2026 USMCA Review: The end of TN visas and CUSMA work permits?

In recent weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump has been privately considering quitting the free trade deal, which was signed into effect in 2020.

Although the majority of the USMCA – or CUSMA, as it’s referred to in Canada – deals with the flow of goods and services between the three North American countries, a chapter of the agreement affects immigrant workers.

The USMCA permits professionals in specific occupations to work in the other countries. In the United States, Canadian workers are granted TN visas or TN status, while in Canada, American workers are granted CUSMA work permits through the International Mobility Program (these are exempt from the LMIA requirement).

With the United States threatening to scrap the USMCA in its entirety, many of these immigrant workers are left wondering what will happen to their work permits if the USMCA is dismantled? And – how likely is it that the U.S. President would scrap the agreement in full? Could the TN visa be saved through a separate program?

In this article, we break down the latest in the 2026 USMCA negotiations and the impact this could have on TN visas and CUSMA work permits.

What is the USMCA / CUSMA?

The United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA; referred to as CUSMA in Canada) is a free trade agreement regulating trade between these three countries. In 2020, the USMCA replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) which came into effect in 1994.

Since the implementation of NAFTA, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico have become a deeply integrated trading bloc. Most tariffs were eliminated for trade between the three countries, resulting in massive trade growth and integrated supply chains across the bloc.

In 2020, NAFTA was replaced by the USMCA, which shared much of the original trade agreement, but included key modernizations. The USMCA is subject to a formal review in July, 2026.

How does the USMCA impact immigrants?

One chapter of the USMCA, Chapter 16, defines special immigration rules for the flow of workers between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico. Specifically, the USMCA permits citizens of the participating countries to obtain work authorization in the other countries provided they have a job offer in an eligible profession. Only these occupations are eligible:

When a Canadian citizen uses the USMCA to work in the U.S., they are granted TN status or a TN visa. When an American citizen uses the USMCA to work in Canada, they are granted a CUSMA work permit. For full details on the eligibility requirements for USMCA work permits, please refer to our complete guide.

There are approximately 50,000 Canadians working in the United States on TN status, providing the U.S. with workers in engineering, healthcare, and other occupations. According to the data from Open Canada, only 2,800 USMCA work permit holders were in Canada at the end of 2024. However, at its peak, more than 20,000 Americans actively lived in Canada on NAFTA work permits.

Why is the 2026 USMCA negotiation so contentious?

The 2026 USMCA review is shaping up to be contentious due to the increasing trade tensions within the North American trading bloc.

In 2025, shortly after his inauguration, U.S. President Donald Trump began threatening to use “economic force” to annex Canada, turning the sovereign nation into the 51^st state. Shortly thereafter, Trump launched a trade war with Canada, imposing steep sectoral tariffs on key Canadian exports, including auto parts, steel, aluminum, and softwood lumber.

Canada is also subject to a general U.S. tariff on all Canadian exports. However, goods that are compliant with the USMCA are exempt from this tariff – and approximately 90 percent of Canadian goods are USMCA compliant. If the U.S. withdrew from the USMCA and left general tariffs in place on Canadian exports, this would send shockwaves through the Canadian economy – which sends more than 70 percent of its total exports to the U.S.

In April 2025, Canadians elected a new Prime Minister, Mark Carney, with a mandate to deal with the unpredictable U.S. President. Carney, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, has spent the past year strengthening trade relationships with other nations around the world, in an attempt to diversify Canadian exports and build leverage for the upcoming USMCA review.

In the United States, Trump’s steep tariffs have kept the price of many goods stubbornly high, frustrating many Americans who elected Trump on his promise to lower prices. With Trump’s approval rating dropping and the midterm elections coming in November 2026, Trump may be hesitant to tear up the USMCA – which would increase prices in the U.S. as many Canadian and Mexican imports would suddenly be subject to tariffs.

This is the complicated environment within which the 2026 USMCA review and negotiation will be taking place. The results could have lasting impacts on the Canadian economy – and on any citizens taking advantage of the USMCA’s immigration rules.

2026 USMCA Negotiation: Possible outcomes for TN visas / CUSMA work permits

The USMCA requires mandatory review by July 1, 2026. Canada, the U.S., and Mexico have already been discussing the future of their trading bloc. It’s expected that these talks will intensify as the July deadline approaches. The outcome, however, remains highly uncertain. Both Canada and Mexico are eager to maintain the USMCA, but the United States may have other plans.

U.S. President Donald Trump has privately mused about pulling out of the USMCA, but it is impossible to predict what Trump will actually do.

With increased uncertainty, it’s always smart to consider a backup plan for your immigration. Are you eligible to apply for permanent residence? If so, it would be a good time to get started. Are you eligible for another type of work permit? No need to apply now, but it can help to plan out your options so you’re ready, if needed. Plan for the worst, hope for the best!

Based on our analysis, these are the four most likely scenarios for the 2026 USMCA negotiation – plus, the potential impacts for TN visas and USMCA work permits.

