Canada’s 2026 Immigration Targets: What IRCC Projected Back in 2024

In that three-year plan, the 2025 targets were firm, while the projections for 2026 (and 2027) were notional, meaning they will be confirmed or adjusted by November 1, 2025, when the government sets the concrete 2026 targets based on evolving conditions. 

With the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which will confirm the actual target for 2026, expected any day now, we thought it would be useful to look back at what IRCC projected for 2026 when the 2025 plan was announced in October 2024, a snapshot of how Canada’s immigration outlook looked at that time. 

This also gives us a chance to weigh in on whether those projections are likely to stick, and to set a baseline for comparison once the new numbers drop. So, let’s jump in. 

Temporary Residents: A Push to Reduce Overall Numbers 

For the first time, the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan included targets for temporary residents, a key move as Canada works to rein in rapid growth in this category. The federal government made it clear that by the end of 2026, its objective is to reduce the temporary resident population to around 5 percent of Canada’s total population. 

Planned 2026 numbers: 2026 Temporary Resident Targets

Where we stand today: 

According to the latest figures from IRCC, there are currently 2,280,763 temporary workers and students in Canada. With Canada’s total population now sitting at 41,651,653 (Statistics Canada, September 2025), five percent would equal roughly 2,082,582 people. This means Canada is still almost 200,000 temporary residents above its stated target, highlighting why Ottawa is likely to maintain tighter controls on temporary streams in the year ahead. 

The notional targets for 2026 represent a year-over-year decrease of more than 150,000 compared to 2025. Considering temporary residents remain above the 5% target, and public criticism of temporary residents continues to grow, IRCC is likely to keep 2026 targets low to manage population growth and ease system pressures.  

Permanent Residents: 2026 at a Glance 

On the permanent side, the notional target for 2026 was set at 380,000 new permanent residents, within a range of 352,000 to 416,000. That is slightly lower than the confirmed 2025 target of 395,000, signaling a planned slowdown after several years of record-high immigration. 

For this article, we are focusing specifically on three key streams within the Economic Class — Federal Economic Priorities, In-Canada Focus, and the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). Together, they make up the majority of planned economic admissions and illustrate how Ottawa is trying to balance national labour priorities with provincial and regional needs. 

Economic Class Focus Streams (2026 Targets) 

Federal Economic Priorities

The Federal Economic Priorities stream, which includes programs managed through Express Entry, continues to drive high-skilled immigration. With a notional target of 47,400 for 2026, up from 41,700 in 2025, this category has shown early signs of renewed growth and broader diversity compared to 2025 activity. 

If recent IRCC activities, such as their social media updates and annual public consultation, are any indication, the department may reopen or expand category-based draws to include all six occupational categories, including STEM workers. This would mark a shift from 2025, when draws focused mainly on French, healthcare, trades, and education. This broader approach would justify a higher 2026 quota and reflects IRCC’s intent to better align immigration selection with evolving labour market needs. 

In- Canada Focus

The In-Canada Focus stream, which supports transitions from temporary to permanent status, is a difficult one — and it tends to trigger strong reactions. Because of that, we won’t make any bold predictions here. The notional target for 2026 is 75,830, down from 82,980 in 2025. 

Many temporary residents hoping to transition may argue that it’s unrealistic for IRCC to reduce this number any further. So far in 2025, only 21,850 Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates have received an Express Entry invitation — and that doesn’t include those who may have been invited under category-based draws. 

At the same time, government data shows that from January to July 2025, more than 123,000 former temporary residents became permanent residents. So while the CEC draws might not reflect it directly, in-Canada transitions are clearly happening — just through a mix of other pathways. 

In short, IRCC is already ahead of pace in converting temporary residents to permanent status under its 2025 plan. That makes it difficult to imagine an increase to the 2026 target of 75,830. At best, the department may hold the figure close to the current notional target. 

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

The Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) remains a cornerstone of Canada’s economic immigration system, giving provinces and territories the ability to select newcomers who meet local labour market needs. The 2026 notional target sits at 55,000, the same as in 2025, but there are growing signs that this figure could rise once the new levels plan is released. 

Given these upward adjustments of allocations this year, we could see around a 30% increase in the 2026 PNP national quota. If applied to the current total of 55,000 nominations, that would bring next year’s quota to roughly 71,500.  

That said, according to the new IRCC processing time tracker, there are currently more than 100,000 PNP applicants waiting at the federal level for their applications to be finalized. IRCC may choose to keep PNP volumes lower to allow time for processing these existing files – especially since PNP applications enjoy around a 95% approval rating. 

We expect the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan to drop any day now. Join our newsletter community of over 165,000 readers to get the latest updates, data-driven insights, and expert analysis, straight to your inbox as soon as the new plan is released. 

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