Canada’s Immigration Plans to Have Less Than 1% Impact on School Enrolment by 2030: StatCan

The Statistics Canada study predicts that changes in immigration will likely have less than a one percent impact on school enrolment in every province and territory by 2030.

The report looks at low, medium and high immigration scenarios. It finds that the number of elementary school-aged children in Canada could decline over the next decade, even if immigration remains high.

The findings come just a week before the release of the 2027-2029 Immigration Levels Plan. Over the last three years, the government has lowered its immigration targets, partly in response to concerns about pressure on public services.

Key Takeaways

• Changes in immigration levels are projected to have less than a one percent impact on total school enrolment in every province and territory by 2030.
• Under a medium-immigration scenario, Canada’s elementary school-aged population could decline by approximately 197,000 between 2026 and 2035.
• Even under a high-immigration scenario, the elementary school-aged population is not expected to grow over the next decade.
• Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba could still see modest increases in immigrant student numbers.

How Will Immigration Affect Canadian School Enrolment by 2030?

The study examines children aged six to 13 (elementary school ages) and aged 14 to 17 (secondary school ages).

Using IRCC’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan and projections for the temporary resident population, the researchers estimated how student numbers could change through 2030.

At the elementary level, the number of children with permanent resident status is projected to increase by approximately 47,100 between 2026 and 2030.

However, the number of children with temporary resident status is expected to decline by approximately 49,200.

This produces a net decrease of just 2,100 elementary school-aged children attributable to changing immigration levels.

The pattern is similar at the secondary level:

• Permanent residents: An increase of approximately 25,500 children.
• Non-permanent residents: A decrease of approximately 24,300 children.
• Net change: An increase of approximately 1,200 children.

In 2025, Canada had approximately 3.5 million elementary school-aged children and 1.8 million secondary school-aged children. The changes are relatively small compared to overall enrolments.

The study concluded that changing immigration levels are unlikely to create significant additional demand for school spaces at the national level through 2030. Nor will they create extra capacity in schools on their own.

Could Canada’s School-Aged Population Decline by 2035?

The study also examines how Canada’s total school-aged population could change between 2026 and 2035. This includes both Canadian-born and immigrant children.

The report considered three scenarios based on different levels of permanent and temporary immigration.

The projections suggest that Canada’s school-aged population could decline over the next decade, particularly at the elementary level.

Which Provinces Will See the Biggest Changes in School Enrolment?

Although the national impact is expected to be small, the projections reveal important differences between provinces.

Between 2026 and 2030, the central provinces are projected to see the biggest increases compared with 2025. Here’s a snapshot:

• Alberta: An increase of approximately 5,710 children (0.8 percent) in overall school enrolment attributable to immigration.
• Saskatchewan: An increase of approximately 1,510 children (0.8 percent) in overall enrolment.
• Manitoba: An increase of approximately 1,380 children (0.6 percent) in overall enrolment.

Other provinces are expected to see smaller increases or declines.

Quebec is projected to have approximately 6,450 fewer immigrant children of elementary and secondary school age by 2030, while British Columbia could see a decrease of around 3,750.

Ontario is expected to see a modest net increase of approximately 1,450 immigrant children across the two age groups.

Despite these regional differences, projected impact on overall school enrolment is expected to remain below one percent in every province and territory.

Immigrant Children Account for a Smaller Share of Students Than Expected

Although permanent residents represented approximately 23 percent of Canada’s population in 2021, they accounted for a much smaller proportion of school-aged children.

According to the report, permanent residents represented:

• 8.4 percent of elementary school-aged children.
• 12.3 percent of secondary school-aged children.

This shows that the age profile of Canada’s immigrant population skews more towards adults than children.

The study also explains that as new immigrant children enter the school system, older ones graduate or move beyond secondary school age. So, if immigration levels remain relatively stable, these inflows and outflows can eventually balance each other.

Does This Mean Immigration Is No Longer Putting Pressure on Schools?

Stable or declining student numbers do not automatically mean schools have enough capacity.

Unfortunately, while some politicians try to pin the blame solely on immigration, capacity depends on many factors. Underfunding from the provincial government, teacher shortages, and aging infrastructure all put pressure on school systems.

That said, the impact of immigration can vary between communities. Schools in fast-growing neighbourhoods may still be overcrowded, even if enrolment across the province remains stable.

However, the study suggests that, unless the government’s long-term immigration targets change drastically, immigration is unlikely to significantly increase demand for school spaces across Canada through 2030.