Massive Drop in Canada’s 2025 Immigration Numbers

The sharp drop follows IRCC’s move to cap international students, tighten work permit rules, and transition more temporary residents to permanent status. The goal: ease pressure on housing, services, and infrastructure while bringing immigration to “sustainable levels.”

This article breaks down the student vs. worker numbers, explains the policy changes behind the decline, and explores what it means for Canada’s immigration future.

Key Takeaways:

• New study permit arrivals dropped 70% in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, while new work permit arrivals fell 52%.
• Despite a huge drop in new arrivals, Canada’s overall Temporary Resident population has barely budged.
• Between January and June 2025, over 100,000 former temporary residents became permanent residents.

Study Permit Arrivals See 70% Drop

From January to June 2025, only 36,417 new study permits were issued, representing a 70% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, when 125,034 permits were issued.

This marks a significant shift for Canada, where international students have long been a pillar of the temporary resident system.

Key policy changes impacting student numbers include:

• Annual Cap on International Students: Introduced in 2024, with a further 10% reduction in 2025.
• Provincial Attestation Letters (PAL): Provinces are now required to issue PALs to international students, but they are limited in how many they can issue.
• Spousal Open Work Permit (SOWP) Restrictions: Spouses of students have reduced access to work permits, making studying in Canada less desirable.
• Higher Financial Requirements: International students must now show higher proof of funds before coming to Canada.
• Tighter Application Scrutiny: Enhanced review of acceptance letters to prevent fraud
• Removal of the Student Direct Stream pathway, which streamlined study permit applications from over 14 countries.

Collectively, these measures have made studying in Canada more challenging, which has contributed to the decrease.

Work Permit Arrivals Cut by Half

The first half of 2025 also saw a 51% decrease in new work permit arrivals. There were just 119,234 new work permit arrivals between January and June 2025, compared to 245,137 in the same period of 2024.

This decline reflects changes to both the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP):

• Refusal-to-Process Rules: Since September 2024, employers have been limited to hiring low-wage temporary foreign workers for a maximum of 10% of their workforce (20% in certain in-demand sectors). In addition, businesses in urban areas where unemployment is above 6% may not be able to hire through the TFWP altogether.
• PGWP Reforms: Post-Graduation Work Permit eligibility now aligns with labour market needs, though the impact this had on January to June 2025 numbers is questionable, considering it only impacts those who submitted their study permit after November 1, 2024.
• SOWP Restrictions for Spouses: Spouses of temporary workers also face tighter work permit eligibility criteria.

Overall Impact: How Fewer New Arrivals Are Changing Canada’s Temporary Resident Population

While Canada saw 214,520 fewer new international students and workers arrive in the first half of 2025, a 58% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, the overall population of temporary residents in the country has only fallen slightly.

As of June 30, 2025, there were 2,363,000 people in Canada holding either a study permit, a work permit, or both, down just 1.5% from 2,398,880 in July 2024.

Here’s how the numbers break down:

• Study permit only: 546,562 people (down 12% from 619,147 in July 2024)
• Work permit only: 1,504,573 people (up 6% from 1,423,269 in July 2024)
• Both permits: 312,010 people (down 12% from 356,464 in July 2024)

One reason the total temporary resident population hasn’t fallen sharply despite fewer arrivals is the duration of permits themselves. Study permits can be valid for up to three or four years, post-graduation work permits (PGWP) range from eight months to three years, and many employer-specific work permits are also valid for multiple years. As a result, people who received permits in the last two or three years continue to be counted among temporary residents today, and will be for some time, slowing the immediate impact of reduced new arrivals.

Other Key Insights from this Data

Another major factor shaping Canada’s temporary resident population is the government’s push to transition more people already in the country to permanent resident (PR) status.

Between January and June 2025, over 100,000 former temporary residents became permanent residents, well above IRCC’s annual in-Canada target of 82,980 for the entire year. This reflects the broader strategy to reduce the temporary population to sustainable levels while creating permanent pathways for those already living and working in Canada.

This shift also helps explain the low number of Canadian Experience Class (CEC) Express Entry draws in 2025. To date, only 20,850 CEC Invitations to Apply (ITAs) have been issued. For many waiting applicants, this slowdown has been frustrating, but the recent data suggest IRCC had already met its in-Canada targets for 2025 early in the year, leaving little need for additional large CEC draws.

The silver lining? Many ITAs issued in the second half of 2025 will now count toward 2026 immigration targets instead of adding to 2025 totals. That means we could see an uptick in CEC invitations as the year closes, though if 2024 is any indication, expectations should remain low.

What This Means for Future New Temporary Residents

Canada’s next Immigration Levels Plan, expected in late October or early November 2025, will set the tone for the years ahead. But current data already shows a clear shift: fewer new temporary residents.

For 2025, the target is 673,650 new temporary residents. So far, Canada is well below pace with around 155,000 arrivals in the first half of the year, though August and December typically bring the biggest waves of international students.

Looking ahead, targets will keep dropping:

• 2025: 673,650 arrivals
• 2026: 516,600 arrivals
• 2027: 543,600 arrivals

Much of this reduction will come from tighter controls on international student numbers. New data shows study permit refusal rates have risen to 52%, and because many work permits, such as spousal open work permits (SOWP) and post-graduation work permits (PGWP), are linked to student status, these higher refusal rates will have a knock-on effect across all new temporary resident arrivals.