Why Express Entry Draws Could Slow Down for the Rest of 2026

Express Entry started 2026 with the fastest invitation pace on record. By mid-May, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) had already issued more than 72,000 invitations to apply (ITAs) for permanent residence through Express Entry.

This aggressive pace had a pattern: every two weeks there would be a PNP draw, followed by a CEC draw, often followed by a category-based draw. That pattern has been relatively consistent throughout the year… until last week. When last week’s expected draws didn’t happen, concern started to spread across immigration forums and social media.

Our team at Moving2Canada keeps hearing one question repeated: Does this mean Express Entry is slowing down?

The answer? Not necessarily, but it is possible.  Based on all available data, IRCC does not need to maintain the same pace of invitations for the rest of 2026. Now, that does not guarantee that Express Entry will slow down the pace invitations – but it would be understandable if they did.

Based on current admissions targets, processing times, and application inventories, there is a strong argument that Canada already has enough high-skilled immigration applications either in processing or already invited to meet much its 2026 admissions goals.

This does not mean draws will stop, but it could mean smaller draws, less frequent draws, or a heavier focus on category-based selection rounds later this year. We cannot predict the future, but we can look at the data and the historic trends to assess the possibilities.

Let’s dive in.

2026 has Already Been an Unusually Active Year for Express Entry

As of May 15, IRCC has issued 72,006 Express Entry invitations in 2026. That is a remarkably fast start compared to recent years.

So far in 2026, Express Entry has issued more ITAs than in any other year since the system launched in 2015.

The raw invitation totals are significant on their own. But – the more important comparison may be how those invitations relate to Canada’s immigration targets.

Canada’s 2026 Federal High Skilled admissions target includes Express Entry-aligned programs like the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), Federal Skilled Worker program (FSW), and Federal Skilled Trades program (FST). This also includes invitations issued through Express Entry’s category-based draws. For 2026, the total target for Federal High Skilled admissions is set at 109,000 permanent residents.

Of the 72,006 invitations issued so far in 2026, 4,115 were issued to PNP candidates, while 67,891 were issued to candidates in other Federal High Skilled programs.

That means IRCC had already issued ITAs equal to roughly 62 percent of its annual Federal High Skilled target by May 15.

Notably, despite Canada lowering its overall admissions targets for immigration in 2026, the Federal High Skilled target is still at the upper range for recent years:

So, overall targets remain relatively steady. But – the pace of invitations is still incredibly high compared to other years.

In fact, the closest comparison appears to be 2021. That year, Canada’s Federal High Skilled target was 108,500, almost identical to the 2026 target of 109,000. By May 15, 2021, IRCC had issued 66,475 invitations, representing about 60 percent of the year’s total invitations.

Here’s what’s important: later in 2021, Express Entry draw activity slowed considerably, and non-PNP Express Entry draws eventually paused completely from September through the end of the year.

The immigration landscape was obviously very different during the pandemic, and 2021 should not be treated as a blueprint for 2026. Still, it does show that IRCC has historically adjusted invitation patterns after front-loading large numbers of ITAs earlier in the year.

Admissions Targets Matter More than Weekly Draw Patterns

One of the biggest misconceptions about Express Entry is that invitations and admissions happen at the same time – they don’t. In fact, an Express Entry candidate who received an ITA today, likely wouldn’t be counted as a permanent resident admission until 2027.

That’s because receiving an ITA is only the beginning of the permanent residence process. Candidates still need time to gather documents, submit their application, complete biometrics and medical exams, and wait for processing. As well, one ITA may result in multiple admissions – as the ITA allows PR applications to be submitted by the principal applicant, their partner, and their dependent children.

According to IRCC’s current posted processing times, major Express Entry streams like CEC and FSW are currently taking around seven months to process.

A candidate who receives an ITA in May has 60 days to submit their PR application – and many candidates require most of those 60 days. If processing then takes another seven months, their landing as a permanent resident may happen in early 2027 rather than 2026.

This means that even if Canada has issued enough ITAs to hit its admission targets for 2026 – soon the country is going to need to start ensuring there are candidates to admit in 2027, as well.

Canada Already Has Huge Processing Inventories of High-Skilled Applications

Current inventory numbers may also help explain why IRCC could decide to slow invitation activity later this year. As of May 12, IRCC’s processing times and application inventories included:

Taken together, these numbers suggest Canada already has a substantial pipeline of high-skilled immigration applications moving through the system. Not all applications will be approved, of course. Some candidates withdraw, some applications are refused, and admissions planning operates across multiple years.

But – it’s worth noting that if IRCC processed all of the applications currently in its inventories, there would already be enough admissions to meet 2026 targets. That could reduce pressure for IRCC to continue issuing very large invitation rounds every few weeks.

An Express Entry Slowdown Would Not Necessarily Affect All Categories Equally

Even if overall Express Entry invitation activity slows, some candidates could continue benefiting from category-based draws. So far in 2026, IRCC has conducted draws targeting categories including:

• French-language proficiency
• Healthcare and social services occupations
• Trades occupations
• Senior managers with Canadian work experience
• Physicians with Canadian work experience

Meanwhile, several eligible categories had still not been targeted as of mid-May, including:

• Researchers with Canadian work experience
• Skilled military recruits
• STEM occupations
• Education occupations
• Transport occupations

That distinction matters because IRCC may still want flexibility to address specific labour shortages even if it slows the overall pace of invitations. A slower pace of CEC and PNP draws would not necessarily mean the end of targeted opportunities for candidates in priority occupations.

What Could This Mean for Express Entry Candidates?

For candidates already in the pool, the biggest impact of slower draws would likely be on CRS scores and wait times. If IRCC conducts fewer large draws, the CRS score cut-off will likely increase.

In fact, we’ve already seen the number of candidates increasing among competitive CRS score ranges.

The latest Express Entry pool update (as of May 10) shows 15,659 candidates with a CRS score between 501 and 600. This is a moderate increase over the 13,860 profiles that were in this range on April 26. This number will increase the longer IRCC holds off on a draw, inevitably pushing the CRS score cut-off higher.

Candidates with lower scores will face longer waits for invitations, particularly if CEC draws become less frequent. For many candidates, this may be a good time to focus on strengthening their profile rather than waiting passively for scores to fall.

Improving language test results, learning a second language, gaining additional skilled work experience, pursuing a provincial nomination, or becoming eligible for a category-based draw could all become increasingly important if invitation rounds become more selective later in 2026.

Could Express Entry Draws Speed Up Again Later This Year?

Absolutely. In fact, there could be an Express Entry draw next week! We cannot know for sure – and this article is just an analysis of the data we have. There’s no way to know IRCC’s upcoming plans or decisions with absolute certainty.

Immigration planning can shift quickly, and Express Entry patterns do not always move in straight lines. Labour market needs, political priorities, application inventories, and processing capacity can all influence IRCC’s decisions throughout the year.

Canada also continues to face long-term labour shortages in many sectors, and IRCC still has several category-based pathways it may want to prioritize more aggressively before the end of 2026.

For now, though, the numbers suggest IRCC may not need to maintain the unusually fast pace of invitations seen earlier this year.

That does not guarantee that Express Entry is slowing down. In years like 2021, the second half slowed considerably. Meanwhile, in years like 2025, draws slowed in the middle of the year before picking up again at the end of the year. This means that Express Entry candidates should prepare for a variety of possibilities and be ready for all the unpredictability IRCC is known to inject!