IRCC’s Express Entry Studies Show Strong Economic Outcomes — But Is the Data Still Relevant?

IRCC has released four studies examining how immigrants selected through Express Entry have performed in Canada’s labour market. The findings are largely positive.

They suggest that Express Entry has been successful at selecting immigrants who are well positioned to succeed economically. Strong language skills, Canadian work experience, education, and higher earnings before becoming a permanent resident were all associated with better outcomes.

But there is an important limitation. Although the research was published in 2026, it doesn’t include any data beyond 2022. Why is this a problem? Because the data pre-dates the introduction of category-based Express Entry draws in 2023. The Express Entry system looks very different today than it did back then. Plus, 2020-2022 numbers were likely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and may not be determinative.

That raises an important question: how useful is this research for deciding who Canada should invite for permanent residence now?

Key Takeaways

• Express Entry immigrants historically had higher employment earnings than economic immigrants selected outside Express Entry.
• Strong language skills, Canadian work experience, and high pre-PR earnings were associated with better economic outcomes.
• Some CRS bonus factors had little association with short- to medium-term labour market outcomes.
• The research does not include immigrants selected through category-based Express Entry, which was introduced in 2023.

Express Entry Immigrants Earn More Than Those Selected Outside Express Entry

One study compared the labour market outcomes of Express Entry immigrants with economic immigrants selected outside Express Entry.

In the 2022 tax year, Express Entry immigrants from every admission cohort between 2015 and 2021 were more likely to have employment income than non-Express Entry immigrants.

People who became permanent residents through Express Entry also earned more. Express Entry immigrants admitted between 2016 and 2021 earned $17,200 to $32,500 more per year than non-Express Entry immigrants.

After accounting for differences in education, language ability, occupation, previous Canadian earnings, and other characteristics, Express Entry immigrants still earned an average of 16 percent more.

Pre-PR Earnings Are a Strong Predictor of Earnings After PR

The study also found a strong relationship between how much Express Entry immigrants earned before and after becoming permanent residents.

Express Entry immigrants who had earned at least $100,000 while they were temporary residents went on to earn around 1.6 times as much as those with no Canadian employment earnings before PR.

However, Express Entry immigrants who earned less than $25,000 before PR subsequently earned 18 percent less than those with no previous Canadian earnings. IRCC notes that this lower-earning group was largely made up of people who had held study permits, or both study and work permits.

Which CRS Factors Are Most Strongly Linked to Economic Success?

Another study examined how factors used in the Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) were associated with employment and earnings after permanent residence.

First official language ability had a strong relationship with earnings. Express Entry immigrants with CLB 9 earned around 10 percent less than those with CLB 10 or higher. The difference increased to 24 percent for CLB 8, 37 percent for CLB 7, and 44 percent for CLB 6.

Canadian work experience was also associated with higher earnings.

Compared with Express Entry immigrants who had no Canadian experience, those with one year earned around 14 percent more. The difference increased with additional experience, reaching around 28 percent for those with five or more years. However, the additional benefit generally became smaller after four years, except among Canadian Experience Class (CEC) immigrants.

Higher education was generally associated with higher earnings, particularly for those with master’s degrees, but it did not consistently increase the likelihood of having employment income.

Job offers were associated with higher earnings. Federal Skilled Worker Program immigrants with job offers earned 24 percent more than those without one. The difference was 10 percent for Canadian Experience Class immigrants.

Some CRS Bonus Factors Had Little Connection to Economic Outcomes

Several factors that provide additional CRS points had a weaker relationship with labour market outcomes.

The study showed that those who received French-language bonus points actually earned 14 percent less than other Express Entry candidates. Sibling points were associated with slightly lower employment incidence and 7 percent lower earnings, while Canadian education bonus points were associated with slightly lower employment incidence but no difference in earnings.

Express Entry Immigrants Were More Likely to Stay in Their Intended Occupations

A third study examined whether economic immigrants ended up working in the occupations they intended to work in when they became permanent residents.

