The Future Of Express Entry: EE and The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan

Broadly speaking, Canada’s economic immigration will decrease by 30% compared to what earlier Immigration Levels Plans stated. In the 2024-2026 Plan, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada had announced plans to bring in 301,250 economic immigrants in 2025. This has decreased to 232,150 for 2025 under the latest release. But, the Provincial Nominee Program bore the brunt of the reduction. Meanwhile, there is a target of 82,980 for In-Canada Express Entry candidates, which will largely be met through the Canadian Experience Class.

“More than 40% of anticipated permanent resident admissions in 2025 will be from those who are already in Canada as temporary residents.” – IRCC Immigration Levels Plan

What Would Have Been: A Comparison of The 2024 Levels To The Proposed 2025 To 2027 Levels

On its face, things don’t look promising for Express Entry (which is an economic immigration program). 

In the 2024-2026 Plan, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada had announced plans to bring in 301,250 economic immigrants in 2025. This has decreased to 232,150 for 2025 under the latest release.  A decrease of almost 30%. 

But when you dig into the numbers, you can see that a significant portion of the decrease is from the Provincial Nominee Program, which saw a decrease from 120,000 planned admissions to just 55,000. 

Express Entry Admissions Higher In 2025-2027 Levels Plan

Digging further, you find the good news for those hoping to transition from temporary to permanent residence – the In-Canada allocation and Economic Priorities allocation. 

So, in the superseded 2024-2026 Levels Plan, we saw a target of 117,500 for ‘Federal High Skilled’ admissions in both 2025 and 2026. 

In the 2025-2027 Plan, we have targets of 82,980 for the In-Canada Focus (including CEC) and 41,700 for ‘Federal Economic Priorities’ (targeted draws for French, healthcare, and trades). This is an allocation of 124,680 in total – which is actually higher than previously announced levels. And in the case of the In-Canada Focus, the planned levels are actually higher than the number of admissions through Canadian Experience Class in 2023 and 2024 (based on data so far). Which means we will likely see more invitations going out to candidates with work experience in Canada in 2025 than we saw in 2024 and 2023. 

“We will likely see more invitations going out to candidates with work experience in Canada in 2025.”

What Does The ‘In Canada Focus’ Mean?

For the first time, the immigration levels plan includes an In-Canada Focus, designed to facilitate transition to permanent residence for those who are already in Canada as students and workers. Applicants in the Express Entry pool under the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program will be the primary source to fill the 82,980 spots allocated to this category. 

“For the first time, the immigration levels plan includes an In-Canada Focus, designed to facilitate transition to permanent residence for those who are already in Canada as students and workers.”

Given the average CEC applicant is single (based on the information we have) if the majority of the 82,980 spots were to go to CEC applicants, this would demonstrate a huge increase in the number of CEC applicants who receive an Invitations to Apply (ITA), when considering that previously CEC applicants received only ⅓ of all ITAs in 2024 (around 40,000).

Prediction: An allocation for the Semi-Skilled Workers Pathway 

Regional Immigration Pathways have also been quoted as a source of admissions under the In-Canada focus category. So, the In-Canada focus may include the TEER 4 and TEER 5 (Semi-Skilled Worker) Pathway Program first announced in August 2024, but not yet active. 

This program, if it comes into effect, would be a welcome addition for those semi-skilled workers who may not receive a Provincial nomination in 2025. PNPs have historically been a pathway favoured by temporary residents who do not have a high enough CRS to receive an invitation through Express Entry. 

A Change In Category-Based Selection

There are 41,700 spots up for grabs under the Federal Economic Priorities category of the plan. Although there has been no official change to the categories targeted in category-based selection draws, the levels plan states that the 2025 priority categories include: 

• Health care occupations, 
• Trade occupations, and 
• French-language proficiency.  

Therefore there is reason to believe that only these three categories will be targeted and STEM, Transport and Agriculture and agri-food occupations will be dropped in 2025.

How will the 41,700 spots be distributed?

Looking at 2024 draws so far (to the end of October 2024), there have been 32,225 ITAs have been issued under these categories: 

• French- language applicants received 63.3% of these ITAs – or 20,400 invitations. 
• Healthcare applicants received 22.5% – or 7,200 invitations.
• Trade applicants received 14.2% – or 4,575 invitations. 

If we apply these same percentages to the 41,700 spaces available for 2025, then: 

• French-language applicants could receive 26,396 of these spots in 2025. 
• Healthcare applicants could see 9,383 spots; and 
• Trade applicants may receive 5,921 spots. 

In other words, it’s likely that we may continue to see category-based draws at the same intervals we’ve seen this year. Irregular trades and healthcare draws, plus around one French draw each month, with a high possibility of at least one very large French draw. 

A Note About STEM, Agriculture, and Transport Draws

IRCC has not announced that it will remove these occupations from its official categories. So, it’s not impossible that we will see targeted draws for these categories in 2025 and 2026. However, it is likely that the allocations will be smaller IF we do see draws for these categories. At the moment, we would suggest considering whether your CRS is likely to be high enough for you to qualify under a Canadian Experience Class draw and, if not, taking steps to improve it. 

Express Entry Draws for French Speakers in 2025

IRCC announced an overall target of 29,325 for French-speaking permanent resident admissions outside Quebec in 2025.

Around 5,500 will come to Canada via the Rural Community Immigration Pilot and the Francophone Community Immigration Pilot which has a separate quota to the Federal Economic Priorities and In-Canada Focus efforts. So, there are still 25,000 more French-speaking Permanent Residents to be sourced from other immigration programs, likely the Federal Economic Priorities. 

As we outlined above, French-speakers may receive around 26,396 ITAs via category-based draws in 2025, so this aligns with the government’s target range.

Learning French, while difficult, is a very strong tactic for anyone looking to immigrate to Canada as a permanent resident. You can learn more about how French can help you immigrate to Canada. 

What Does This Mean For Those Waiting For A General/ All-Program Draw?

Although the immigration levels plan is good news for those in Canada, it is not so good for applicants waiting for a general or all program Express Entry draw. The quota under the In-Canada focus category is clearly for applicants who are currently living in Canada (and working as a temporary resident) and the quota under the Federal Economic Priorities will be distributed through category-based selection draws. 

Unfortunately, this does not give much room for general/all programs draws. If we do see any general/all program draws in 2025, there will likely be a very limited number of applicants selected.

If There Are More Spots Available, Will The CRS Score Decrease? 

It is fair to conclude that as a result of the increased quota, we can expect the CRS cut off to decrease in 2025. However, there are factors that could offset any downward trend and actually lead to sustained or even higher CRS thresholds within the CEC pool specifically.

First of all, Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) quotas have been slashed significantly for the 2025 to 2027 period. With fewer PNP options, competition among CEC applicants will rise, which will naturally increase the CRS score within this group. 

Canada welcomed a record number of International Students between 2022 and 2024. Over the next few years, these students will start graduating and gaining Canadian work experience, again resulting in higher competition within the CEC pool.  

Overall, the Immigration levels plan reinforces the government’s trust in the Express Entry system to source applicants with the necessary skills to contribute to the Canadian economy. Whilst the details of the levels may be disappointing to some, it offers clarity on how the government intends to use the Express Entry pool to fill the economic allocation. This, in turn, gives would-be applicants something to work towards to strengthen their application. For others, namely temporary residents in Canada, the immigration levels plan should be reassuring in that the Canadian government has a genuine intent and plan to transition more to PR status. 

We are looking forward to seeing what 2025 has in store for the Express Entry system.