More Than 50% of FSW Applications Refused in 2026: Are French-Language Draws to Blame?

After obtaining a dataset detailing IRCC refusal rates^*, Oleg Schindler (RCIC #R706744), published a startling analysis revealing that in the first six months of 2026, IRCC refused more than 50 percent of all FSW applications. Let’s break it down.

Before we get into this bombshell dataset, I need to begin by thanking Oleg Schindler for his reporting on this issue. Schindler runs his own immigration consultancy, Schindler Visa Services Corp., where he specializes in economic immigration pathways.

In his analysis, Schindler notes that from January through June 2026, IRCC finalized 73,523 applications for permanent residence submitted through Express Entry. 49,814 were approved, while 23,145 were refused. That’s a refusal rate of 31.5 percent.

That refusal rate figure accounts for all Express Entry-aligned programs, including Federal Skilled Worker (FSW), Federal Skilled Trades (FST), Canadian Experience Class (CEC), and Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP).

But – the refusal rate becomes even more telling if we drill down per program.

PNPs had a refusal rate of 2.9 percent (unsurprising, considering provincial nominees already need to pass a rigorous check from their nominating province). CEC applicants had a refusal rate of 15.7 percent – notable, but still within seemingly normal figures.

The shocker comes in the data for FSW & FST applicants, who had a refusal rate of 56.0 percent. In fact, the refusal rate for FSW & FST applicants has increased by nine times since 2022 when they had a 6.2 percent rate of refusal.

So – what exactly is going on? Let’s break down Schindler’s data and analysis.

A 56 Percent Refusal Rate for FSW & FST

It seems staggering, but data doesn’t lie, and this IRCC dataset shows that – yes – in the first six months of 2026, FSW & FST applications had a 56.0 percent refusal rate.

The dataset is large enough to hold statistical significance, too, with 32,134 finalized applications from FSW/FST candidates in the first half of the year. Of those, nearly 18,000 were refused.

And – notably, these figures only refer to applications that were deemed “complete” and then “refused” later in the process. In fact, the percentage of applications submitted and deemed “incomplete” has been falling in recent years. In 2022, 6.03 percent of all submitted Express Entry applications were “incomplete,” while in the first six months of 2026, the number of “incomplete” applications dropped to only 3.56 percent.

This means that applications are being submitted with the required documents and information, but upon closer examination those documents and/or information don’t meet program requirements.

Note: This dataset combines FSW and FST applications into a single bucket. The majority of these applications are likely FSW candidates, as FST were rarely invited. For example, in 2024, a total of 98,903 ITAs were issued of which only six were awarded to FST candidates.

Before we dive into possible explanations, let’s look at how this data compares to previous years.

How Does This Compare to Recent Years

2026 has the highest refusal rate on record for FSW, FST, and CEC applicants. However, the high refusal rate hasn’t come out of nowhere. It started rising in 2024, had a significant increase in 2025, and then skyrocketed in 2026:

As illustrated in the above table, FSW refusal rates increased from 5.7 percent in 2023, to 9.2 percent in 2024. This alone might not be too much cause for concern, but the following year refusal rates more than tripled to 33 percent, nearly doubling again this year up to the mind-boggling rate of 56 percent.

CEC rates have also risen considerably, from 3.9 percent in 2024 to 15.7 percent in 2026. While not as staggering, it’s worth noting for all those applying through the CEC program.

PNP refusal rates have remained low. Again, this is likely due to the fact that all PNP applicants first have to pass through a rigorous approval process conducted by their nominating province.

Are French-Language Draws Behind the High Refusal Rate for FSW?

In his analysis, Oleg Schindler hypothesizes that IRCC’s emphasis on French-language draws in recent years has impacted the refusal rate for FSW.

In recent years, IRCC has set high admissions targets for French-speaking immigrants looking to settle outside Quebec. In 2026, the French-speaking target is 9 percent of all admissions, a figure that will increase to 12 percent by 2029.

In order to meet these high targets, Canada has introduced a French-language category for Express Entry draws. To be considered, Express Entry candidates must have an approved French-language test showing a minimum score equal to the Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) level 7 in all four abilities (speaking, reading, writing, and listening).

Of course, to receive an invitation, candidates must also meet minimum eligibility requirements and have a Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score above the cut-off for a given draw. Notably, the CRS score cut-off for French draws is regularly more than 100 points lower than the cut-off for CEC draws.

In 2025 and 2026, the French-language category has become extremely popular among Express Entry draws.

As of September 9, 2026, IRCC has issued 50,500 ITAs through French-speaking draws in 2026. This is 40 percent of all ITAs and roughly equal to the number of CEC ITAs issued over the same period, demonstrating how much of a priority French language has become in Express Entry.

French-Speaking Candidates in Africa and Haiti Have Added Challenges with Documentation

French-speaking candidates applying from francophone countries in Africa, as well as in Haiti, have a higher refusal rate than their European and Asian counterparts. Schindler suggests that difficulties obtaining the required documentation may help explain these higher refusal rates.

Oleg Schindler explains in his analysis:

“And now the uncomfortable part. Outside Europe, the main reservoir of French speaking candidates is francophone Africa and Haiti. In many of those countries the documentary infrastructure is objectively weaker. Proving work experience with a reference letter carrying every required element, reconciling it against tax records, obtaining a certificate an officer will accept without questions, is simply harder there than in Europe or India. Not because the people are worse, but because the institutions are what they are.”

To illustrate his point, Schindler examines refusal rates by country from 2022 through 2026. He does this for all economic programs, not just Express Entry, but the data still paints a useful picture:

There is a clear discrepancy between refusal rates for the 15 francophone African countries and Haiti versus the control group Schindler compares from his dataset.

Although we cannot be certain of the reasons for refusal, nor can we assume this fully explains the rise in Express Entry refusal rates, the numbers are so large that they must be treated as significant.

For applicants, especially those from the countries with a high rate of refusal, this further emphasizes the importance of submitting a complete PR application with all required documentation that clearly meets program requirements.

If you’re unsure about your application or you want someone to review it prior to submission, we recommend speaking to a regulated Canadian immigration consultant, like Mr. Schindler, or our own in-house consultant, Rebecca Major, who has extensive experience preparing and filing Express Entry applications.

*Please note that our team has requested a copy of the dataset used by Mr. Oleg Schindler in his analysis. We have not yet received this data and therefore have been unable to verify the dataset. If new information becomes available we will update this article.