6 Months Into 2024- Where Do We Stand with Express Entry Draws?

Key Takeaways

• 43,454 candidates received an invitation to apply (ITA) from January 1st, 2024 to June 30th, 2024, around 28% less than the same period last year.
• There were 20 draws in total- 9 general, all program draws, 4 French- proficiency, 1 STEM, 1 Healthcare, 1 Transportation and 1 Agricultural.
• The lowest CRS score in a general all-program draw was 524 vs 481 between January 1st, 2023 to June 30th, 2023.
• We should see a bump in the # of ITA’s issued in the second half of 2024.

Increase in the Number of Invitations Issued

In the first 6 months of 2024, Immigration, Refugee and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) issued 43,454 ITA’s. This is 28% fewer ITA’s than the same period last year, even though the immigration targets for 2024 are substantially higher than 2023. This lower number of ITA’s is down to the lack of draws that took place in May and June of 2024.

On this basis, we expect IRCC to increase the number of ITA’s they issue in the 2nd half of 2024 to remain on track for immigration targets. Based on our estimate, IRCC will need to issue roughly 70,000 ITA’s in the second half of 2024 to keep up with the  2024 to 2025 immigration targets (assuming they do not decrease the 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan, which will be published in November 2024). 

Why Do Immigration Targets Matter?

Each year, IRCC releases its immigration level targets. In 2023, the target for Federal High Skilled workers (that is those that qualify under the Federal Skilled Worker Program, Federal Skilled Trades Program, and Canadian Experience Class (CEC)), was 82,880. The target for 2024 is 110,770 and for 2025, it is 117,500. Note- this excludes those who qualify under a provincial nomination program (PNP). 

Although these numbers represent the target number of individuals who will land in Canada as permanent residents, we use these targets along with historical data when we estimate the number of invitations IRCC will issue. 

According to data from the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, for the first few months of 2024, Canada welcomed on average 15,000 economic immigrants a month, therefore over a 6 month period, roughly 90,000 economic immigrants entered Canada. In this case, economic immigrants include all economic programs, except for Provincial Nominee Program applicants. Based on this number, Canada is on track to reach its immigration target for economic immigrants for 2024. Given the Immigration targets are higher in 2025, we can conclude that IRCC will need to issue more ITA’s in 2024 than it did in 2023. 

How Many Draws Can We Expect?

More ITA’s do not necessarily mean more draws. It could be that IRCC conducts the same number of draws but issues more ITA’s per draw. If IRCC returns to its previously established schedule of 2 draws every 2 weeks, we expect to see a total of 26 draws in the second half of 2024. 

According to IRCC internal reports Moving2Canada has previously reported on, ITA’s will be distributed as follows:

• General: no target specified. 
• French: 30%
• Healthcare: 15%
• STEM: 25%
• Trade: 5%
• Transport: 3%
• Agriculture and Agri-Food: 0.5%.

If we distribute the 26 remaining draws according to this, we can expect the following: 

• General/ PNP/ CEC: 4 more draws.
• French: 7 to 8 more draws.
• Healthcare: 3 to 4 more draws.
• STEM: 6 more.
• Trade: 1 more draw.
• Transport: 1 draw.
• Agriculture and Agri-Food: 1 draw.

In July, we have already seen 4 draws, a PNP, Trade, Healthcare and French proficiency, with a total of 9,670 ITA’s being issued. 

What Can Expect from the CRS Cut-Off?

If we do see more ITA’s issued from July to December 2024, we may also see the CRS cut-off score decrease. 

For general, all-program draws, the lowest CRS score between January 1st, 2023 to June 30th, 2023, was 481. For January 1st, 2024 to June 30th, 2024, the lowest CRS was 522. While we do not expect the CRS score for general, all-program draws to go as low as 481, we may see it move closer to the 500 mark. 

What Type of Draws Do We Expect To See More Of? 

If the last couple of months are anything to go by, we can expect to see more PNP and CEC draws in the second half of 2024. This would be in line with commentary coming from IRCC whereby they have committed to helping more temporary residents transition to PR status. 

We expect a large portion of category-based draws to target French proficiency applicants. To date, just under 15,000 ITA’s have been issued under the French proficiency category. We anticipate a similar volume and cadence to continue through the second half of 2024. 

Announcement of New Categories.

Following an internal IRCC survey, we can expect an announcement towards the end of 2024, introducing new categories eligible for the category-based draws. Based on the survey, we expect Education to be introduced as a category, as well as some other industries. To learn more, check out our detailed review of this survey. 

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