Finding the “In-Canada” Focus: What the 2025 Data Shows

At the time, the government was clear that this focus would be driven largely through the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), alongside some regional pathways. The message was straightforward, and energizing. Temporary residents already in Canada would be prioritized for permanent residence.

But when CEC invitations began rolling out in 2025 (or more the point, didn’t!), the early optimism started to give way to confusion.

In total, only 35,850 ITAs were issued through CEC draws in 2025. And with recently released IRCC data, we know that just under 50,000 permanent residents were admitted via Canadian Experience Class last year.

But something doesn’t add up. IRCC’s published data shows that in 2025,188,000 temporary residents transitioned to permanent residence. This represents 48% of all new PR admissions.

So this got me thinking. Did an in-Canada focus happen just not through the pathway expected?

Time for what I love most, data diving!

The Big Picture: Temporary Residents Transitioning to PR in 2025

Now, that 188,000 figure IRCC quotes includes all transitions, including asylum claimants.

To isolate predominantly economic applicants, I looked specifically at transitions from the following cohorts:

· International students

· International Mobility Program (IMP) work permit holders

· Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) holders

When we isolate those groups, we see that 166,725 students and workers transitioned to PR in 2025. That’s 42% of total admissions for 2025. That’s still a significant share.

But is 42% enough to describe 2025 as having an in-Canada focus? To answer that, I needed to look at how this compares historically.

A Look at Historical Trends

Let’s put 2025 in context.

Admissions vs. TR-to-PR transitions (students + workers):

Aside from the 2021 pandemic pivot, when Canada relied heavily on in-Canada applicants due to border restrictions, there has been a gradual rise in the share of temporary residents transitioning to PR.

In 2025, at 42%, it’s the highest share outside of 2021. That does look like somewhat of an in-Canada focus, just not necessarily a CEC focus.

Where Did They Come From?

So if the 166,000 didn’t largely come though CEC, how did they come? Let’s break down 2025 transitions by category.

International Students

20,780 students transitioned to PR in 2025. 17,585 did so via economic pathways.

IMP Work Permit Holders

132,155 total transitions in 2025. 120,315 of these made that transition through economic pathways, with the majority settled in Ontario, BC, and Quebec.

TFWP Holders

13,790 transitions happened in 2025, almost all via economic programs.

So the vast majority of student and worker transitions are happening through economic streams. If not CEC as the economic pathway, then what?

It’s Often PNP, Not CEC

Since IMP holders make up the bulk of transitions, I focused there.

Here’s how IMP transitions were distributed by pathway:

IMP to a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

PNP has consistently been a major route, especially post-pandemic.

IMP to Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

CEC transitions surged in 2021. Since then, it has stabilized, but not dominated IMP transitions

IMP to Skilled Worker

Skilled Worker (likely through the FSWP) remains a steady part of the mix, but again, not dominant.

So What Did An “In-Canada Focus” in 2025 Actually Mean?

To answer this question, let’s rule out what it didn’t mean. First, it didn’t mean endless or even massive CEC draws. It meant that IRCC more consciously selecting people who are already here, just not always through CEC. Instead, there was heavy reliance on admissions via the Provincial Nominee Programs. This comes as quite a surprise given PNPs saw their allocations slashed in the 2025 immigration levels plan, from a notional target of 120,000 to an actual target of 55,000.

What This Means for You

If you are hoping to transition from TR status to PR status, you can’t think about a CEC application in isolation anymore.

If you’re eligible for both CEC and a Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), you should consider pursuing both. Optimize your PNP profile the same way you would your Express Entry profile. In today’s system, they are equal, and in many cases, PNP may even offer a clearer path.

Will This In-Canada Focus Continue into 2026?

I think so, yes. Even though the 2026 Immigration Levels Plan doesn’t explicitly repeat the same “in-Canada focus” language, the direction coming from IRCC hasn’t changed. The strategy of transitioning talent already in Canada remains central.

Will CEC play a role? Absolutely. Just look at the latest additions to the category-based selection system. We now have three categories that require Canadian work experience, up from none. (Technically, the physicians category was announced in December 2025, though no draw was held last year)

But CEC will not be the only lever.

The government has also signaled approximately 33,000 spots aimed at transitioning applicants in rural areas to PR status. We don’t yet have full program details. But if implemented as expected, this could meaningfully increase in-Canada transitions in 2026 and 2027.

And finally, there is PNP. Allocations increased from 55,000 in 2025 to 91,500 in the latest levels plan. And historically, a significant share of provincial nominations go to candidates already in Canada.

All of that to say, we did see somewhat of an increased in- Canada focus in 2025. Just not in the way it was expected.

It wasn’t powered by CEC, like we thought, and the immigration levels plan made us believe it would. That was obvious from the CEC invitation numbers from 2025. But there is still a lesson that should be taken. Explore every avenue.

Don’t rely on one pathway simply because it seems like the most direct or the most talked about. CEC is important, but it isn’t the only route. PNPs, category-based draws, regional programs, and emerging transition streams all play a role.

The opportunity to stay in Canada exists, but finding it, and positioning yourself to succeed in it, requires strategy, flexibility, and a willingness to look beyond the obvious.