December 2025 Student and Worker Numbers: A Year of Sharp Declines

Key Takeaways from the December 2025 Data 

• New international student arrivals saw a modest increase in December, consistent with school intake season. However, new student arrivals were significantly lower than 2024 numbers. 

• Work permit arrivals continued their decline from November, with lower monthly totals across both the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and International Mobility Program (IMP).  

• Temporary resident numbers are cooling as Canada works toward its target of reducing temporary residents to 5% of the population by 2027.  

• More than 188,000 temporary residents became permanent residents in 2025 — about 48% of all new PRs in that time. 

International Student Arrivals: A Smaller Winter Intake 

December is typically a winter intake month for many colleges and universities, and arrivals rose compared to November. However, compared to December 2024, international student arrivals dropped by a massive 67% in December 2025. 

December 2025 Snapshot 

• 9,665 new student arrivals

• 461,565 active study permit holders

• International student arrivals in 2025 were down approximately 61% compared to 2024

Here are the monthly student arrival numbers for 2025: 

2025 Student Arrivals in Light of the Immigration Levels Plan 

International student arrivals in 2025 totaled 115,470, a steep drop from IRCC’s original plan for the year. The 2025 target had been set at 305,900 student arrivals. So, the actual intake came in roughly 62% lower than planned. 

This sharp contraction aligned with the federal government’s commitment to lower temporary resident levels to 5% of Canada’s population by 2027. This steep reduction was the result of a national cap on new study permits, tighter provincial allocations, and increased oversight of designated learning institutions (DLIs). Another contributing factor was the higher-than-normal refusal rates for study permits in 2025. 

Changes to Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) eligibility rules and increased financial requirements also made Canada a less appealing study destination for international students. 

Looking ahead, the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan sets targets of 155,000 student arrivals in 2026 and 150,000 in both 2027 and 2028. This shows that the 2025 intake was roughly 25% below the 2026 target and more than 20% below the levels planned for 2027 and 2028. 

In other words, student arrivals have already fallen well beneath the government’s forward planning levels.  

Work Permit Arrivals: Year Ends at Lower Intake Levels 

December 2025 brought 9,735 new worker arrivals, closing out a year that saw significantly lower intake compared to 2024. 

New work permit holder arrivals in December declined 27% from the previous month and a massive 41% compared to December 2024. 

Breakdown by Stream 

Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)
– 2,135 arrivals in December
– 55,225 total in 2025 

International Mobility Program (IMP)
– 7,600 arrivals in December
– 153,880 total in 2025 

Both streams finished the year substantially below 2024 totals, with the decline being slightly more prominent in the IMP arrivals. Overall foreign worker arrivals in 2025 were down 47% compared to 2024. 

Here are the monthly new worker arrival numbers for 2025: 

2025 Worker Arrivals vs. the Immigration Levels Plan 

The sustained decline in worker arrivals throughout 2025 places Canada well below the government’s original plan for the year, as well as intake levels seen in 2023 and 2024.  

The 2025 target had been set at 367,750 worker arrivals, including 285,750 under the International Mobility Program (IMP) and 82,000 under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). In reality, total arrivals reached 209,105, around 43% below the planned level. 

The slowdown comes from a series of reforms introduced over the past year. These include restrictions on low-wage LMIA processing in some regions, higher wage thresholds under the TFWP, reduced eligibility for certain spousal open work permits, and changes to Post-Graduation Work Permit rules. Together, these measures reinforce the government’s recent strategy to reduce temporary residents to under five percent of the population. 

Looking at the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, Ottawa has set a target of 230,000 worker arrivals in 2026. This is further split into 60,000 under the TFWP and 170,000 under the IMP. The total worker arrival targets for 2027 and 2028 are lower still at 220,000. 

But the 2025 work permit holder arrivals were already almost 5% below the 2027 and 2028 targets, and 9% below the targeted intake for 2026. That means the reduction in temporary resident intake is not simply planned for the future, it is already reflected in real arrival data.  

Total Temporary Resident Population 

As of December 31, 2025, the total number of temporary residents holding valid study or work permits continued its downward trend: 

December 2025 Totals

• Study permit holders only: 461,565
• Work permit holders only: 1,463,805
• Both study and work permits: 229,650 

Together, that represents 2.155 million temporary residents in Canada — a 2% decline from November’s total.  

Based on Statistics Canada’s estimated year-end population of 41.6 million, temporary residents accounted for just over 5.2% of Canada’s population in December 2025. That places the country close to its stated goal of reducing temporary residents (including students, workers, and asylum seekers) to under five percent of the population by 2027.

While new arrivals dropped sharply through 2025, the overall temporary resident population has eased more gradually. This is because those who come to Canada as workers or students often choose to extend their temporary resident status in Canada (in the hope of qualifying for PR later). Those who don’t qualify to renew or extend their temporary stay must leave Canada. As a result, changes in new arrivals take time to translate into larger declines in the total temporary resident population.

TR-to-PR Transitions: Retention Remains Central 

From January through December 2025, more than 188,000 temporary residents transitioned to permanent residence, accounting for approximately 48% of all new permanent residents admitted this year. 

That share is slightly lower than in September, when in-Canada transitions accounted for closer to half of total admissions. Even so, nearly one in two new permanent residents in 2025 was already living in Canada. 

The pattern reinforces the government’s in-Canada focus. While new temporary arrivals declined sharply in 2025, permanent residence spaces continued to be filled in large part by people already contributing to the labour market and communities across the country. As Canada works toward lowering its temporary resident population, retaining talent already here remains a key pillar of the system heading into 2026. 

In absolute numbers, we expect declines in TR-to-PR transitions to continue, due to smaller intakes and stricter pathways from student to worker. That said, proportionately, these transitions should still lead the way as the government’s in-Canada focus continues. The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan has promised a one-time TR-to-PR transition for 33,000 temporary workers already in Canada. Details of how this transition will occur are expected over the coming months. 

What This Means for You 

If you’re planning to study or work in Canada, the 2025 data confirms that intake levels have already seen a significant drop. IRCC fell short of its 2025 target to bring in 673,650 new temporary residents (including 305,900 students and 367,750 workers) by 51%. 

Practically speaking, study permit caps and tighter work permit rules mean competition is stronger. It is more important than ever for applications need to be complete and carefully prepared. Canada remains open, but the system is more selective than it was in 2023 and 2024. 

If you’re already in Canada, the picture looks different. Nearly half of new permanent residents in 2025 were former temporary residents, showing that retaining talent remains a core focus. Exploring permanent residence options early, through Express Entry or a Provincial Nominee Program, is more important than ever. 

While temporary resident numbers are already tracking close to 5% of the population—the stated goal—this is also cause for worry. The Canadian education system relies heavily on tuition fees from international students, just as the labour market needs foreign workers to fill critical skill gaps. Any reduction in targets must be gradual, to allow the economy to adapt. We expect that IRCC will need to take measures to moderate numbers, so as not to overshoot student and worker target reductions. 

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