What You Should Know About Canada’s First Temporary Immigration Levels Plan

And, while we’ve seen announcements showing how the government plans to reduce the number of temporary residents in Canada, in many ways, we are yet to feel the full impact of these changes. 

“The reality is that not everyone who wants to come to Canada will be able to—just like not everyone who wants to stay in Canada will be able to. We are taking action to strengthen our temporary residence programs and roll out a more comprehensive immigration plan to meet the demands of today’s changing landscape. Our immigration system must preserve its integrity, and be well managed and sustainable. And as we look forward, we will do everything it takes to achieve that goal and set newcomers up for success.” – The Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship

Background: Why Did Canada Introduce A Levels Plans for Temporary Residents?

In March 2024, Canada announced that it would be setting targets for temporary residents in its Immigration Levels Plan for 2025-2027. This is the first time the Canadian government has set targets for temporary residents, with previous iterations of the levels plan setting targets for permanent residents only. 

The reason for this change is that Canada’s government has changed its strategy for temporary residents, and now hopes to reduce the volume of temporary residents in Canada to equal 5% of the total population. These changes will likely result in the Canadian population decreasing through 2025 and 2026, before slightly rising again in 2027. The federal government hopes that this change will help to stabilize the demand for healthcare and housing in Canada, while also improving conditions for workers in Canada and reducing fraud and poor working conditions in the temporary worker program. 

Importantly, these changes aren’t to ‘punish’ newcomers. It is because the levels of immigration have been historically high in recent years, and the current government deems the levels unsustainable given the housing and healthcare shortages Canada is currently experiencing. Canada’s job market is also cooling, and unemployment levels have been consistently rising throughout 2024. So adding more workers to the pool would likely impact unemployment rates throughout 2025, increasing reliance on government benefits. 

Temporary Resident Levels Plan 2025-2027

Here’s what the Immigration Levels Plan 2025-2027 contains regarding temporary resident targets:

From the table above, you’ll note that these figures mark a drastic reduction in temporary resident levels for 2025-2027, compared to 2022 and 2023. The International Mobility Program (IMP) will be heavily reduced by more than 60% compared to 2023. We have analysed the likely consequences for PGWPs and IEC participants below (both of which are heavily used IMPs). 

You can see our earlier discussion about changes to the Intra-company transfer program for further context about these reductions. 

How Will The Levels Plan Impact International Students? 

International student levels will decrease significantly. There were 682,889 study permit holders admitted in 2023, and by the end of Q3 in 2024, we’ve seen around 374,000 study permits issued. 

The 2025 target will be a more than 50% reduction from 2023 numbers (which the federal government has called ‘overheated’) – at 305,900. Unfortunately, it’s also a reduction on the numbers for 2024, which will likely mean additional delays for international students submitting applications in 2025. 

What About Graduating Students Looking To Receive A PGWP?

The Immigration Levels Plan also confirms that there is likely to be a significant decrease in the number of Post-Graduate Work Permits issued in the coming years. The PGWPs fall under the International Mobility Program, which will see a more than 63% decrease compared to 2023 figures – decreasing to 285,750. It’s widely expected that the PGWP and Spousal Open Work Permit reductions will make up a significant portion of this decrease. 

• Learn more about the changes coming to PGWPs here.

The ripple effect of this change is most likely to be felt in Ontario. In 2023, the number of PGWPs and Spousal Open Work Permits issued to international students and their spouses was 173,760. This is more than 50% of the overall target for 2025 – and that’s for just two programs in Ontario. Admissions under all programs in Ontario totalled 325,855 in 2023, just to put these changes in context. 

How Will The Levels Plan Impact IEC Participation in 2025? 

The Immigration Levels Plan does not mention the IEC program directly. However, the International Experience Canada program falls under the International Mobility Program, which is going to see drastic cuts in 2025, 2026, and 2027 based on the recent Immigration Levels Plan. In fact, the changes proposed would result in 63% fewer admissions in 2025 compared to 2023 and at least 50% fewer than 2024 (the figures for this year aren’t yet finalized). 

So, the big question is: Are we going to see decreased targets for the IEC program in 2025?

At this point, we don’t know. It is possible that IEC won’t be as hard hit as other programs, such as the Spousal Open Work Permit and Post-Graduation Work Permit, which we know will see very significant reductions in 2025. 

But it is unlikely that the IEC quotas will be completely unaffected. The reality is that the target for the International Mobility Program for 2025 is just 285,750. It isn’t likely that IEC can issue almost 125,000 invitations or maintain a quota of 90,000 for 2025. 

How Will The Levels Plan Impact Temporary Workers With An LMIA? 

Canada plans to bring in 82,000 people through the temporary foreign worker program each year from 2025-2027. This is a decrease of over 50% from 2023 levels, where 184,008 individuals were issued work permits through the TFWP.

We have already seen a number of announcements for changes that impact which companies will be eligible for an LMIA, including a 10% cap on employers hiring temporary foreign workers in the low-wage stream and a 20%-above median requirement introduced for the high-wage stream. 

We dug into the figures for 2023 and 2022 to see which countries would be hardest hit by these changes, and it seems that the following countries saw the most TFW permits in Canada across these two years: 

• Guatemala
• India
• Jamaica
• Mexico
• Philippines.

Each of the countries listed above had more than 20,000 TFW permits approved in 2023. So, even if only applicants from these countries were considered, the target for 2025 would not be sufficient for the volume of applicants. 

In other words, while it’s likely the impact of a ~100,000 reduction in the number of temporary foreign worker permit approvals will be felt by anyone hoping to move to Canada as a TFW, applicants from these countries may feel the squeeze more acutely.