2026 Set to Be the Year Many Will Fail

If this may impact you, we also wanted to note early in this piece that we know failure can be an uncomfortable word. It implies individual shortcomings, poor planning, or bad decisions. But the scale of temporary work permits expiring this year means that failure, in this case, is not personal failure but planned failure. A system deliberately narrowing pathways at scale, to induce a mass exodus from Canada. 

Mass Wave of Status Expiry

Between January and March 2026 alone, 314,538 work permits are set to expire. The vast majority of these permits are held under the International Mobility Program (IMP), including Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) holders and Spousal Open Work Permit (SOWP) holders. 

The holders of these permits are Canadian graduates, skilled workers, caregivers, and spouses already integrated into Canadian workplaces and communities. And this is only the beginning. 

Thanks to the ATIP data shared by Kanwar Sierah, we know that as of July 11, 2024, more than 1.18 million work permits are due to expire in 2026 and 2027. It is important to note that this data represents the data as of July 2024, and does not account for any permits issued or extended after that date. The ATIP process moves slowly at IRCC, so unfortunately, we rarely get up-to-date data in response to ATIP requests.  

As a result, while the Q1 2026 figures are already staggering and record breaking, they are likely conservative. The final number of work permits expiring during this period is almost certainly higher. 

The Data Doesn’t Show Who Succeeds or Who Doesn’t 

While these numbers are high, they don’t tell us who successfully transitions to permanent residence. They don’t show how many people leave Canada voluntarily, how many are forced out, or how many drift into precarious status while trying to remain in the country. 

It’s also important to acknowledge that not every work permit holder intends to remain in Canada permanently. For many, a temporary stay was always the plan, and choosing to leave does not represent failure. However, for a significant number of people, remaining in Canada is the goal. For that group, being forced to leave could be seen as a failure.  

While definitions of “failure” may vary and absolute conclusions are hard to come by, what the data does make clear is scale. The scale at which applicants may fail is unlike anything Canada has seen before. With tighter regulations, stricter processing, and intensifying competition for a shrinking number of permanent residence spaces, failure is no longer an anomaly, but could become the norm. This is not because applicants are suddenly less qualified, but because the system no longer has the capacity, or the intention, to help them succeed in 2026. 

This Is Not an Accident 

The data referenced in Kanwar Sierah’s ATIP request, is from July 2024, predating the release of the updated 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan. That timing matters. 

Why? Because the revised plan introduced a clear and deliberate policy change, reducing the non-permanent resident share of the population to less than 5% by 2027 (the goal was to 5% by the end of 2026) This shift was intentional and engineered. 

Viewed through that lens, the scale of upcoming permits set to expire is not coincidental. It is foundational to achieving the target itself. 

In practical terms, the system anticipates, and requires, a significant number of temporary residents to fail and leave Canada in order to meet its stated objectives. 

What This Means for Temporary Residents Caught in a Failing System.  

Canada does not want or need every temporary resident in Canada to succeed in 2026. To meet population, housing, and political targets, IRCC needs many temporary residents to fail and leave Canada.  

Because of this, for temporary residents, 2026 demands equal parts realism, optimism and perseverance. Planning must assume failure as a possibility, not an exception.  

Applicants will need to be at the top of their game. Proactive, strategic, and fully aware of the narrowing pathways. Exploring all legitimate options to extend status will no longer be optional; it will be essential for anyone hoping to remain in Canada. 

Enough with The Bad 

Even if IRCC uses 2026 as a major reset for Canadian immigration, failing in 2026 does not mean you have failed in your goal of immigrating to Canada. 

Failure, in this context, may simply mean being unable to extend a work permit and needing to return home. That outcome, while difficult, does not automatically mark the end of a Canadian immigration journey. 

In fact, many applicants are already choosing to leave Canada strategically to gain foreign work experience. For some, this can increase Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) points under Express Entry to strengthen their standing in the system. This option will not apply to everyone, but it does show that an outcome that feels negative in the moment can still be used productively. 

Likewise, 2026 may be the year some applicants succeed where they would have failed in 2025. Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs) are expected to be more active in 2026, with allocated spaces increasing by more than 65% from 2025 to 2026. This means applicants who previously had no viable pathway may find new opportunities opening at the provincial level. 

There’s also the reality that the Canadian economy still relies heavily on foreign workers, and on immigration more broadly. There is only so much the workforce can shrink before industry stakeholders begin to feel the impact, and start speaking up. When labour shortages begin to affect the bottom line, the conversation tends to change. That kind of pressure, and the media attention that follows, has been known to shift policy direction quickly. 

Does that mean temporary residents should give up all hope? No. But it does mean the rose-coloured glasses need to come off, if they haven’t already. Saying the system now relies on people failing isn’t me putting this idea out into the universe, it’s already reality. What matters is recognising this as a growing concern, understanding whether you’re likely to be impacted, and planning for it. 

This isn’t meant to create pessimism, it’s meant to invoke power. For anyone navigating Canada’s immigration system in 2026, being informed about both the good and the bad is no longer optional, it’s required. As the saying goes, hope for the best, but plan for the worst.