Possibility #1 – Trump pulls out of the USMCA entirely (highest disruption)

The USMCA includes a withdrawal clause which allows any party to withdraw from the agreement at any time by providing six months’ written notice. It is possible that Trump could invoke the withdrawal clause – although this nuclear option would have dramatic impacts on the North American economy.

For TN visa and USMCA work permit holders, the implications of a complete USMCA withdrawal could be substantial. If the USMCA ends, it will be up to each country to decide what to do with USMCA workers. It’s possible that individual nations could create new immigration programs to continue supporting the professionals previously covered by the USMCA, allowing existing workers to continue working and new workers to apply.

If countries were not to replace the USMCA immigration options with something new, then no new applicants would be accepted once the USMCA expires. In this case, the countries would likely allow existing TN visa and USMCA work permit holders to continue working up to the end of their status – as it is a bureaucratic and legal headache to terminate immigration statuses partway through their validity. However, if he were feeling particularly vindictive, President Trump could attempt to terminate all TN visas, effective immediately.

How likely is this?

Trump has many reasons to preserve the USMCA in some form or another. Despite his tough talk on trade and tariffs, the tariff-exempt flow of goods between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, results in lower prices on many goods. Terminating the USMCA in its entirety would increase the costs of those goods, with price increases like being passed onto the U.S. consumer.

It is also advantageous for the U.S. to maintain the immigration status quo of the USMCA. The TN visa program provides more benefit to the U.S. than Canada. With approximately 50,000 Canadians working the U.S. on TN status and only 2,800 Americans working in Canada on USMCA work permits, the USMCA contributes to the infamous “brain drain,” drawing talented workers from Canada into the U.S. workforce. The U.S. has strong incentives to maintain this status quo, but with Donald Trump, sometimes the most logical policy is not the one he opts for.

Possibility #2 – A straightforward renewal takes place in 2026 (low disruption)

This scenario assumes a straightforward and relatively friendly USMCA renewal takes place in 2026. In this scenario, we assume that Donald Trump and the U.S. trade representatives do not pressure Canada and Mexico to make substantial changes to the agreement and most provisions continue along unchanged.

During the original USMCA negotiation – transforming from NAFTA – the NAFTA chapter on immigration was left almost entirely unchanged, suggesting that this was not a point of focus for any party. The TN visa program has not been highlighted by the U.S. administration as an area of interest for trade talks, suggesting it is not a contentious area.

For these reasons, it’s likely that a straightforward USMCA renewal would leave the TN visa and USMCA work permit programs in place. Although, these programs could be subject to small changes (for example, the eligible occupations list could be updated).

Possibility #3 – A contentious renegotiation takes place in 2026 (high disruption)

In this scenario, President Trump could use a variety of tactics to put pressure on Canada and Mexico to significantly change the USMCA, demanding changes to rules for auto parts, the dairy industry, steel & aluminum, and more.

In this scenario, the impacts on immigration are unclear. As mentioned above, the immigration chapter of the USMCA has never been caught in the crosshairs of the Trump Administration – not in his first term during the original NAFTA renegotiation, nor during the trade wars of his second term. For this reason, it is possible that the immigration provisions of the USMCA could continue to fly under the radar, remaining relatively unchanged, even amidst a contentious renegotiation. However, it is also possible that the Trump Administration could choose to target the section with substantial changes.

Possibility #4 – Countries cannot reach consensus, but the agreement continues (medium disruption)

If the countries cannot reach a consensus on a USMCA extension, but no party formally withdraws, the agreement remains in effect until 2036 but is subject to an annual review. In this case, we remain on this merry-go-round of uncertainty. The USMCA could be targeted for changes – or threats of withdrawal – at any moment.

This would leave immigrant workers in a state of instability. It would also have negative impacts on investment in the North American trading bloc – something that Canadian trade representatives are trying their hardest to avoid.

In Summary: What to do now as a TN visa or CUSMA work permit holder

At this time, TN visa holders and USMCA work permit holders should simply sit tight and wait to see the other side of the negotiation. If eligible for a U.S. green card or Canadian permanent residence, workers may proactively apply, just to be safe. But – in most of the scenarios outlined above, impacts on immigration are more likely to be minimal than highly disruptive.

If the immigration component of the USMCA undergoes significant changes, current visa holders will likely be given time to determine their next steps. Even if the agreement is ended or an occupation is removed from the list – and that’s a big “if” – it’s likely workers will at least have until the end of their TN status / work permit to make their next move.

Our team will continue tracking any potential changes to the USMCA and will update our readers as soon as new information becomes available.

Uncertainty around visas and work permits can also mean gaps in your health coverage. Whether you’re working in the U.S. on a TN visa or in Canada on a CUSMA permit, having the right insurance matters.

Get peace of mind with flexible international health insurance from Cigna Healthcare. Explore your options and get a free quote today.

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