Key Takeaways

• While there will no longer be a dedicated in-Canada or priority focus, this doesn’t mean in-Canada applicants or category-based draws are being abandoned. Instead, IRCC appears to be shifting toward a more flexible approach.

• 2026 marks the renewed prominence of the Provincial Nominee Program, with 91,500 spaces allocated to provinces

• While program-level information remains limited, we do know that up to 33,000 work-permit holders will benefit from a one-time measure aimed at accelerating their transition to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027.

• International student allocations are down 50% compared to last year’s notional 2026 target, continuing the trend of tightening entry for temporary residents as Ottawa seeks to balance housing and institutional capacity.

• Despite the Carney government’s goal of reaching 12% French-speaking permanent residents by 2029, the target for 2026 has been reduced from 9.5% to 9%, suggesting this objective may be taking a temporary back seat to broader system realignment.

How Many Immigrants Will Canada Welcome? 

Following the approach introduced in last year’s plan, IRCC has once again included both permanent and temporary resident targets for 2026, and we now have a complete breakdown of how these will be distributed.   

In total, the plan outlines targets for 380,000 permanent residents and 385,000 temporary residents in 2026. We’ll break these down here.  

Permanent Resident Admissions Plan 

Here is a breakdown of the 2026- 2028 immigration levels plan for permanent residents: 

Key takeaways from the Permanent Resident Admissions Plan

An end to In-Canada Focus and Federal Economic Priorities

The In-Canada Focus as well as the Federal Economic Priorities did not make it onto the latest immigration levels plan. Instead, IRCC reverted to its old ways of lumping them within the umbrella of Federal High Skilled, which includes applicants in the Express Entry pool under the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class (CEC) immigration programs.

Why has the In-Canada target been removed?

There have been questions on the effectiveness of the in-Canada focus after a disappointing year for CEC applicants in the Express Entry report. But that is not to say that the in-Canada focus was a flop. According to IRCC data, almost 140,000 temporary residents transitioned to permanent residence from January 2025 to August 2025. Rather than maintaining a defined in-Canada focus, IRCC may have opted for greater flexibility by reverting to the broader Federal High Skilled category.

Does it also mean an end to categories?

No, the removal of the Federal Economic Priorities does not mean IRCC will abandon category-based draws. For reasons outlined above, it likely made more sense for them to retain greater flexibility by having these initiatives under the same umbrella rather than separate.

In 2025, the combined In-Canada Focus and Federal Economic Priorities streams were allocated 124,680 spaces. In 2026, their replacement, the Federal High Skilled category, has been allocated 109,000 spaces, marking a slight overall drop in available spots.

The Return of the Provincial Nominee Programs

For those disappointed by the changes above, there’s some good news: the allocation for PNPs has increased from a notional target of 55,000 to an actual target of 91,500 for 2026, with further increases planned for 2027 and 2028.

The latest IRCC data shows nearly 110,000 PNP applications in the backlog—enough to easily meet next year’s quota if processed in time.

We’re still waiting on a breakdown of how these spots will be distributed across provinces.

French!

While the targets for the Overall French-speaking Permanent Resident Admissions outside Quebec have taken a slight hit, over 30,000 spaces have been allocated for French speakers.

The Rise of One-Time Measures!

2026 is the year of one-time measures, so if you thought that mapping out your best immigration options was complicated enough, it is about to get more so.

Work Permit Accelerated Program

The immigration levels plan commits to accelerating the transition of up to 33,000 work-permit holders to permanent residency in 2026 and 2027. It’s not yet clear which allocation these spaces will come from, but based on the current distribution of economic categories, it’s likely they’ll fall under the Federal High Skilled stream. This would suggest that successful applicants may need to qualify through the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, or Canadian Experience Class, though for now, that remains speculation. IRCC also hints that this will benefit those working in rural areas, but the levels plan does not comment on this.

