But while the headline numbers suggest a dramatic pullback, many of the adjustments reflect trends already underway, not entirely new restrictions. So let’s explore what the levels really mean for the admission of temporary residents. 

The Temporary Residents Targets for 2025 

Shifting Targets and a Moving Goalpost 

IRCC has revised its benchmark for the temporary resident population. The 5% target, originally set for the end of 2026, has now been pushed to the end of 2027. The updated language adds a degree of uncertainty, Canada now aims to keep the temporary population at “less than 5%” of the total. Exactly how much less remains undefined. 

There’s also been ongoing ambiguity around how these figures are calculated. However, with the release of the latest Immigration Levels Plan, IRCC has indirectly signaled that the data source is Statistics Canada, a detail we’ll unpack further in a future piece. 

According to Statistics Canada, as of Q3 2025, there were 3,024,216 non-permanent residents in Canada. With the country’s total population at 41,651,653, temporary residents currently account for about 7.2% of the population, still a long way from the government’s newly defined-ish target. 

International Students Take the Biggest Hit 

At first glance, international students appear to be taking the hardest hit. The government’s new target sets study permit admissions at 155,000 in 2026, about half of last year’s notional goal of 305,900. On paper, that looks like a dramatic pullback. 

But in reality, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Recent data shows that new international student arrivals have already fallen significantly compared to 2024, meaning this lower target may not represent a new cut so much as a reflection of what’s already happening. The federal government seems to be formalizing an adjustment that’s been unfolding for months rather than imposing a sudden new reduction. 

In other words, while the optics look harsh, the practical impact may be less severe than it first appears. The plan still points to a period of continued restraint, but it also signals a move toward stabilization after a year of heavy recalibration in the international student system. 

We break down what this means for future study permit applicants, schools, and graduates in our full analysis. 

Temporary Workers

For temporary foreign workers, the outlook is uneven. While overall allocations are lower than 2025, they’re higher than what was projected for 2026 in last year’s plan. It’s a small boost within a broader context of restraint, suggesting Canada is still trying to balance labour market needs with political and social pressures to limit temporary migration. 

The International Mobility Program’s Murky Numbers 

At first glance, it looks like the International Mobility Program (IMP) has taken a big hit, dropping from 285,750 in 2025 to 170,000 in 2026. But the picture gets a lot murkier once you dig into the details. 

All Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWPs) are now excluded from these figures. IRCC classifies them as extensions or status changes, rather than new arrivals. However, how PGWPs were treated in previous plans remains unclear. These permits can be issued both inside and outside Canada, and that distinction matters. If a graduate applies from within Canada, that’s clearly an extension of stay. But if they’re outside the country and receive approval to return on a PGWP, that looks much more like a new arrival, and should be considered such.  

That inconsistency leaves a data gap, making it difficult to tell whether we’re looking at a genuine drop in IMP admissions or simply a change in how they’re being measured. 

Adding to the nuance, 2025 data shows that from January to August, there were 111,200 new arrivals under the IMP (based on new permits issued). If that pace continues, Canada will finish the year just shy of 170,000, almost exactly matching the new 2026 target. In other words, for the IMP, 2026 looks set to be business as usual, not a dramatic cut. 

Finally, there’s a structural change coming. Employer compliance for the IMP will move from IRCC to Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), the same department that oversees compliance for the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). It’s a move that signals tighter alignment between the two streams and potentially more consistent enforcement across temporary work programs. 

Temporary Foreign Worker Program: A Gradual Pullback 

After a turbulent year and growing criticism of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP), IRCC is scaling things back. Allocations are set to fall from 82,000 in 2025 to 60,000 in 2026, with further reductions to 50,000 in both 2027 and 2028. Despite mounting pressure from public figures to phase out the program altogether, the government seems to be taking a more cautious approach, opting for a gradual pullback rather than a sudden cut. 

Data from January to August 2025 shows 43,315 new arrivals under the TFWP, putting Canada on track for roughly 65,000 by year’s end. That means the expected 2026 target represents only a modest decline, one that may barely be felt in practice. In short, the TFWP is tightening, but not dramatically, at least not yet. 

A New Pathway for H-1B Holders 

While not explicitly listed in the levels plan, Budget 2025 includes a commitment to develop an accelerated pathway for H-1B visa holders. Details are scarce, and it’s unclear whether this will be a temporary or permanent measure. If it follows the pattern of the 2023 H-1B initiative, it will likely fall under the temporary resident category. 

We cover this proposed new pathway for H-1B Holders here.  

The budget also sets aside funding for a one-time recruitment initiative, aiming to bring over 1,000 highly qualified international researchers to Canada. 

Canada’s temporary resident landscape is shifting, but not collapsing. Be sure to sign up for our newsletter to receive the latest updates and analysis on temporary levels as well as new programs as they’re released.