Canada Temporary Resident Population Tracker: Q4 2025 Update

We track these numbers using Statistics Canada’s official estimates. This shows how Canada is moving toward IRCC’s goal of bringing temporary residents below 5% of the total population by the end of 2027. It also explains what changes are driving the trend. 

Canada’s Temporary-Resident Share Falls to 6.85% 

As of October 1, 2025 (Q4 2025), Statistics Canada estimates that: 

• Total population: 41,575,585

• Non-permanent residents (NPRs): 2,847,737

• NPR share of population: ~6.85% 

The 6.8% share is down from 7.25% at the end of Q3 2025. But it is still well above the federal government’s goal of bringing the temporary-resident share to less than 5% by the end of 2027 

This decline is part of a clear turning point: Statistics Canada reports the none permanent resident (NPR) drop was driven by record-high outflows (339,505) exceeding inflows (163,026) in Q3. Essentially, more people are leaving or falling out of temporary status than new people are coming. 

The Trend: Four Consecutive Quarters of Decline 

After years of rapid growth, Canada’s non-permanent resident population has now declined for four straight quarters. It has fallen from a peak of 3.15 million in Q4 2024 to 2.85 million in Q4 2025. 

Here’s how the numbers have evolved recently: 

Table here

How Far Is Canada from the Less-Than-5% Target? 

Using the Q4 2025 population figure, a temporary-resident share of 5% would equal roughly: 

≈ 2.08 million non-permanent residents 

At 2.85 million, Canada would need to reduce the NPR population by around 770,000 people to fall below the federal target – based on today’s population size. That means further declines are almost certainly coming. 

How Work Permit Expiries Are Driving The NPR Decline 

Within the NPR group, the largest single category is work permit holders at 1,484,451. That means over half of all non-permanent residents in Canada (about 52%) were work permit holders in Q4 2025. 

IRCC ATIP data indicates that 639,069 work permits (including extensions) were scheduled to expire in 2025.  

It’s important to note that an expiring work permit does not automatically mean someone leaves Canada. Many people renew, switch to a different permit, change status (including becoming a permanent resident), or remain in Canada while awaiting a decision. 

But when rules tighten, and fewer people can renew or switch status, more of those “decision points” can lead to people leaving the temporary resident group. This helps explain why Statistics Canada has reported more outflows than inflows, and why the NPR total kept falling into Q4 2025. 

2026 raises the stakes even more. IRCC data suggests 536,774 work permits are scheduled to expire in 2026, with the highest quarterly total in Q1 (199,272). And the rules aren’t getting looser. These expiries will continue contributing to NPR declines, which is why the next quarterly population updates will be especially important to watch.   

Why the NPR Numbers Matter for Policy 

These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re the foundation of how the government measures progress toward its less than 5% target by 2027. 

The Immigration Levels Plan sets hard caps for permanent residents, but temporary residents are tracked differently. While IRCC controls who enters or stays through permit approvals, renewals, and asylum decisions, the actual population counts come from Statistics Canada. 

Using IRCC data, demographic modeling, and statistical adjustments, Statistics Canada estimates how many people are actually in Canada on temporary status at a given moment. By tracking this, we can track how IRCC is progressing toward its goal. 

The Changed Goal 

IRCC announced its goal in the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan to bring temporary residents to below 5% of the population by the end of 2027. This gives the government more room to adjust temporary resident numbers based on jobs and housing capacity and economic needs, while still sticking to a clear target. 

That new goal has set an ambitious benchmark, reducing the number from 5% to less than 5% of the total population, or roughly 2,078,779 people (based on Canada’s Q4 2025 population estimate of 41,575,585). Achieving this would require cutting the number by hundreds of thousands over the next two years. 

If you want to track how Canada’s TR population is trending, sign up for our newsletter to receive these quarterly updates, plus more insights on everything you need to know about what’s happening in Canadian immigration as it unfolds.