Immigration Minister says she wants to track why temporary residents leave Canada

Not having this information poses difficulties for IRCC as it seeks to meet the lower temporary resident targets in the Immigration Levels Plan. It’s tricky to know if the department is working with accurate data. 

IRCC relies on the Canada Border Services Agency to keep track of who is leaving. In an article by the Canadian Press, we learn that the CBSA can track who is leaving, their method of transportation, their birthday, and their travel documents, but it is unable to tell whether they are leaving Canada because their visa or permit has expired.  

CBSA’s ability to collect this data has an impact on IRCC. The two departments work closely together to share information. Without CBSA data on the number of non-permanent residents (those on a study permit, work permit, or visitor visa) leaving Canada because of an expired permit, IRCC can’t accurately measure the overall NPR population. 

Key Takeaways  

• Canada’s immigration minister wants to know who is leaving Canada due to an expired permit 

• There is no timeline for when IRCC will be able to have this data 

• Not knowing who is leaving, and why, means IRCC can’t accurately measure the number of temporary residents in Canada 

What Would Tracking Mean for Temporary Residents?  

IRCC’s ability to track who is leaving because of an expired permit will have little to no impact on temporary residents. Whether it is actively tracked or not, it’s up to you to make sure you apply to remain in status or leave Canada when your permit or visa expires, of face future consequences of being non-compliant.  

The department recommends that anyone who wants to apply to stay in Canada do so at least 30 days before their permit expires.   

Further, a system to track who is leaving Canada because of an expired visa or permit isn’t on the immediate horizon. Diab has said that she doesn’t want to modernize the system too quickly because any mistakes could cause a “big problem for immigration.”  

Why does IRCC want to track who is leaving?  

Canada experienced a surge in immigration from 2021 to 2024. As a result, IRCC faced pressure from Canadians due to the strain that rapid population growth placed on the housing market and social services such as healthcare.  

In response, the department introduced the first yearly targets for temporary residents in the 2025 Immigration Levels Plan. At the time, the goal of these targets was to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada to 5% of the total population by the end of 2026. With the latest levels plan for 2026, this goal was revised to less that 5% but the end of 2027. 

While 5% may not seem like much, that means just 2,082,582 people in Canada will be here as temporary residents. IRCC has just two years to cut the population by more than a million people.   

There are 1.9 million temporary resident visas set to expire before the end of the year. Without knowing if temporary residents are leaving Canada for good at the end of their work or study permit or visitor visa, IRCC can’t tell if they are hitting the levels plan goal.  

Still, the efforts made to reach these targets are starting to have an impact. The latest data from IRCC shows that more than 305,000 Students and Workers arrived in Canada last year, less than half the 673,000 target outlined in the Immigration Levels Plan for 2025.  

How does IRCC track who is leaving now?  

Right now, IRCC relies on Statistics Canada for some data on the number of Non-Permanent Residents (NPRs) in the country.    

Statistics Canada uses IRCC data, demographic modelling, and statistical adjustments to estimate the number of temporary residents in Canada at any given time. However, it doesn’t keep track NPRs who leave Canada or why.  

Statistics Canada mostly relies on IRCC data showing the number of temporary residents who become permanent residents, tax filings from the Canada Revenue Agency and the Census, which is now five years old. 

IRCC’s Digital Modernization Plan 

As part of announcing the desire to start tracking those who leave Canada, Diab reiterated the importance of modernizing the immigration system. As a result of IRCC’s digital modernization plan, Diab said that the department is stepping up its efforts to modernize. For example, a tracking tool now exists for:   

• sponsorship of a spouse, partner or dependent child, or you’re being sponsored as one  

• Express entry  

• a study permit  

• a work permit  

• a visitor visa (temporary resident visa)  

 Using these tools, applicants can now check the status of their application online, and IRCC now offers tailored processing time estimates for most types of applications. 

Still, these efforts are client-facing and geared to make the user experience more friendly for applicants. They don’t actually provide IRCC with additional information. 

 To really modernize the whole system, IRCC will have to go into its operational processes to get a more accurate picture of Canada’s temporary resident population. This is the second phase of IRCC’s Digital Modernization Platform. It aims to implement back-end processing that includes: 

• A new case management platform; 

• Business rules management; 

• Advanced analytics tools that support officers in complex decision-making; and 

• Reporting and inventory management tools. 

IRCC hopes to have these changes in place by the end of 2027 but is already running a bit behind schedule. So, it could be a few years yet before IRCC has the information it needs to know the true number of temporary residents in Canada. 

Keep up to date with IRCC’s modernization efforts by joining the Moving2Canada community.