New Canada Population Figures Released. Why Is the Population Shrinking?

The recent StatsCan data shows that Canada’s population stood at 41.4 million people as of April 1, 2026, down from a record high of 41.7 million reached in July 2025.

The decline has attracted significant attention in recent weeks, with media outlets pointing to rising emigration linked to the federal government’s efforts to reduce both permanent and temporary resident admissions.

While Canada’s population has fallen over the past nine months, the longer-term picture looks quite different. Even after three consecutive quarters of decline, Canada remains home to millions more people than it was before the pandemic and has a population similar to what it had in 2024.

Canada’s Population has Declined for Three Straight Quarters

According to Statistics Canada, Canada’s population fell from 41,651,653 in the third quarter of 2025 to 41,417,056 in the second quarter of 2026.

That represents a decline of approximately 235,000 people over three consecutive quarters.

The decrease follows a period of exceptionally rapid population growth. Between 2022 and 2024, Canada experienced some of the fastest population growth rates in the G7, driven largely by rising levels of permanent and temporary resident admissions.

As a result, recent population declines stand out because they mark a departure from a trend Canadians have become accustomed to over the past several years.

Canada Still has Millions More Residents Than It Did Before the Pandemic

Recent headlines have focused on Canada’s population decline since 2025, but population figures look different when viewed over a longer period. In the second quarter of 2020, Canada’s population stood at approximately 38 million people. By the third quarter of 2025, that number had grown to more than 41.6 million.

Even after the recent decline, Canada’s population remains roughly 3.4 million higher than it was six years ago. The current population is also broadly comparable to where Canada stood in 2024, before growth accelerated further through 2025.

For many Canadians, that growth period coincided with rising housing demand and growing strains on infrastructure in some communities.

In response to the public pressure from these issues, Canada significantly reduced its immigration targets. This is despite the fact that lower immigration levels are not the primary factor behind reducing housing costs in Canada.

The population declines recorded over the past three quarters have reduced only a small portion of the growth accumulated since 2020.

Why Is Canada’s Population Shrinking?

Several factors are contributing to the recent decline in Canada’s population.

Fewer Temporary Residents

The biggest driver has been a reduction in the number of temporary residents living in Canada.

Over the past year and a half, the federal government has introduced measures aimed at reducing the number of international students and temporary foreign workers in the country. These policies were introduced as part of a broader effort to ease pressure on housing and public services.

Between January and March 2026, Canada saw approximately 75 percent fewer new student and worker arrivals than during the same period in 2024. As permits expire and fewer new temporary residents arrive, Canada’s temporary resident population has begun to shrink.

Lower Immigration Targets

The federal government has also reduced permanent resident admissions targets.

Under current plans, Canada intends to admit fewer new permanent residents than it did during the peak years of post-pandemic growth. For example, in the 2024-2026 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada aimed to welcome a record-high 500,000 new permanent residents per year.

In the most recent 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, Canada reduced those permanent resident admissions targets to 380,000 per year.

Permanent immigration remains a central part of Canada’s economic and demographic strategy, but the government has signalled that it wants overall population growth to proceed at a slower pace in the coming years.

More People Leaving Canada

Statistics Canada also reported higher levels of emigration, which refers to people leaving Canada to settle elsewhere.

More than 30,000 people emigrated during the first quarter of 2026, a relatively high number, but on pace with figures from the past several years.

Emigration has contributed to population decline, though it represents only one part of a broader demographic shift that also includes lower immigration levels and fewer temporary residents.

A Large Immigration Pipeline Remains in Place

Although Canada is reducing immigration levels, the country continues to process millions of immigration applications. According to the latest figures released by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), as of April 2026, Canada has a processing inventory of more than 1 million permanent residence applications and more than 800,000 temporary residence applications.

This data shows that as of April, IRCC was processing more than 100,000 applications submitted through Express Entry, with a similar number of applications in processing for provincial nominee programs, and family sponsorship streams.

Not all these applications will be approved, but these inventories include future immigrants who may eventually become permanent residents, even as the federal government works toward lower admissions targets.

For that reason, recent population declines should not be interpreted as a sign that immigration to Canada has stopped. Rather, they reflect a policy shift toward slower population growth after a period of rapid expansion.

Lower Population Growth is Impacting Canada’s Economy

The conversation around immigration has often focused on the challenges associated with rapid population growth, particularly housing affordability and infrastructure capacity. But – recently, Canada’s leaders have also begun discussing some of the broader economic effects associated with slower growth.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has acknowledged that lower immigration levels are contributing to weaker economic indicators in some areas. Earlier this month, Carney was asked about economic data pointing towards Canada entering a ‘technical recession’ (the economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters). Carney responded by placing some blame on lower immigration levels:

“We see some weakness, in part because of clear decisions by the government,” Carney told reporters. “So, we have taken back control of immigration. That’s meant the population growth has flattened. In fact, it’s been negative for the last two quarters.”

Well: now population growth has been negative for the last three quarters. But that’s only one part of the picture.

As population growth slows, some sectors may experience weaker demand than they did during the years of record immigration and temporary resident admissions. This can contribute to a slowdown in GDP growth.

The federal government is attempting to balance those economic considerations against concerns about housing supply and the capacity of public services. And – we can’t forget about Canada’s aging population and the need to balance the number of senior Canadians requiring medical care against a younger population of workers able to support Canada’s robust publicly-funded healthcare and social services.

It’s a complex portrait, but immigration has important impacts on these many issues.

Will the Population Keep Shrinking?

Whether Canada’s population continues to shrink will depend mostly on Canada’s public policy decisions relating to immigration. Current federal policy suggests temporary resident numbers will continue falling through 2026.

At the same time, Canada continues to admit new permanent residents and process a large inventory of immigration applications – but overall targets for permanent resident admissions remain lower than in recent years.

The result is a population trend that looks very different from the rapid growth experienced between 2022 and 2025.

Canada’s population is shrinking for now, but it remains near historic highs after one of the fastest growth periods in the country’s history. The coming years will provide a clearer picture of whether the recent decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a longer-term shift.