Around 35 percent of Express Entry immigrants remained in their intended occupation, compared with 27 percent of economic immigrants selected outside Express Entry.

Occupational Retention Varied by Type of Work and EE Program

Among Express Entry immigrants who intended to work in STEM, 52 percent remained in their intended occupation. The retention rate was 46 percent for health occupations and 37 percent for trades.

This is particularly relevant to the current Express Entry system because IRCC now specifically targets candidates in certain occupations, including healthcare and trades, through category-based selection.

CEC immigrants had the highest occupational retention rate among the Express Entry programs, at 38 percent, compared with 36 percent for FSW immigrants and 33 percent for PNP immigrants.

How Relevant Is This Data to Express Entry in 2026?

There will always be a delay between selecting immigrants and having enough data to measure their economic outcomes in Canada. Additionally, COVID-19 caused major disruptions to Canada’s labour market during the 2020-2022 period. This makes it harder to assume that outcomes from those years will be repeated under today’s labour market conditions.

But the biggest limitation of these studies is that Express Entry has changed significantly in the last few years.

The Research Pre-Dates Category-Based Express Entry

Two of the studies use 2021 Census data and examine immigrants admitted between 2015 and 2020. Another includes immigrants admitted till 2022. None includes candidates selected through category-based Express Entry, which was introduced in 2023.

Express Entry selection looks very different today. IRCC hasn’t conducted any FSW, FST, or general Express Entry draws for over two years. Instead, the focus has shifted to CEC and category-based selection.

As of September 24, IRCC has issued 128,982 Invitations to Apply (ITAs) in 2026. Of those, 53,250 were issued through CEC draws.

Another 75,732 ITAs, or 58.7 percent of all invitations, were issued through category-based draws. French-language draws alone accounted for 50,500 ITAs.

That means most candidates invited through Express Entry in 2026 were selected through categories that did not exist back then. Moreover, until 2023, CRS scores played a much bigger role in selection. This makes the economic outcomes in the new studies difficult to compare directly with the candidates Canada is selecting today.

French-Language Selection Has Changed Significantly

The French-language findings are particularly important in this context.

IRCC’s research found that Express Entry immigrants who received French-language bonus points earned 14 percent less than those who did not receive the bonus. French bonus points were also not associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of having employment income.

The research does not prove that candidates selected through French-language draws will have poorer economic outcomes.

But it does raise an important question. If French bonus points were historically a weak predictor of economic outcomes, how will candidates selected specifically for their French ability perform under the current system?

Occupation-Based Selection May Not Guarantee That Workers Will Stay in Their Sector

The occupational findings are also relevant to today’s category-based selection system.

Express Entry immigrants in STEM, health and trades were more likely to remain in their intended occupations than comparable non-Express Entry immigrants. The retention rate was 52 percent for STEM, 46 percent for health occupations and 37 percent for trades.

All three are currently priorities under category-based selection, which IRCC uses in part to address long-term labour shortages.

This creates a potential limitation with occupation-based selection. Selecting candidates because their experience is needed in a particular sector does not guarantee they will continue working in that sector after becoming permanent residents.

Proposed CRS Reforms Could Address Some of These Findings

IRCC is also considering significant changes to CRS scoring. Several of the changes under consideration relate directly to factors examined in the research.

For example, IRCC is considering removing or changing additional points for French proficiency, Canadian education, siblings in Canada and spousal characteristics. These were among the factors that showed weaker relationships with economic outcomes in the studies.

IRCC is also considering giving more weight to Canadian work experience and bringing back job-offer points for high-wage occupations.

However, even with the proposed CRS changes, there’s no certainty that candidates selected through today’s primarily category-based system will achieve the same economic outcomes as those selected under the earlier Express Entry system.

The question that remains is how much weight findings from an earlier version of Express Entry should carry when IRCC makes decisions about who Canada selects today.