Our predictions for Canada’s 2027 to 2029 Immigration Levels Plan

While we wait, we’ve decided to share what our team thinks will happen tomorrow. We wanted to make it clear that it’s a particularly tricky year to make predictions. Public sentiment towards immigration is improving. At the same time, Canada looks set to welcome fewer permanent residents than planned in 2026. New temporary resident arrivals may also fall short of their targets. Without a clear explanation from the government, it’s hard to know what comes next. 

Before we dive in, please remember that these are our team’s predictions, not confirmed changes. We expect confirmation about the government’s plans tomorrow when the new levels are released.  

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Key takeaways 

• Our team is split on permanent residence targets. Some expect little change, while others predict a small increase to around 400,000. 

• Several team members expect any increase to focus on economic immigration, especially the Provincial Nominee Program. 

• Most expect Canada to keep its existing 2027 temporary resident targets: 220,000 new workers and 150,000 new students. 

Permanent residence targets could hold steady or edge upwards 

Sugandha expects a roughly five percent increase in the overall PR target, bringing it close to 400,000. She expects almost all of that increase to go to federal high skilled immigration and provincial nominees. 

Dane agrees. His main prediction is a small PR increase focused on economic immigration, with temporary resident targets staying as planned. 

Rebecca is less convinced that PR targets will rise. Freya also expects the overall target to stay about the same, though she thinks provincial nominees could get a small increase. 

Stephanie expects a slight rise in the overall PR target, with more places for economic immigration, including the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP). 

Economic immigration is the category to watch 

The total PR target is only part of the story. How Canada divides those places matters too. 

The existing plan sets a 2027 economic immigration target of 244,700. That includes 111,000 places for federal high skilled immigration and 92,500 for provincial nominees. We’ll be looking for any increases beyond those figures. 

See the 2026 targets. 

Several team members expect economic immigration to remain a priority, even if the overall PR target changes very little. 

For Express Entry candidates, more places could be welcome news. But a higher target would not guarantee more invitations right away or lower cut-off scores. 

Temporary resident targets may stay put or face another small cut 

Sugandha, Rebecca, Dane and Freya all expect the government to retain the previously announced 2027 targets of 220,000 new workers and 150,000 new students. 

Those figures are lower than the 2026 targets, but align with the notional target that the government outlined in the 2026-2028 levels plan. In other words, the cut was already built into last year’s plan. 

Stephanie expects a small further cut, bringing the combined 2027 target below the planned 370,000. She points to continued population growth and the work still needed to meet Canada’s goal for its temporary resident population. There’s also still some dissent in the public about the temporary worker program (though the data says this is largely misplaced).  

These arrival targets cover new students and workers, and those applying for new permits. They are not a count of everyone with temporary status in Canada with existing valid permits. 

Family immigration could avoid its planned reduction 

Stephanie expects (or hopes, rather) that family immigration targets will remain at their 2026 level of 84,000, rather than falling to the provisional 81,000 set for 2027. Sugandha agrees with this, and notes that she doesn’t expect to see any changes to the Parents and Grandparents Program quota.  

Could there be a bigger surprise?

Dane also floated a more ambitious scenario: a roughly ten percent reduction in temporary resident targets alongside a roughly ten percent PR increase, bringing permanent residence admissions to around 420,000.  

He offered that as a speculative possibility, rather than his main forecast. It illustrates how much room there is for tomorrow’s announcement to surprise us. 

Stephanie also wondered whether there’s potential for the government to overhaul the language in the Levels Plan to reflect the new programs for Express Entry that are expected to drop in 2027. We saw some of this language used in the high-wage occupation points releases, so it’s possible that more will be debuted in the levels plan (though we aren’t holding our breath on this one).  

Get the news when the plan drops 

Our entire team is ready to go tomorrow to report on the Immigration Levels Plans, including the published permanent and temporary targets for 2027. We’ll be covering what the numbers are and what they mean for anyone who is hoping to make Canada their home in the coming years.  

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