Protected Persons in Canada

Protected Persons in Canada who are already on a pathway to permanent residence will also benefit from a one-time measure to streamline the transition for 115,000 applicants over a two-year period. However, since the immigration levels plan allocates only 49,300 spaces for 2026 and a notional target of 49,300 for 2027, it remains unclear where these additional spaces will come from.

Temporary Resident Admissions Plan 

This is where things get a little dicey, temporary resident levels. The total target is 385,000 for 2026, down from 516,600, which was the notional target set last year. This decline is expected to continue, reaching 370,000 in both 2027 and 2028. Those feeling the biggest impact? International students. 

Here’s a breakdown of the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan for temporary residents: 

Key takeaways from the Temporary Resident Admissions Plan

The goalpost has shifted. The 5% temporary population target now applies to the end of 2027, whereas last year it was set for the end of 2026. And with this update, IRCC has added a layer of ambiguity; it’s now described as “less than 5%”, but exactly how much less remains unclear.

International Students

Students have taken the hardest hit, with spaces dropping to 155,000 this year, down sharply from the 305,900 notional 2026 target set last year. This number is expected to continue declining through 2027 and 2028, reflecting the government’s continued tighter control over study permits.

Workers

As for workers, there was an overall decrease in allocations compared to 2025, but an increase compared to the notional targets set for 2026.

International Mobility Program

The international mobility program is a hard nut to crack. On the face of it, the allocation went from 285,750 in 2025 to 170,000 in 2026, but all is not as it seems

Post-Graduation Work Permits (PGWP) are not included in the new targets. As IRCC explicitly notes, they’re treated as an extension or change of status rather than new arrivals. Compared to the 2025 levels plan, it’s unclear whether all types of PGWPs were previously counted, since they can be issued both inside and outside Canada, making it difficult to tell whether this represents a real decrease in IMP spaces or simply a shift in what’s being measured.

Temporary Foreign Worker Program

Listen Up H-1B Holders

Although not listed specifically in the immigration levels section, Budget 2025 commits to creating an accelerated pathway for H-1B visa holders. It’s not yet clear whether this will be a permanent or temporary program, but based on the previous H-1B initiative, it will likely fall under the temporary resident program.

In addition to this, Budget 2025 proposes a one-time initiative to recruit over 1,000 highly qualified international researchers to Canada.

According to the Annex to Budget 2025, there’s also a structural change on the way. Employer compliance for the IMP will be transferred from IRCC to Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), which already oversees compliance for the TFWP.

How does this differ from the notional targets released in 2024?  

Now, let’s look at how the actual targets compared to the notional 2026 targets released in October 2024.

Permanent Residence Targets: Actual vs Notional

We can see that the economic class is getting a larger share overall, though it’s still unclear how this will break down by specific program. What we do know is that 33,000 spaces over 2026 and 2027 are being set aside for in-Canada work-permit holders transitioning to permanent residency.

The family class sees a slight decrease, while Refugees, Protected Persons, and Humanitarian categories have now been bundled together, representing a net decline compared to last year’s notional targets.

Interestingly, the French-speaking permanent resident target outside Quebec has been reduced from 9.5% to 9%, despite the Carney government’s stated goal of reaching 12% by 2029,  suggesting that French language objectives may take a temporary back seat to broader structural adjustments in the system.

Temporary Residence Targets: Actual vs Notional

When comparing the notional and actual 2026 targets, the most striking shift is seen among international students. Their allocation has dropped from 305,900 in the notional plan to 150,000 in the confirmed 2026 target-  a reduction of more than 50%. There could be several reasons for this decline, but one likely factor is the high refusal rate, which means the government couldn’t meet the reduced 2025 quota. According to the latest data, there were 89,485 new study arrivals between January and August 2025. Although this figure doesn’t include all student permit types, it still represents a massive year-over-year decrease in arrivals.

By contrast, worker allocations have increased, rising from 210,700 in the notional plan to 230,000 in the finalized version. At the program level, the distribution has shifted, with spaces increasing under the International Mobility Program and decreasing under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program.