2027–2029 Francophone Immigration Targets: How Many French-Language Express Entry ITAs Will Canada Issue?

Currently, IRCC’s main lever for hitting those targets is Express Entry. So how many French-Language Express Entry ITAs do we expect in 2027?

We predict that we may see 44,000 French-language Express Entry invitations in 2027, with the range most likely falling between 38,000 and 57,000, assuming current trends hold.

Key Numbers at a Glance

• 2027 target for Francophone admissions outside Quebec: 31,825
• 2027 forecast: about 44,000 French-category ITAs (80% range roughly 16,000–57,000; central range 38,000–57,000)
• Chance 2027 French ITAs exceed the 31,825 admissions target: about 80%
• Likely cadence: 9 to 11 French draws of 4,000 to 5,000 invitations each
• 2026 so far: 60,500 French ITAs across 12 draws (to October 27), about 41% of all Express Entry invitations

French Immigration Targets for 2027–2029

Canada’s new 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan sets the following targets for French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec:

The 2027 target is a slight increase over the 9% target for 2026. That said, it remains unchanged from the notional target set out for 2027 in the previous Immigration Levels Plan.

These targets apply to all French-speaking permanent residents admitted outside Quebec. This includes those who immigrate through Express Entry and other permanent residence pathways.

Has Canada Been Meeting Its Francophone Immigration Targets?

Francophone admissions grew 20% in 2023 and 56% in 2024, then fell 3% in 2025 (30,550 to 29,650).

Canada still beat its 2025 target, but only because total admissions outside Quebec shrank, which pushed the share up to 8.9%.

2026 is Running Behind Pace

IRCC admitted 16,500 French-speaking permanent residents outside Quebec from January to August 2026. That is about 2,060 a month.

At that pace, 2026 would end with approximately 24,750 admissions. Reaching 30,150 requires about 3,400 a month from September to December.

IRCC may still hit this goal, especially given the large number of French ITAs issued in the last six months. It is also possible that a large pipeline of applications may carry over into 2027.

French-Language Express Entry Invitations Have Increased Significantly

While francophone admissions have stalled near 30,000 a year, French-language Express Entry invitations have climbed steeply.

From January and October 2026, IRCC issued 60,500 invitations across 12 French-language draws. This already exceeds the 48,000 invitations issued throughout 2025.

French-language draws have become IRCC’s largest category, and the department has repeatedly described Express Entry as its main tool for the francophone target.

Why Are French Invitations Much Higher Than Admissions Targets?

One thing that stands out in the numbers above is that IRCC is inviting more than twice as many French speakers as it plans to admit. If you’re wondering why, here are a few reasons.

First, it takes time for an invitation to become a landing: 60 days to apply, then about six months of processing. So, admissions in any given year mostly come from invitations issued in the second half of the previous year and the first half of the current year.

Second, the refusal rate for Express Entry applications is rising. In the first six months of 2026, 56% of Federal Skilled Worker (FSW) and Federal Skilled Trades (FST) applications were refused, up from 33% in 2025. The overall Express Entry refusal rate also increased to 31.5%. While the data does not identify refusal rates specifically for French-language draw candidates, higher refusal rates mean fewer invitations result in permanent residence admissions.

Plus, not every French-category invitee counts as francophone.

IRCC counts someone as French-speaking only if French is their sole official language, or their dominant one if they are bilingual. A bilingual candidate whose stronger language is English can be invited through a French draw but not count toward the target.

How Many French-Language Express Entry Invitations Will Canada Issue in 2027?

We predict IRCC may issue 44,000 French-language Express Entry invitations in 2027. The range will most likely fall between 38,000 and 57,000, assuming current trends hold.

If you want to know how we arrived at that number, stay with us. But fair warning, it’s going to get technical.

How we ran the numbers

We used three datasets: IRCC’s francophone admissions figures, French-category Express Entry draw results, and the targets in each Immigration Levels Plan.

We then asked Claude to model likely scenarios based on historical data and future forecasts.

We forecast 2027 French-category ITAs three different ways. Each method looks at the question differently:

1. Share x volume:This method asks: if Express Entry runs at its usual scale, and French keeps its share, how many French ITAs will we see? It uses the 2027 Federal High Skilled admissions target of 100,000 and the share of Express Entry invitations going to French-speaking candidates in recent years.
2. Target multiplier:This method assumes IRCC keeps inviting a multiple of the target, as it has in recent years. Because candidates invited in late 2027 will likely become permanent residents in 2028, we used a blend of the 2027 and 2028 targets.
3. Pipeline need:This method asks what IRCC strictly needs to issue, after accounting for invitees already in the pipeline. It also accounts for French-speaking immigrants admitted through programs other than Express Entry. This produces the lowest forecast.

We then combined the three methods into one forecast, giving greater weight to A and B because they better reflect IRCC’s recent invitation patterns.

What the results tell us

The weighted forecast is about 44,000 French-category ITAs in 2027, with an 80% range of roughly 16,000 to 57,000.

Methods A and B, which reflect how IRCC has actually behaved, produce estimates ranging from 38,000 to 62,000. Method C, which estimates the minimum number of ITAs IRCC needs, sits far lower at 13,000 to 20,000.

The wide combined range comes from the gap between C and the other two methods.

The forecast hinges on one policy question. Will IRCC keep over-inviting, or size its 2027 draws to account for the 2026 invitees still in processing?

We think over-inviting is more likely, for three reasons:

• IRCC has invited well above target in both 2025 and 2026, even as conversion fell.
• Invitations issued in the second half of 2027 feed the 2028 target of 35,175.
• French-language draws have become IRCC’s largest category, and IRCC has repeatedly described Express Entry as its main tool for the francophone target.

In about 80% of simulated draws, 2027 French ITAs exceed the 31,825 admissions target.

What This Could Mean for French Category Draws

44,000 invitations works out to roughly 9 to 11 French draws of 4,000 to 5,000 each, similar to the 2026 pattern.

If the 2027 total falls toward the low estimate, expect fewer, smaller draws. This could also mean higher CRS cut-offs than the 382 to 435 range seen in 2026.

What Could Change the French ITA Forecast?

Several factors could push the number of French-language Express Entry invitations in 2027 higher or lower:

It could be higher if:

• 2026 finishes well short of the 30,150 target, and IRCC tries to make up by issuing more French ITAs in 2027.
• French remains the lead category for Express Entry in 2027. Priority categories are likely to be announced in February 2027.
• Refusal rates remain high.

It could be lower if:

• IRCC reduces the number of French ITAs to reflect the smaller Federal High Skilled admissions target of 100,000 in 2027, down from last year’s 109,000.
• More francophone candidates get permanent residence through provincial programs through the 5,000 reserved PNP spaces.
• IRCC has a large number of Francophone permanent residence applications in processing from 2026 to count towards its 2027 target.

What This Means for French-Speaking Express Entry Candidates

Canada’s higher Francophone immigration targets are good news if you qualify for French-language Express Entry draws.

Our forecast suggests that IRCC could continue holding large, frequent French-language draws in 2027, issuing around 44,000 invitations.

However, this is not guaranteed. IRCC may issue fewer invitations if it already has enough French-speaking candidates in the processing pipeline.

Fewer or smaller draws could also mean higher CRS cut-off scores, making it harder to receive an invitation. Plus, recent changes to CRS scores, including extra points for high-wage occupations, could also affect French draw scores.

That said, with relatively lower cut-offs and a higher number of ITAs expected, the outlook for French speakers remains encouraging compared to other candidates in the Express Entry pool.