source Country 

Median income for those who worked in their intended occupation and those who didn’t showed the widest variation based on source country.  

Newcomers from Iran who worked in their intended occupation earned a median of $69,700, nearly double the $36,600 earned by those who didn’t, a gap of about 90 percent. For newcomers from Pakistan, the gap was 74 percent, and for those from China, 74 percent as well.  

Newcomers from the Philippines showed the smallest earnings gap between those who matched with their intended major group and those who didn’t, at about 18 percent. The study notes this likely reflects the fact that a large share of Filipino newcomers intended to work in lower-skilled occupations to begin with, meaning the earnings ceiling for matched workers was lower overall. 

Prior Canadian Work Experience is the Strongest Predictor of Job Match 

Of all the factors the study examined, Canadian work experience before permanent residence had the largest effect on whether newcomers ended up in their intended field. 

Newcomers with prior Canadian work experience had match rates 10 percentage points higher at the specific occupation level and 12 percentage points higher at the major group level, compared to those without it. 

That advantage carried through to downward mobility as well. Newcomers without prior Canadian work experience were about 24 percentage points more likely to move to a lower-skilled occupationin their specific occupation or minor group than those who had worked in Canada before getting permanent residence. 

Canadian Experience Class newcomers had the highest occupational match rates among economic immigration categories, at 26.8 percent at the specific occupation level and 41.8 percent at the major group level. After accounting for Canadian work experience, however, the difference between CEC and Federal Skilled Worker Program newcomers narrowed considerably. This suggests that thework experience itself was the key factor, not the pathway. 

Who Faces the Highest Risk of Downward Mobility 

Among newcomers who didn’t work in their intended occupation, between 42 percent moved to a lower-skilled job within the same NOC and 49 percent moved to a lower-skilled job within the major occupational group. 

Beyond work experience, the study found several other characteristics linked to a higher likelihood of moving into a lower-skilled role after admission. 

Older newcomers, particularly those admitted between the ages of 35 and 54, were more likely to move to lower-skilled jobs than younger arrivals when they didn’t end up in their intended occupation. 

Language profile at admission made a clear difference. Newcomers who arrived knowing only French were the most likely group to move into a lower-skilled occupation among those who didn’t match their intended field. Those who arrived with no knowledge of either official language also faced a significantly higher likelihood of downward mobility. 

Women were also more likely than men to move to lower-skilled roles. With children at home, the odds of women not working in their intended occupation were approximately twice those of men. 

Source country also played a role. Newcomers from the United States had a specific-occupation match rate of 37 percent. Those from the Philippines and China had match rates of 17.3 percent each, while newcomers from Pakistan came in at 17.9 percent. The study found that immigrants from more developed source countries consistently had higher match rates, even after accounting for other characteristics. 

What These Findings Mean 

The findings reinforce the value of previous Canadian work experience pathways, which appear to improve occupational alignment and reduce the risk of downward mobility.  

The study also notes that immigration selection strategies targeting specific intended occupations may be less effective if match rates in those occupations are low. However, keep in mind that the study is based on 2010 to 2021 data. Since then, the economy, immigration programs, and targets have changed significantly. 

For newcomers researching their options of moving to Canada, it is a good idea to look beyond program eligibility and researching occupational match rates for your field. If possible, you may also want to research other occupations within your minor and major group and expand your job search.