Canada Sees Major Drop in Asylum Claims, but July Surge Signals New Challenges

Overall, the first half of 2025 has seen steep drops in claims at airports, between ports of entry, and from temporary resident visa holders, a sign that Canada’s efforts to streamline its asylum system have largely succeeded. 

However, the latest data from July 2025 points to a new and unexpected trend, with claims at official ports of entry spiking sharply, especially in Quebec, highlighting how external factors can quickly reshape migration flows despite domestic policy successes. 

July 2025 Asylum Claim Figures 

The July data highlights both progress and emerging challenges: 

• Overall asylum claims have fallen by 34% year-to-date, dropping from 105,925 in 2024 to 69,810 in 2025. 
• Within this total, claims at official ports of entry fell sharply from 40,820 to 22,195, while claims made inside Canada declined from 65,085 to 47,615. 

Yet, despite these gains, July 2025 recorded a record-high number of asylum claims at official ports of entry, with Quebec leading the surge. Analysts attribute this to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations.

Policy Efforts Behind the Decline 

Three major interventions explain the 34% drop in total asylum claims so far in 2025: 

• Partial Visa Requirement for Mexican Nationals: Introduced in early 2024, leading to a 97% reduction in claims at airports almost immediately. 
• Additional Protocol to the Safe Third Country Agreement: Closed a loophole for asylum seekers crossing between ports of entry, reducing claims by over 90%. 
• Heightened Scrutiny of Temporary Resident Visa Applications: Resulted in a 65% drop in claims from TRV holders by July 2025 compared to the same month in 2024. 

Together, these measures sharply reduced total asylum claims across all major entry points in Canada. 

Immigration Levels and the Asylum Process 

Under the 2025 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada plans to admit 20,000 individuals under the Protected Persons in Canada and Dependents Abroad category. 

So far in 2025, there have been 69,810 total asylum claims. However, not all of these claims will move forward to a full hearing or be approved. The process involves several steps before someone can become a protected person and eventually apply for permanent residence. 

High-Level Overview of the Asylum Process 

• Claim Made: Individuals make an asylum claim upon arriving in Canada or from within the country. 

• Eligibility Assessment: Officials first determine if the claim is eligible to be referred to the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada (IRB). 

• IRB Hearing: If eligible, the IRB assesses the case to determine if there is a well-founded fear of persecution or face a risk of serious harm—such as torture, cruel and unusual treatment, or punishment 

• IRB Decision: 

• • Accepted: The claimant becomes a protected person and may apply for permanent residence under the Protected Persons in Canada category. 
  • Refused: The claimant may be subject to removal from Canada after all appeals are exhausted. 

Canada’s asylum system in 2025 is clearly in transition. We’ve seen a 34% drop in claims so far this year, thanks to new policies and tighter controls, but the July spike at official border points shows how quickly things can change when outside factors come into play. 

We expect this data will be updated every month, and we’ll be keeping an eye on the August numbers to see whether this July surge was a one-off or the start of a new trend.